Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 4:34 PM   Moonset 4:48 AM

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LSZ248 /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-231006t0000z/ 719 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Huron islands to marquette mi - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Marquette to munising mi - .
the Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4677 8728 4691 8674 4647 8712 4645 8727 time - .mot - .loc 2318z 252deg 17kt 4685 8696 4666 8713

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 201035 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 635 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday, mainly in the west and central.
- Showers return Monday night into Tuesday.
- Temperatures warming through Monday, then cooler Tuesday/Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low in James Bay with a trough across the upper Great Lakes and northern plains. This upper trough remains through 00z Sun. Deeper moisture moves out today, so flurries and light snow showers will come to an end.
Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

To start the long term period, the 500 mb pattern will feature anomalous ridging over western Canada and anomalous troughing centered over Hudson Bay and encompassing the remainder of eastern Canada. Some of this troughing will extend into the upper Great Lakes, although with lower amplitude as the flow pattern trends more zonal with southward extent. The height gradient tightens through the day Sunday as ridging shifts east somewhat and a vort max along the southern periphery of the Hudson Bay low tracks from southern Ontario into southern Quebec. Although the forcing for ascent with this feature will remain displaced northeast of the forecast area, it will push the tail end of a cold front across the eastern lake into the eastern UP through the day. This will allow surface winds to assume a northerly component, keeping much of the north-central and eastern UP on the cool side, especially along the Superior shoreline, with highs only in the mid to upper 40s. Deep mixing is forecast throughout the UP with forecast soundings suggesting mixing up to around 800 mb. This will result in a blustery day, with wind gusts around 25 mph. Due to the mixing and dry air aloft, relative humidity is likely to be lower than NBM guidance, especially across the interior west where temps will likely reach the low to mid-50s and dewpoints falling to near 20, yielding min RHs in the 25-30 percent range. Combined with the winds and a few days of drying, this setup will yield elevated fire weather concerns (although with temperatures still a bit on the cool side). The cooler temperatures over the north-central and east should limit fire weather concerns there.

Ridging briefly builds over the area Sunday night, resulting in good radiational cooling conditions and lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s. This ridge will quickly give way to return flow in advance of an approaching shortwave. The warm advection should give temps a nice boost with highs mainly in the upper 50s/low 60s, although cooler along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Models once again depict deep mixing, so we increased wind gusts and decreased dewpoints relative to NBM once again. This could be another day with elevated fire weather conditions with RH values 25-30 percent and wind gusts 20-25 mph over the central and west.

Surface low associated with the aforementioned shortwave will move out of the southern Canadian prairies Monday and to the vicinity of Lake Superior Monday night, although there is still uncertainty with the exact low track. A band of showers is expected (80% chance)
Monday night as the low level jet strengthens ahead of this feature.
Strong cold advection ensues on Tuesday as the low moves off to the east. There is considerable uncertainty on temperatures in the Monday night/Tuesday timeframe owing to differences in timing and track of the low. There could be a non-diurnal trend to the temps if the cold advection is on the early side Tuesday with temps falling from north to south through the day. Another band of showers is likely along the cold front, and if the cold air slides in soon enough, it could mix with or turn to snow (although impactful accumulations appear unlikely at this time). High pressure building in from the northwest should shut off precip rather quickly Tuesday night. A dry stretch is favored Wed/Thu beneath this high, while a warming trend to above normal is expected for the end of the week into next weekend on the back side of the high. Rain chances enter the picture as well Fri into the weekend, but confidence is low on timing, so broad-brush chance (30-50 percent) exists for now.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 634 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Brief MVFR this morning will give way to VFR this afternoon at all sites. Some light snow showers look to continue through the area the rest of this morning. Will continue to be gusty at CMX this forecast period and at IWD into early afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

West to northwest winds of 20-30 kt continue today into tonight, strongest east half, although they will decrease for a bit to 20 kt or less west half early tonight. More stable air building over the west half will allow winds to decrease to less than 20 kt Sunday afternoon, while instability remains over the east half with 20-30 kt northwest winds continuing. The next period of interest is Monday night as southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching low. Although stability is expected to keep these winds to 25 kt or less, a strong pressure gradient on the back side of the low brings potential for gales especially over central/western portions of the lake late Monday night into early Tuesday (around 50 percent). The potential for brief gales has been growing, but there is still uncertainty with the low track.
Winds will become northerly Tuesday with widespread 25-30 kt winds as colder, unstable air overspreads the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ240.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ241-248-249.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ242>244.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ250-251.

Lake Michigan...
None.

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