Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Odanah, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Current Conditions/Today:

The rex blocking pattern has largely broken down as remnants of the upper level low have transitioned into an open wave moving over the Ohio River Valley. The Northland still finds itself caught between a surface low to our west and high pressure to the east but with slightly higher moisture return along the southeast winds expected to today. The combination of diurnal heating and some left over vorticity couplets aloft should provide some scattered showers and storms. CAMs are also hinting at some convection firing off the Lake breeze boundary, particularly in northwestern WI. Any storms that do form are expected to stay sub severe. While we do manage to have some decent instability with MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg we are lacking in the bulk shear department. Storms will grow upscale quickly but end up collapsing on themselves unable to generate the tilted needed for sustainability. With that being said the primary hazards would be hail of pea to dime size and some strong outflows from collapsing storms.

Thursday:

A negatively tilted trough will rotate out of the Northern Plains on Thursday leading to a strengthening surface low. A broad warm front will stretch from ND through MN and WI and begin to occlude through the day as an upper level jet runs through the tilted trough.
Ahead of this boundary we will see enhanced buoyancy across the region as dewpoints climb into the 60s. Some discrete cells ahead of the boundary will be possible initially, but the latest CAMs are showing agreement with the storm structure turning more linear as the boundary wraps NE through the afternoon and evening. Primary hazards would be damaging winds and large hail with NW WI being in the best corridor of favorable steep mid level lapse rates paired with strong shear. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with helicity of around 200. The SPC is still carrying an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) into NW WI with a slight expansion westward. The Brainerd lakes region up through the Twin Ports and Silver Bay are highlighted in a Marginal Risk. (1 out of 5).

Friday:

The main line of convection will move out of the region Thursday night as a dry slot filters in behind the front. The vertically stacked low will be slow moving on Friday as it slides through the Northland. Wrap around moisture will still provide rain chances with a few rumbles of thunder possible on Friday. What will be most notable will be the drop in temperatures. Highs will go from 70s and 80s on Thursday to 50s and 60s on Friday. Rain totals from this system still have a broad range. Probabilistically we still have a 60- 80% of widespread 0.50 inches of rain. This latest update has seen a slight reduction along far northern MN with probabilities dropping to 30-50%.

Weekend:

Remnant rain showers will be tapering off Saturday. There still remains some high discrepancies with how quickly the system departs this weekend. The GFS and its family members is favoring a quicker exit while the Euro has the wrap around moisture and low lingering over Lake Superior through the day. For now we will carry a 30% chance of PoPs for the day. Widespread 50s are expected across the Northland with our overnight lows dropping to near freezing. Frost Advisories may be needed.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are likely in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon, and more isolated coverage into northeast Minnesota. A few thunderstorms could (30-40% chance)
approach area terminals in far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin; this is shown by PROB30 and TEMPOs at DLH and HYR for this afternoon and early evening. Even high heavy rainfall and widespread thunderstorm chances increase from south to northeast after 15Z Thursday first in the Brainerd Lakes region. Severe storms are possible with this round of thunderstorms Thursday mid-day to afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 1040 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Update - Open water dense fog seen on satellite imagery has moved onshore to the North Shore where webcams over last half- hour. Short-term high res guidance keeps this fog bank moving southward so Dense Fog Advisories have been issued for today along the North Shore and Outer Apostle Islands, and then for the southwest arm of the lake this evening into Thursday morning. The rest of the previous discussion stands below.

Northeast winds today of 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots. There may be a brief period of gusts to 25 knots around 5PM this evening at the head of the Lake as funneling winds crash onshore. But the better chances for more widespread windy conditions will be on Thursday as a system approaches from the west. There are several chances for storms the next couple days as well. Today will be diurnally driven storms which may impact the nearshore waters this afternoon and evening. Thursday has a more linear storm projected to move over the Lake in the afternoon and evening hours and may produce severe weather. Lastly, there is a signal for dense fog engulfing much of the Lake tonight.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>142-150.
Dense Fog Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ143>146.