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LSZ248 320 Pm Edt Fri Aug 25 2023
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters...
the areas affected include... Huron islands to marquette mi... Marquette to munising mi...
at 320 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. This Thunderstorm was located 7 nm southwest of presque isle, moving east at 25 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
&&
lat...lon 4649 8741 4658 8751 4655 8695 4645 8697 4648 8702 4644 8724

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 030002 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 802 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SHORT TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an amplified mid-upper level trough over the western U.S. with amplified ridging downstream across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. A warm- advection south-southwest flow between these features has pushed afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s thus far, warmest over the west half. Cirrus clouds drifting in from convection over MN somewhat limited heating earlier this afternoon.
As of 3 pm, the high temperature thus far at NWS Marquette was 85F.
We would need to rise two more degrees to tie the record high for the date of 87F, so we'll see what happens but it's getting pretty late in the day now for additional heating to take place.
Regardless, suffice it to say we are about 20-25F above normal highs for this time of the year and conditions should remain dry under high pressure the rest of the day.

Tonight, will need to watch a weak shortwave now rounding the backside of the ridge which is touching off some shower activity over east-central MN. Some of the CAMS have some isolated convection initiating over nw Lake Superior in the vicinity of Isle Royale this evening and eventually building south into Ontonagon County through the Keweenaw late evening into the overnight hours in an environment of around 500 j/KG of MUCAPE. So, I did include a slight chc of showers/t-storms over these areas tonight. Otherwise, expect dry conditions elsewhere. With the warm airmass in place and a southwest gradient wind to keep the low-levels somewhat mixed, especially across the northern tier of the U.P., min temps are going to stay quite mild tonight with readings ranging from the upper 50s over the interior central and east and well into the 60s for downsloping locations along Lake Superior.

One other side note here at NWS Marquette, if we can stay 66F or warmer through midnight standard time tonight not only would we would break the record high minimum temperature for October 2 but we would also break the record high minimum for any calendar day in October. The weather records at our office date back to 1961.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a ridge across the eastern half of the U.S. 12z Tue. The trough moves into the northern plains 00z Wed with the trough axis moving into the upper Great Lakes 00z Thu. Trough digs into the Great Lakes 00z Fri. Dry and warm weather will continue through Tue night before front gets close enough by for pops on Wed. Could be some record highs on Tue and possibly even Wed depending on when clouds and pops move in. Would not be surprised to see a delay in movement of pops on Wed and most of day turns out to be dry and still warm as trough digs to the west and is going up against a strong ridge. Usually when this happens, pops move in later than what we forecast and this scenario does seem likely.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the western U.S. and a deep trough across the central U.S. with a ridge off the east coast 12z Fri. The trough axis moves to the east over the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat and into the eastern U.S. 12z Sun as the ridge moves into the Rockies. The upper pattern then changes little for Mon. It will be showery with below normal temperatures warming through the period with lake effect showers as cold air moves across the warmer Great Lakes waters.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 802 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with dry air over the area. The only threat will be possible LLWS at IWD this evening into tonight.

MARINE
(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 321 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023

A prolonged period of 30 knot winds will be the main story for this forecast. South winds will continue less than 20 knots through Tue before increasing to 30 knots Tue night into Wed where there could be some gale force gusts from the southwest. Southwest winds will continue on Thu to 30 knots when a cold front moves through and winds continue from the west and then northwest. NW to N winds to 30 knots will continue into Sat. There could be some gale force gusts to 35 knots at times Thu into Sat. Confidence in a gale event is still low though during this time period.

CLIMATE
Issued at 321 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023

Record high maximum temperatures at the NWS Office in Negaunee: Oct. 2: 87 (1992)
Oct. 3: 78 (2005)
Oct. 4: 76 (2007/2011)

Record high minimum temperatures at the NWS Office in Negaunee: Oct. 2: 60 (2005)
Oct. 3: 65 (2005)
Oct. 4: 60 (2005)

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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