Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Naselle, WA

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday)...Water vapor satellite imagery this evening shows shortwave ridge of high pressure traversing eastward across the region while an upper level trough drops out of the Gulf of Alaska. This upper level trough will continue to dig southeastward tonight toward the Washington and Oregon coast. Wind gusts have peaked this evening in the west Gorge and east Portland metro, where gusts up to 25-35 mph have been observed. Expect the easterly winds to ease through the rest of the evening as pressure gradients ease. With relative humidities rising above 25% and winds expected to weaken, the previous Red Flag Warnings for fire weather zones 636, 686, 688, and 689 have been allowed to expire as of 8 PM PDT.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level shortwave trough will move across the area on Friday. Latest hi- resolution guidance shows rain pushing onto the coast between 4-6 AM Friday morning and quickly spreading inland through the morning and early afternoon. The front will likely push east of the Cascades by 5 PM Friday, if not sooner, but may see some lingering showers through the evening hours as rain transitions to showers around midday. Rainfall amounts will vary quite a bit, thanks to faster movement of the front. Generally, think will see 0.15 to 1.00 inch along the coast and into the coastal mtns, with 0.10 to 0.50 inch for the interior valleys, and 0.10 to 1.00 inch for the Cascades (lowest south of Santiam Pass). Snow levels will tumble behind the front, from above 10K ft to around 6K ft Friday afternoon. As such, a couple of inches of snow could fall for areas above 6000 ft in the Cascades.

High pressure rebuilds on Saturday, bringing dry weather and mild temperatures. Overall, 60s along the coast and upper 60s to lower 70s for the interior lowlands. -Alviz/DH

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)...High pressure is expected to build back over the region this weekend and into early next week, resulting in seasonable and dry conditions through at least Monday.
Cluster analysis and model ensembles indicate there is around a 40% chance that the next frontal system brings rain back to the area by Wednesday, while the drier solutions maintain seasonable highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Uncertainty in the details of the forecast continues through late next week, but overall upper level pattern remains fairly consistent with troughing to the west over the Pacific and ridging to the east over the Rockies, leaving the Pacific NW under southwest flow. /DH

AVIATION
Prevailing mostly clear skies and VFR conditions through 12Z Friday with calm winds. A cold front will approach the area after 12Z Friday, shifting winds to the south/southwest and increasing to around 8-10 kts. Rain will also accompany the front with precipitation reaching the southern Washington/northern Oregon coast around 12Z and into the Willamette Valley and central Oregon coast around 15-17Z. MVFR ceilings are expected along the coast after 12Z ahead and along the front. Inland, expect periods of MVFR after 15Z, especially behind the front from around 18-23Z.
Conditions will lift to VFR after 00Z Saturday.

PDX APPROACHES...VFR conditions through 15Z. A cold front approaching the area tonight will shift winds to the south along with bringing rain chances starting after 15Z. MVFR conditions possible with heavier rain showers, then behind the front from 18- 23Z. -HEC

MARINE
Northerly flow has relaxed to around 10-15 kts with gusts under 20 kts. Wind waves and swell combined to produce wave heights between 8-10 feet at 11-13 seconds. A low pressure system is slated to pass north of the region tonight and into Friday with a frontal boundary moving over the waters during the early morning hours. Winds turn south- southwesterly after midnight tonight as the front approaches before turning back westerly late Friday morning behind the front. This system is likely accompanied by fairly fresh swell which will push combined seas across the Small Craft Advisory threshold for the outer waters north of Cape Falcon Friday morning through the evening; seas 7-10 ft at 10 seconds. Confidence is much lower in similar conditions elsewhere across our coastal waters with the best chance for rougher waters further north off the coast of Washington.

Ridging builds into the region Saturday into Sunday leading to a return of northerly winds across the waters. We'll have to watch another potential trough of low pressure in the late Monday through Tuesday timeframe although confidence in the exact timing and impacts are low at this time. -Batz/Schuldt

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to midnight PDT Friday night for PZZ271.