Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Hills, MT

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Hills, MT

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Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 281959 AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 159 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon today. Expect a few additional showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day, but most of the area will remain dry for the holiday.

DISCUSSION

The final piece of a broad upper level trough that has been stuck over the NW CONUS for the last week or so will finally move through the area over the next two days. This is resulting in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area, particularly south of a line from Great Falls to Lewistown. These showers and storms will continue to slowly push eastward through the day, and could bring up to a quarter inch or so of additional rainfall through around 7 this evening, with showers and storms dying out shortly thereafter.

As the base of the upper level trough pushes to our east on Tuesday, our upper level flow will turn more westerly, allowing for a bit of a reprieve, save for a few isolated showers that are able to pop up during the afternoon heating. Wednesday will be similar as westerly flow aloft continues, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Southwestern Mountains. -Ludwig

Thursday into the weekend... Ensemble and cluster guidance are in pretty good agreement through the work week, with a ridge of high pressure developing across the midsection of CONUS/Canada with a trough developing across the western CONUS. Resulting flow aloft in this pattern is south to southwesterly, which points towards more rounds of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Friday. Deterministic guidance suggests better moisture will sneak into the region Thursday into Friday from the east. 48-hour probabilities for 1 inch of rain from Thursday morning through Saturday morning are generally in the 20-40% range for North-central Montana, and 10% or less across Southwest Montana.

Uncertainty develops in the pattern heading into next weekend, but most solutions favor some component of southerly flow aloft, which would continue chances for showers and thunderstorms. -AM

AVIATION
1125 AM MDT Sun May 28 2023 (28/18Z TAF Period)

Predominately VFR conditions prevail across North-central and Southwest Montana, with the exception of some MVFR conditions in lowered cloud ceilings. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, peaking between 28/19z and 29/00z across portions of Central Montana briefly reducing visibility and cloud ceilings to MVFR conditions. Instances of lighting and small hail as well as some mountain obscuration will be expected during this time. Shower and thunderstorm activity decreases quickly thereafter, exiting the region from northwest to southeast. - Pierce

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 75 49 78 / 20 20 10 10 CTB 50 76 47 79 / 20 20 0 0 HLN 51 78 52 81 / 20 30 10 20 BZN 44 74 46 77 / 50 30 20 50 WYS 36 64 34 68 / 50 60 40 70 DLN 43 72 45 74 / 40 20 20 50 HVR 52 80 52 81 / 10 20 10 0 LWT 47 72 49 74 / 50 30 10 30

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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