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LSZ322 Expires:202310021000;;359838 Fzus73 Kapx 020903 Mwsapx
marine weather statement national weather service gaylord mi 503 am edt Mon oct 2 2023
lsz321-322-021000- 503 am edt Mon oct 2 2023
.the st marys river system has been reopened to vessel navigation...
the united states coast guard in sault ste marie has reopened the st marys river system to navigation. The dense fog which affected the river system earlier in the day has now dissipated...allowing for safe navigation once again.
lat...lon 4653 8413 4619 8408 4606 8395 4612 8382 4612 8363 4599 8344 4593 8354 4601 8409 4602 8406 4614 8416 4613 8425 4619 8434 4631 8427 4645 8435 4640 8458 4644 8496 4652 8463 4645 8448 4651 8438 4649 8427

LSZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 280454 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1154 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 957 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Eastern upper MI...lake effect bands have recently reintensified into the Sault. Even our radar is seeing the tops of some of the convection up there (especially near CYAM/Sault Canada airport).
Sharp convergence is also noted, between west winds over the bulk of eastern upper MI, and nw/nnw winds at the Saults. Slowly veering winds, and any tendency for surface cold/dry air to intrude from north of the Sault, will push bands westward with time. Expect the heaviest snow tonight further west, perhaps from Bay Mills to Rudyard, with 3-6" possible.

Northern lower...nw flow lake effect banding has been reorganizing late this evening, now impacting a broader portion of the area (as expected). Antrim and Kalkaska Cos look to see the worst of it, with an additional 2-4" there. Slightly less elsewhere.

UPDATE Issued at 705 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Dominant band of lake effect snow has been slowly shifting southward across Antrim/Otsego Cos since late afternoon. Gave serious consideration to upgrading those 2 counties to warnings, but the gradual southward movement has kept snow accums within reason (even with snowfall rates more than 1" per hour). Winds will only very slowly veer thru the rest of the night, but that should continue to produce a southward drift. CAMs seem to favor this band becoming a bit less organized as we hit late evening; perhaps due our airmass gradually trending dryer. If this band were to stall, an upgrade to a winter storm warning could still be needed for a few counties.

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating lake effect snows to continue into Tuesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Deep troughing pivoting across the area early this afternoon, with attendant cold advection spreading across the Northwoods. One look at radar says it all, with a classic lake response within this cold core trough, with numerous snow showers rotating off the big waters.
Flow regime has been a relatively steady-state west to west/northwest...targeting the most persistent snows into our traditional lake belt locations. Snow shower intensity has been held a bit in check (especially across Lake Michigan) via a thinning of the synoptic moisture contribution through a still healthy convective cloud depth layer. Still seeing transit pockets of inch per hour snowfall rates, resulting in snow-covered roads and areas of greatly reduced visibilities. Gusty winds resulting in areas of blowing and drifting snow, only exacerbating the hazardous driving conditions.

Lake parameters only expected to ramp up this evening with passing wave and attendant surge of deeper synoptic moisture. Winds will steadily back, "fanning" what should be rather robust lake snows across the snowbelt locations tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Snow shower evolution, amounts, and attendant headline considerations.

Details:

All parameters set for an excellent lake response heading into this evening...with deep convective cloud depths (up and over 700mb level), deep lift through the dendritic growth zone, and increasing synoptic moisture contribution. Really, the only thing that will hinder overall accumulations will be a steadily veering convective boundary layer wind field...with those winds becoming decidedly more northwest through the overnight. This should theoretically limit duration of what should be intense lake bands at any one particular location. Still, above parameters and simple pattern recognition easily supports pockets of well over an inch per hour snowfall rates.
Increasing Lake Superior connection will only help the snow- producing cause across northwest lower Michigan. Could easily see another 3 to 5 inches in our classic lake effect areas...with higher (potentially significantly so) amounts if winds do lock in more steady-state than currently anticipated. Still somewhat gusty winds will continue to produce areas of blowing and drifting snow, and when combined with those heavier snowfall rates, will produce areas of near whiteout conditions at times. Just some scattered lighter snow showers and flurries away from the lake effect prone areas.

As for headlines: Will simply extend/reconfigure many of our current winter weather advisories through Tuesday morning. No doubt some areas will see warning snow amounts before this is all done, but just not seeing enough areal coverage of those heavier totals to justify an upgrade to a warning.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Additional Accumulating Snow

High Impact Weather Potential...Additional accumulating lake effect snow into Tuesday, especially across the snowbelts of eastern upper and northwest lower. Additional accumulating lake enhanced snow overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Pops and snow accumulations.

Continued deep cyclonic flow, excellent over lake instability and plentiful moisture are expected to continue to target the snowbelts of eastern upper and northwest lower with additional lake effect snow into Tuesday morning. Northwest winds early in the day look like they will try to veer slightly into the west northwest direction once again. Additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible in the snowbelts.
Increasing ridging at the surface and aloft in combination with waning moisture should slowly diminish activity Tuesday afternoon with only a few light snow showers or flurries expected into the evening. An Alberta Clipper system dropping southeast will increase moisture overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This should restart the lake effect machine and it should be enhanced by the wave (although over lake instability will not be nearly as robust as we have had recently) with the flow primarily out of the southwest.
Could see anywhere between a couple and a few inches of snow accumulation in favored areas downwind of Lake Michigan. Highs moderating from the mid 20s to around 30 Tuesday into the mid and upper 30s Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night in the mid teens to low 20s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Turning Milder and Less Active

It's still looking like a less active weather pattern overall as northern Michigan is expected to located in between active jet streams to our north and south. This will likely lead to a nearly zonal flow aloft Thursday on into at least the first half of the weekend. This setup should result in milder temperatures as well as a break in the action (except for perhaps lingering lake effect snow showers across northern Chippewa county in eastern upper). Low pressure approaching from the southwest Sunday will increase chances for precipitation. This could come in the form of rain, snow or a combination of the two.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Highly variable conditions in lake effect snow into early Tuesday, then improving.

Lake effect snow showers continue into Tuesday morning, before we see a bit of a lull in the afternoon and evening. Conditions will remain highly variable, potentially ranging from VFR to LIFR. As our winds veer somewhat tonight, the most likely sites to see significant restrictions at times will be CIU and TVC. By mid afternoon, cigs will drift toward into VFR territory.

Gusty wnw winds become nw and nnw on Tuesday.

MARINE
Issued at 259 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Gusty winds will continue to produce widespread small craft advisory conditions through Tuesday. More gusty winds at times expected through the rest of the week.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016-017- 086>088-095-096.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for MIZ020>022- 025>028-031-032-099.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

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