Chatham, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chatham, MI

May 27, 2024 8:45 AM EDT (12:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 9:32 PM
Moonrise 12:10 AM   Moonset 8:16 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LSZ249 /o.con.kmqt.ma.w.0014.000000t0000z-240522t0500z/ 1249 Am Edt Wed May 22 2024

.a special marine warning remains in effect until 100 am edt - .
for the following areas - . Grand marais to whitefish point mi - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Lake superior from grand marais mi to whitefish point mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border - . Marquette to munising mi - . Munising to grand marais mi - .
at 1249 am edt, strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm north of stannard rock to 17 nm southeast of miners castle, moving northeast at 55 knots.
hazard - .wind gusts 34 knots or greater.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
locations impacted include - . Miners castle, grand sable dunes, pictured rocks national lakeshore, stannard rock, and grand island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.
report severe weather to the coast guard or the national weather service.
&&
lat - .lon 4663 8580 4663 8615 4653 8642 4637 8665 4729 8732 4764 8670 time - .mot - .loc 0449z 224deg 53kt 4729 8721 4627 8629
hail - .0.00in wind - .>34kts

LSZ200
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chatham, MI
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Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 271029 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 629 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures for the first half of the week, followed by a drying trend midweek. Areas of frost expected Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 234 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in eastern Manitoba with a shortwave over the upper Great Lakes with another shortwave over the northern plains. The northern plains shortwave heads east and helps the trough amplify over the Great Lakes region 00z Tue. 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper moisture remain over the eastern half of the cwa today while the west is drier. This will continue to be where the highest pops will be while the west remains mostly dry. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Recent deterministic and ensemble guidance packages are continuing to handle the up coming pattern consistently for Upper Michigan. The long term pattern for Upper Michigan will start off with broad mid- level troughing overhead as today's surface low pulls away through Ontario into Quebec. Within this flow, a shortwave will press east through MN/WI into this evening followed by a weakening closed low pressing through the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday. Afterwards, ridging builds into the region for the latter half of the week followed by a cold front for the weekend.

In terms of sensible weather, weak ridging will sit atop the shortwave moving south of the region today, supporting a dry evening across the west. After midnight though, the leading edge of the next shortwave moves in, potentially supporting showers in the west by early Tuesday morning. Rain showers in the east should continue their slow diminishing trend as the surface low to the northeast pulls away to night into Tuesday. A cooler airmass will build into the region tonight and Tuesday alongside the closed mid-level low.
While the better synoptic forcing appears to be south and west, increasing instability through the day coupled with the possible morning shortwave, could support increasing coverage of showers through the day in the west, possibly a thunderstorm as well.

Ridging and an increasingly dry airmass will build into the region late Tuesday night and then persist through at least Friday. This, alongside the cooler airmass will continue Tuesday's daytime highs of 50s and 60s into Wednesday. Frost may be a concern for portions of the interior west Tuesday night and will be for most interior locations Wednesday night. Confidence is high (>75%) for patchy to areas of frost Wednesday night. While our internal model certainty tool and NBM probabilities suggest a 50% chance of falling below 35F for interior portions of Upper Michigan, both EC and GEFS ensemble suggest PWATS of 20-30% of normal. Given this, subsidence overhead, and the weak winds, I suspect a freeze may even be on the table. At this point, a Frost Advisory seems likely (>75% chance) Wednesday night but will continue to monitor model trends. While frost is also possible Tuesday night, the timing of the drier air and potential for continued winds above 5 mph suggest radiating out may be more difficult.

Guidance also continues to suggest the dry and well-mixed boundary layer will support plummeting dewpoints and RH falling below 30% away from the lakeshores Wednesday and Thursday. A mitigating factor for the fire weather risk, in addition to fairly light winds, will be the widespread rain in the preceding days. Ridge axis builds into the region Thursday night while another trough presses out of the Rockies. Guidance consensus continues to suggest the surface high and dry conditions will win out through at least Friday night, with increasing rain chances Saturday with the passage of a cold front.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 628 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Low pressure over Lake Michigan will track east today, bringing shra to the east half of Upper MI. At IWD, VFR will prevail thru this fcst period, but there will be some VLIFR fog coming off Lake Superior early this morning. At CMX, either lower clouds wrapping back to the terminal or upsloping of fog/stratus over the lake should result in MVFR cigs developing this morning briefly. VFR will return later this afternoon. SAW will be on the nw edge of the pcpn shield. That should lead to IFR cigs setting in this morning under upslope nne winds of around 15kt. These low clouds are likely to persist until this evening when VFR should return.

MARINE
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

A surface low will track northeast across Lake Michigan and northern Lower Michigan today. As the low transits, expect primarily northeast winds to become northerly this morning, and then northwesterly by evening. Winds are mostly expected to be 20 to 30 knots across the east half while the west remains below 20 knots.
Wave heights of 4 to 7 feet should be expected across the east half.
The low will pull away tonight with these elevated northwest winds continuing into Tuesday night across the east. High pressure builds across the lake on Wednesday supporting light and variable winds and decreasing waves until Thursday midday, when light easterly to southeasterly flow at 5-15 kt re-establishes itself across the western lake, along with waves 1-3 ft.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
KP53 10 mi50 min NE 13G22 49°F 29.6148°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 30 mi46 min ENE 4.1G7 47°F 29.6144°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 49 mi126 min NE 23G27 49°F 29.63


Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KP0 sm49 minNE 13G22--48°F48°F100%29.60
Link to 5 minute data for KP53


Wind History from P53
(wind in knots)
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Marquette, MI,




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