Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Park, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:13PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 2:00 PM PDT (21:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:29PMMoonset 3:08AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 257 Am Pdt Wed Apr 21 2021
In the main channel.. - general seas...around 6 feet through Thursday. - first ebb...around 1245 pm Wednesday. Seas to 7 feet. - second ebb...around 145 am Thursday. Seas to 7 feet. - third ebb...around 145 pm Thursday. Seas to 7 feet.
PZZ200 257 Am Pdt Wed Apr 21 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure over the coastal waters will continue through much of the week. A thermal low will persist from northern california and extend into oregon which will strengthen northerly winds through Wednesday night. Low pressure returns this weekend to bring increasing southerly winds.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Park, WA
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location: 46.5, -124.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 211648 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 948 AM PDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Updated Aviation section

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday, with daytime temperatures continuing well above normal. Increasing onshore flow Thursday will bring cooler temperatures that are close to seasonable normals. Slightly warmer Friday before cool and wet conditions arrive for the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Friday night . Satellite imagery early this morning showed a widespread area of marine stratus across the coastal waters and along the coast. This marine stratus deck had already begun pushing into the Coast Range gaps, but the pressure gradient should remain too weak for the stratus to make it into the Willamette Valley this morning. If anything, expecting marine stratus to push back out to sea and hug the coastline during the late morning hours. With high pressure continuing over the region today, expect another sunny day with above normal temperatures continuing. The latest suite of model guidance suggests 850 mb temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, with forecast NAM/GFS BUFR soundings at various points across the Willamette Valley showing a well-mixed boundary layer up to 850-800 mb with north to northwest winds around 10 kt. The NBM was used for forecast high temperatures today, which seems to be very reasonable with highs in the mid to upper 70s over the interior lowlands. Onshore flow will keep the coast much cooler with highs in the 50s, and will also keep the Coast Range a bit cooler as well with highs in the 60s. Despite the onshore flow, expect another day with low relative humidity values for inland locations, most likely falling into the 25-30% range for most locations this afternoon before rising quickly in the evening. Not quite as dry as yesterday, but still notably dry.

Onshore flow should strengthen Wednesday night into Thursday, which will help push marine stratus farther inland and at least provide a portion of the lowlands with morning low clouds before skies become mostly sunny during the afternoon. This will bring noticeably cooler temperatures on Thursday with highs in the 50s along the coast and for much of the Coast Range and in the 60s across the Willamette Valley. It will also become a bit breezy late in the day. Relative humidity values will be higher on Thursday, most likely above 40% through the day.

The 00Z iteration of the HREF/GFS/EURO show northerly flow aloft becoming northwesterly Thursday night and eventually westerly by Friday afternoon. At the surface, onshore flow looks to continue. An incoming upper level trough begins to approach the region late Friday, with light rain arriving to the coast most likely by late evening and spreading inland Friday night. Much-needed rain looks to continue into the weekend. Please see the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM. Saturday through Wednesday . The weather pattern should finally turn cooler and wetter this weekend with highs in the 50s, most likely continuing into early next week. On Saturday, models and their ensembles are in good agreement that 500 mb flow will be out of the southwest, ahead of an upper low centered over the northeast Pacific. At the surface, a frontal system will be moving through the region. Expect widespread rain with this frontal system on Saturday. QG forcing with this system favors mainly light rain, however moderate rain is possible at times to the north of Eugene where forcing is strongest, especially during frontal passages. Moderate rain will also be possible over higher terrain, especially southwest-facing slopes. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding exact rainfall amounts, which is highlighted well by the differences shown between the deterministic GFS/EURO/Canadian, with the EURO and Canadian producing more QPF than the GFS for most locations. The GEFS ensemble plumes for QPF and Portland show rainfall values ranging anywhere from 0.21 to 1.12 inches for Friday night through Saturday evening. For Salem, the spread ranges from 0.15 to 1.01 inches. For Eugene, 0.03 to 0.71 inches. That said, ensemble members show noticeable clustering between 0.20 and 0.40 inches. WPC QPF falls within this range and was used for official QPF amounts. Snow levels look to be fairly high Saturday morning between 4500-5500 feet. Snow levels should lower slightly late in the day, but not by much. This system should bring an inch or two of wet snow to the passes.

Precipitation should become showery Saturday night in the post-frontal environment. On Sunday, flow aloft looks to become more southerly as the center of the upper low pushes inland. The deterministic GFS/EURO both show a closed low at the surface that pushes inland during the late afternoon. Forecast GFS soundings show a deepening moisture profile on Sunday with mid-level lapse rates steepening just enough to produce a long and skinny CAPE profile. Although the instability does not look great, cannot rule out a slight chance of weak thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, especially given the deeper moisture profile and equilibrium levels up to around 500 mb where temperatures will be near -30 degrees Celsius and supportive of mixed-phase clouds. This also means that any stronger showers or storms that may form on Sunday will have the potential to produce small hail.

Showers should become isolated Sunday night and continue on Monday with coverage picking up somewhat Monday afternoon. Uncertainty then increases significantly for Tuesday and Wednesday as models begin to disagree with the timing and strength of the next potential system. The deterministic GFS suggests widespread moderate rain over the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, while the EURO keeps the area completely dry and holds off bringing in the weather system until Wednesday. Some of the GEFS members for QPF are close to zero on Tuesday, hinting at the possibility that the EURO may be onto something with the later timing. -TK

AVIATION. VFR conditions continue inland Wednesday as high pressure aloft with dry northerly flow persist. IFR marine stratus pushed into the coastal valleys this morning may retreat close to the coastline by mid-day, with a few breaks possible near KAST and KONP. Surface high pressure will remain offshore while low level flow turns more onshore tonight through Thu morning. Expect a stronger push of marine stratus overnight with a deepening marine layer. Will likely see low stratus surge into the southern Willamette Valley, arriving at KEUG around 10-12Z Thu, and also up the Columbia reaching KPDX around 12-14Z Thu. Cigs associated with these clouds will likely be in the 010 to 012 range. The stratus may continue to spread further inland through Thu morning lingering through 18z.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR conditions and light northwest winds persist through Wednesday before potential for marine push of MVFR stratus early Thu morning. Most likely timing of 012 CIGS arrival around 12-14Z Thu, possibly lingering through 18Z. /DDH

MARINE. No significant changes from previous forecast packages. Surface high pressure continues to bring breezy north winds and choppy 7-9 ft seas through tonight. As such, the Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through tonight as planned.

High pressure weakens Thursday and Friday, although, low pressure will develop over the offshore waters. There is a fair amount of uncertainty with regards to the strength and location of this system. The low possibly gets close enough to shore to bring a cold front across the coastal waters Saturday with many model solutions holding off until Sunday. The strongest solutions being low end Gales through most models are indicating solid wind gusts 25-30 kt. Seas will remain less than 10 feet through remain rather choppy with a strong wind wave influence. /JBonk

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 NM-coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 10 NM.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR25 mi65 minWSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds57°F49°F74%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

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Last 24hrNW14NW12NW15NW16NW11W11W7W5SW5W5NW7W4SW4CalmW5NW5CalmNE3CalmN3E5Calm3W10
1 day agoN5W10W10W8W5W7W5NW5CalmCalmSW4SW4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmN4E53N5N7N7NW11
2 days agoSW12W11SW8SW8W8SW8SW6SW4W7SW6SW5S5S5SE4S5SE6SE5SE5SE7SE5E65W5N5

Tide / Current Tables for Nahcotta, Willipa Bay, Washington
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Nahcotta
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Wed -- 03:14 AM PDT     4.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:07 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:43 AM PDT     8.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:47 PM PDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:44 PM PDT     8.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.96.15.24.64.967.288.48.58.17.25.84.32.81.61.22.13.65.16.47.68.38.5

Tide / Current Tables for Naselle River, swing bridge, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Naselle River
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:16 AM PDT     4.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:06 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM PDT     8.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:01 PM PDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:48 PM PDT     8.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.65.95.34.8567.17.98.58.78.47.35.84.22.81.61.11.634.45.87.28.28.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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