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LSZ249 Expires:202310052329;;563699 Fzus73 Kmqt 052319 Mwsmqt
marine weather statement national weather service marquette mi 719 pm edt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz248-249-266-052329- /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-231006t0000z/ 719 pm edt Thu oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Huron islands to marquette mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi...
the Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4677 8728 4691 8674 4647 8712 4645 8727 time...mot...loc 2318z 252deg 17kt 4685 8696 4666 8713

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 071231 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 731 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SHORT TERM
(Early this morning and today)
Issued at 152 AM EST THU DEC 7 2023

Key Messages: -Unseasonably warm today with gradually clearing skies from west to east.

A calm and quiet night has been observed across Upper Michigan tonight, with pockets of clouds and winds lightening. So far, temps have fallen into the upper 20s in the interior west and mostly the low to mid 30s elsewhere. Expecting some additional cooling with more widespread 20s as the lower cloud decks across the region continue to lift and scatter out.

Surface ridging overhead with increasing dry air building in today will support quiet weather across Upper Michigan. The main forecasting challenge is how warm will it get today. For a couple days, guidance has suggested most of the forecast area could climb in to the low to mid 40s given the 850mb airmass aloft could be +5- 7C today. 0z guidance and CAMs continue to suggest this possibility.
Areas that may remain in the 30s, albeit upper 30s, would be in the Keweenaw and eastern Upper Michigan. Otherwise, low to mid 40s should be expected. If this occurs, our office will end up breaking a weak record high temperature that has been in place since 1963.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM EST THU DEC 7 2023

Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough in the Rockies 00z Fri with a negative tilted shortwave in the northern plains.
This shortwave moves northeast into western Ontario 12z Fri with a closed low developing in the northern plains 00z Sat. This closed low then shears out with energy dropping south and east into the upper Great Lakes 18z Sat and then this northern branch moves northeast into northern Quebec 12z Sun while the southern branch drops into the southern plains. Have some slight chance pops in for the central and eastern cwa late tonight into Fri as a warm front moves through the area. Next system moves in for late Fri night into Sat. Highest pops look to be across the ern cwa and air is cold enough in the west for snow to fall. Lake enhancement sets up in northwest snow belts for Sat night.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough across the Great Lakes region down to the Gulf Coast in a split flow regime. The northern branch is across the upper Great Lakes with the southern branch having a shortwave on the Gulf Coast. The northern branch moves east and consolidates to produce a strong storm over New England and eastern Canada 12z Mon as the southern branch shortwave gets negative tilted over the sern U.S. System on Sunday from manual sfc progs shows the sfc low continuing its track further east than before with the sfc low near Erie, PA now at 12z Sun rather than Detroit from a previous model run or Houghton Lake MI from two days ago. Next shortwave at 12z Mon troughing near Lake Winnipeg which drops into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. This trough moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Wed with a closed low moving into the Desert SW. Upper ridging moves into the northern plains and upper Great Lakes 12z Thu. Temperatures will be near normal for this forecast period through Wed before going above normal for Thu.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 731 AM EST THU DEC 7 2023

Mostly VFR conditions are expected today. The exception will be MVFR or IFR visibilities at KSAW/KCMX thanks to some overnight fog development. But this should improve soon after sunrise. Tonight, increasing moisture under southerly or southeasterly flow will support some gusty winds, lowering cloud bases, and ceilings developing. KSAW should expect IFR conditions by late tonight. IFR ceilings at KCMX is less certain overnight, but future updates may include this update. Downsloping flow into KIWD is likely to limit ceiling development overnight, but low cloud bases are still expected.

MARINE
(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 241 AM EST THU DEC 7 2023

Winds stay less than 20 kt late through this evening before increasing late tonight and Friday as strong low pressure passes to our northwest. South winds will gust to 20 to 30 kt over the entire lake. The wind then falls below 20 knots Fri night into Sat morning before increasing to 20 to 30 knots Sat afternoon from the northwest. Northwest gales to 35 knots are possible late Sat afternoon into Sat night across the north central and eastern lake especially near the Keweenaw Peninsula. Northwest winds then stay below 30 knots on Sunday into Monday. Looks like the weekend system is continuing to track further east. Best chance for gales and strongest wind will be late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

CLIMATE
Issued at 241 AM EST THU DEC 7 2023

Record highs for WFO Marquette in Negaunee Township: Dec. 7: 38F (1963)
Dec. 8: 44F (1984)

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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