Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Packwood, WA

SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday night...Satellite imagery and surface observations as of early Sunday morning depict mostly clear skies with calm winds across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. This is supporting efficient radiational cooling with temperatures falling into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Will continue to see temperatures cool into the low to mid 30s these next few hours, mainly for sheltered valleys and rural areas outside urban cores. Frost Advisories remain in effect across the north Oregon Coast Range, Cascade foothills, Upper Hood River Valley, and southern Willamette Valley through 9 AM this morning, where temperatures of 33 to 36 degrees will support frost development. Anyone growing outdoor plants that are susceptible to frost damager should continue to cover plants or leave plants indoors if possible.

Expect dry and sunny conditions today through Tuesday as upper- level ridging amplifies offshore and extends over western OR/WA.
At the same time, an upper-level low will also be in place over eastern OR/WA and the Great Basin, resulting in thermal troughing along the coast and Cascade foothills. These thermal troughs will support light offshore winds from the north/northeast today with peak wind gusts of 25-35 mph along the Columbia River Gorge and 20-25 mph across the central/southern Willamette Valley. There is a low chance (10-20%) that peak wind gusts today exceeding 30 mph across the Willamette Valley. Temperatures will warm up a few degrees compared to yesterday with afternoon highs forecast to peak in the mid to upper 60s each day. Clear skies each night through Monday night will also lead to renewed chances for frost development as morning lows drop into the low to mid 30s again.
Will likely need additional Frost Advisories for the next few nights. -10

LONG TERM
Wednesday to Saturday...By mid-week, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement with upper-level ridging remaining slightly offshore of the U.S. West Coast. This will maintain mostly dry and warm conditions on Wednesday, however, we could see some increasing cloud cover as a system rides the northern periphery of the ridge and heads into British Columbia.
Given that this system will track further north, precipitation is not expected for the majority of our area except for a 15% chance for light showers along the south Washington coast. Will also note that increased cloud cover will also warm our low temperatures slightly and reduce the threat for frost development.

Thursday to Friday, the aforementioned upper-level ridge will shift eastward and move over the Pacific Northwest. This will result in temperatures rebounding to the low to mid 70s across interior valleys at the end of the week. Heading into the weekend, the upper ridge gets pushed further east by upper-level troughing coming down from the Gulf of Alaska. There remains uncertainty with the timing, position, and magnitude of the troughing at this point, but what we can say with higher confidence is that this pattern would return cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation by the weekend. -10

AVIATION
Through 12Z Monday...Satellite imagery and terminal observations as of early Sunday morning depicts patchy areas of LIFR/IFR CIGs and VIS across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Will maintain these trends of fog/low stratus potential along the north Oregon coast and Willamette Valley through 17-18z Sun. TEMPOs were added into some of the TAFs through at least 15z Sun as observations have been fluctuating between VFR and IFR/LIFR conditions. For locations that don't have fog or stratus, temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees may result in frost formation over metal surfaces. After 18z Sun, high pressure will favor a return of VFR conditions with mostly sunny skies.
North/northeasterly winds today, strongest along the coast and central/southern Willamette Valley at 10-13 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Elsewhere, winds remain around 4-7 kt.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR CIGs through 16-17z Sun. After 17-18z Sun, increased mixing will dissipate stratus and return VFR conditions with sunny skies. Northwesterly winds 4-7 kt today. -10

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least early Monday morning for all waters including the Columbia River Bar for steep and choppy seas of 6-9 ft at 7-9 seconds.
Thermal troughing will set-up along the coast today, resulting in northeasterly winds. These winds are expected to remain light today, as chances for widespread and frequent wind gusts exceeding 21 kt are around 5% or less.

Benign marine conditions expected for the rest of the week. Winds gradually weaken on Monday and remain northerly through early Tuesday morning. Tuesday to Wednesday, winds turn more southwesterly ahead of an approaching weak front, but return northerly by the end of the week. Seas subside to 4-6 ft with winds remaining below 15 kt. -10

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ104-106-113- 117-118-121-123>125.

WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for WAZ205-208.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273.