Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:43 PM   Moonset 3:46 AM

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LSZ148 /o.exp.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 641 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning will expire at 645 pm cdt - .
the affected areas were - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Oak point to saxon harbor wi - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - .
the showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A gale warning remains in effect for this area until 12 am cdt tonight.
lat - .lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time - .mot - .loc 2340z 265deg 35kt 4710 9010 4694 9019 4679 9044

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 190836 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 336 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers today (20-40%) Coverage will increase in the afternoon. The primary impacts will be occasional heavy bursts of snow with gusty winds reducing visibilities to less then a half a mile at times. Accumulations will remain less then an inch

- Elevated fire weather concerns for the weekend due to low RHs and gusty winds

- Next weather system will enter from the west early next week.
Current guidance suggests rain will be the primary precipitation type with some snow mixing in during the overnight and morning hours.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Current conditions/Today:

An upper level low was moving into central Ontario this morning.
Satellite and radar showcase a stratus deck engulfing the region with some light snow and flurries being reported at times. Cloud cover is expected to persist through the day. While we don't have a good gulf connection the aforementioned low is still carrying a fair amount of wrap around moisture highlighted well in the advected precipitable water. Cold air aloft (850mb temps of -8C to -10C)
mixed with the broad scale forcing from vorticity in the area will promote additional snow showers today. This shower activity will increase as we head into the afternoon hours as low level lapse rates steepen to 8C/km. CAMs support the scattered and convective nature of these showers. The primary impacts will be occasional heavy bursts of snow with gusty winds reducing visibilities to less then a half a mile at times. Accumulations will still be limited as we have a higher sun angle in time of year with temperatures climbing into 40s this afternoon. Expect accumulations to remain less then an inch.

Weekend:

The weekend will be quiet and dry as surface high pressure builds over the Great Plains. We will still endure some breezy conditions but mostly sunny to clear skies will see temperatures rebound into the 50s by Sunday. There will be some elevated concerns for fire weather due to dry conditions and gusty winds. Based on the latest forecast package the area of most concern would be the Arrowhead on Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch may be issued in later shifts.

Early Next Week:

Another weather system is projected to sink southeast out of Saskatchewan early next week. Details with system still remain in flux as both the GEFS and Euro ensembles show a decent amount of spread and timing with the forecasted low positions. The GEFS are a little faster and take a more northerly track when compared to the Euro. With cooler air still in place precipitation type will be largely dependent on the low track. If the low manages to track farther south it will draw in cooler air from the north allowing for increased snow chances. For now, the mean low position favors a mostly rain brew with some rain/snow mix in the overnight and early morning timeframes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

An upper level low moving across Ontario will keep cloud cover across the Northland through the forecast period. Intermittent flurries and snow showers are currently being observed this morning.
This activity is expected to increase as we head into the afternoon with widespread areas of snow showers percolating across the region.
Accumulations will remain less then an inch but the convective nature combined with gusts winds will lead to breif episodes of of LIFR visibilities. This activity will taper off in the evening hours.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Westerly winds are streaming across the Lake this morning with gusts up to 25 kts. These winds are expected to persist into Saturday. Our current Small Craft Advisory continues through Sunday evening but there has been a slight downward trend in the wind forecast starting Saturday afternoon. If this trend holds we may be able to cancel the advisory sooner.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140>148-150.

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