Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Park, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 4:28PM Sunday December 15, 2019 5:01 AM PST (13:01 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 11:00AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 302 Am Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am pst this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
In the main channel.. - general seas...6 to 8 ft through Monday. - first ebb...around 645 am Sunday. Seas near 11 ft. - second ebb...strong ebb around 645 pm Sunday. Seas 11 to 13 ft with breakers likely. - third ebb...around 730 am Monday. Seas to 8 ft.
PZZ200 302 Am Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak low pressure located roughly 100 nm west of newport will slowly dissipate while approaching coos bay early Sun. A weak warm front will lift north across the waters Sunday night and early Mon. Offshore flow will develop early next week before a series of fronts bring increasing winds and seas during the latter half of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Park, WA
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location: 46.5, -124.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 151146 CCA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 303 AM PST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Fairly benign weather the next couple of days will likely give way to a multi-day stretch of notably wet weather mid to late week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday . Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning reveals a shortwave ridge offshore shifting eastward towards the Pacific Northwest. This has resulted in the atmosphere stabilizing overnight. Light winds and lingering moisture near the surface have allowed plenty of low clouds and some patchy fog to develop across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington early this morning. Given the weak pressure gradients expected across the area today, low clouds and fog should be slow to clear and many locations in the Willamette and lower Columbia River valleys appear unlikely to clear. As a result, have lowered high temperatures for inland valley locations a couple of degrees for today.

Models are in good agreement a warm front will shift eastward towards the region tonight. While operational models have come into better agreement that it will fall apart enough that the area will remain dry, there are enough ensemble members that bring at least some light rain to our western zones that have maintained slight chance to low chance PoPs for later tonight and early Monday. Shortwave ridging will then shift more squarely over the region late Monday into Monday night so expect more areas of fog and low clouds to develop. The main exception to this will be across the northern half of the Willamette Valley where increasing east winds near the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge will likely prevent widespread fog and low clouds from developing.

Models are in good agreement the next shortwave trough approaching the region will split and weaken, as most storms seemingly have the last several weeks, considerably as it hits the Pacific Northwest later Tuesday. As a result, have kept PoPs in the slight chance to chance categories for Tuesday into Tuesday night. With that said, this storm system will likely be the sacrificial lamb and open the door for strong zonal flow to spread across the region Wednesday. Models are in good agreement this will be in response to a broad shortwave trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more solid shot of rain Wednesday as a cold front pushes eastward across the area. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . Models and their ensembles are in general agreement a broad shortwave trough will move into the Gulf of Alaska midweek before digging southeastward towards the West Coast of the US next weekend. Concurrently, a shortwave ridge will build northward into the Rocky Mountain states. As this occurs, a strong zonal jet will take aim at the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into early Thursday. There have been a few model runs over the past couple of days that result in a surface low pressure developing and moving northeastward towards the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into early Thursday, but most model solutions keep the low pressure either very weak or nonexistent. Nonetheless, the pattern seems conducive for a surface low pressure to develop and move close enough to the region to at least bring a threat of high winds to the coast. Even though the latest operational model runs show few signs of this occurring this will be worth monitoring.

Meanwhile, models are in better agreement that at least a moderate strength atmospheric river will end up impacting the West Coast of the US Thursday into Friday night. Given the digging nature of the offshore trough, the atmospheric river could stall or at least waver back and forth between northern California, Oregon and Washington during this timeframe. While the operational GFS, and particularly the EC are somewhat ominous and would likely result in at least some flooding issues in our CWA late in the week, the GEFS and EPS suggest there is a lot of uncertainty in how long the steadier rain will reside over our CWA mid to late week . at least a lot more so than just looking at the operational GFS and EC. Will wait for more of a consensus among the models and their ensembles before issuing any products highlighting potential impacts.

It should be noted there may be some winter precipitation type issues in the Gorge when the initial warm front spreads into the region late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but given the marginally cold temperatures east of the Cascades currently, confidence in significant issues arising is low at this point. This pattern does seem conducive for heavier snow to fall across the higher terrain between Mt Hood and Mt Adams initially Wednesday night into early Thursday regardless. Nonetheless, temperatures should moderate enough late Thursday and Friday that snow levels will likely climb above the Cascade passes during any heavier bouts of precipitation late Thursday and Friday.

Expect precipitation to turn more showery and snow levels to lower below the Cascade passes next weekend as the main upper level trough spreads eastward over the area. Given the digging nature of the shortwave trough as it hits the West Coast of the US and the bulk of the energy appears likely to remain south of the region, low level westerly flow should not be terribly strong across our CWA. This will likely limit snow totals across our Cascades next weekend despite the colder temperatures and modest instability spreading across the area. /Neuman

AVIATION. Primarily a mixture of MVFR and IFR cigs have settled in over the area, and are expected to keep any fog from developing along the coast and within the Willamette Valley through the morning. There could be some patchy LIFR cigs that develop along the coast, but if they develop would expect them to dissipate by 19Z Sunday. There are a few areas within the Willamette Valley that currently have a SCT cloud deck that might allow for some patchy fog development, but overall areas should maintain VFR or MVFR visibilities. Look for a slow improvement towards VFR conditions starting around 19Z Sunday for all locations. Expect increasing precip chances starting after 00Z Monday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . IFR cigs have developed over the area, and are expected to persist through 19Z Sunday as the cigs slowly lift towards VFR. /42

MARINE. Winds and seas will slowly build through the evening as a front moves NE across our waters. This frontal passage will bring Small Craft Advisory winds and seas to our outer waters through Sunday night through at least Monday afternoon. A stronger system is then expected to move into our waters by late Monday evening with Small Craft Advisory winds and seas, that could develop into marginal Gales for the outer waters. However, models are all over the place when looking at strength and placement of this Tue/Wed system. Expect primarily southerly winds to dominate through the middle of the week, along with a primary westerly swell, and secondary weaker wind driven southerly swell. All of these factors will keep seas around 9 to 10 feet for the early part of this week, and could push seas up to 14 to 16 feet by Wednesday. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 15 mi50 min E 1.9 G 2.9 38°F 48°F1019.8 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 20 mi32 min 48°F7 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 24 mi50 min Calm G 4.1 39°F 46°F1019.3 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 27 mi32 min 47°F7 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 28 mi86 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 40°F 48°F1018.9 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 35 mi72 min N 3.9 G 5.8 46°F 49°F9 ft1019.4 hPa (+1.2)39°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 42 mi32 min 50°F8 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR25 mi67 minE 310.00 miFair34°F33°F97%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3E3S3CalmE3CalmE3NE4--E5E5CalmS3CalmSE3CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmSE3E3
1 day agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E5CalmN4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE3SE3E3N4CalmSE3CalmSE3E3
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Tide / Current Tables for Nahcotta, Willipa Bay, Washington
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Nahcotta
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:50 AM PST     9.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:23 AM PST     3.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:59 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:58 PM PST     11.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:21 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:01 PM PST     -1.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.65.97.89.19.48.77.35.84.43.63.85.37.69.510.711.110.596.53.81.3-0.5-1.3-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Naselle River, swing bridge, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Naselle River
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:20 AM PST     10.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:39 AM PST     4.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:59 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:20 PM PST     11.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:21 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:19 PM PST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.35.77.89.410.310.197.35.74.64.45.781011.311.911.810.68.45.62.90.6-0.6-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.