NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LSZ148 /o.exp.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 641 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning will expire at 645 pm cdt...
the affected areas were... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Oak point to saxon harbor wi... Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland...
the showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A gale warning remains in effect for this area until 12 am cdt tonight.
lat...lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time...mot...loc 2340z 265deg 35kt 4710 9010 4694 9019 4679 9044

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 011129 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 529 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

DISCUSSION
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Key Messages:

1) Quiet weather today with high temps hovering around freezing.

2) Low snow chances (10-30%) for the weekend. Little to no accumulation expected.

3) Slightly more active weather for next week with some clippers sliding across the Northland.

4) Warming trend continues through the forecast period with highs climbing into the low 40s and upper 30s late next week.

Current conditions/Today:

Surface high pressure is building across the Upper Midwest today with light winds at the surface and partly sunny conditions at times. Look for highs to hover around freezing today.

Weekend:

The aforementioned high pressure will slide southeast on Saturday turning winds to out of the southeast. Combining the return moisture flow over the Lake we could see some lake effect processes take place along the North Shore. However, delta Ts are not overly impressive and shear is a bit too high for any plumes to hold together. For now, we have kept the mention of flurries with little to no accumulation along the North Shore.

Saturday evening and through Sunday a trough will swing across the Midwest and could bring some light snow across NW WI. The better forcing continues to be much farther south across MO and IL but due to some agreement in the models for isentropic upglide we have kept PoPs around 10-30%. Moisture availability is still very limited so any accumulators will be minimal.

Additional precipitation chances next week:

We will continue to see a additional chances for precipitation next week as a clipper is advertised to slide across the Northern Plains Monday/Tuesday. Ensemble guidance remains inconsistent with the run to run depiction. Often times oscillating between a dry forecast and a minimal amount of QPF. The latest trend for this package has increased chances for snow with most models keeping snow totals less then an inch with the clipper.

There is one interesting feature out in the extended forecast worth keeping an eye on. Both the GEFS and the Euro ensembles are hinting at cyclogenesis in southern Alberta late Tuesday. The thing that makes this worth watching is that the integrated water vapor transport suggests an atmospheric river streaming into northern CA. Depending on how this low progresses it could bring some of that moisture into the Northland. The current path of the low beyond it's formation in Alberta has a large spread so a bit too soon to get anyones hopes up too high.

Temperature trend:

Lastly, temperatures will continue their warming trend through the next 7 days. Today is will be the coolest with a potential for some low 40s by late next week.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 528 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

VFR conditions throughout the forecast period. Satellite shows some low clouds filtering in across northern MN and into NW WI this morning. Ceilometers are showing the bases over 3000 ft. High pressure will be over the region today and tonight keeping winds light.

MARINE
Issued at 244 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Much calmer conditions across Lake Superior in the near term as high pressure slides into the Northland today. Winds will be west to southwest around 5-10 knots. This weekend winds will back to out of the southeast with similar speeds as today. Some lake effect showers will be possible along the North Shore.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 31 20 32 25 / 0 0 10 20 INL 31 16 32 22 / 10 0 10 0 BRD 32 20 34 24 / 0 0 0 10 HYR 33 17 34 24 / 0 0 10 20 ASX 34 19 36 25 / 0 0 10 20

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Duluth, MN,