Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yakima, WA
December 1, 2023 9:22 AM PST (17:22 UTC)
Sunrise 7:23AM Sunset 4:18PM Moonrise 8:10PM Moonset 11:38AM
Area Discussion for - Pendleton, OR
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FXUS66 KPDT 011137 AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 337 AM PST Fri Dec 1 2023
SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday...The first in a prolonged series of upper weather systems has exit the region this early morning, while a northwest flow aloft has setup behind this system. Earlier in the evening, this system brought light snow with accumulations generally around an inch or less in the lower elevations, while reports of an inch to 3 inches have been noted in mountain zones. Areas of snow induced patchy fog have also developed along the Blue Mountain foothills, Yakima/Kittitas valleys, and the Columbia Basin.
Radar imagery along the PacNW coast shows the next shortwave trough in northwest flow aloft fast approaching the region this morning. The main band of precipitation will quickly move across the forecast area and exit by the afternoon. This shortwave trough is expected to start the process of increasing snow levels from southwest to northeast, as well as begin to scour out the colder airmass that has settled in the Columbia Basin and the adjacent valleys. Light to moderate snow in the lower elevations will be possible at onset of precipitation this morning, but as the day progresses toward the afternoon, the expectation is for precipitation to become a wintry mix with isolated pockets of just rain along the southern and eastern fringes of the Lower Columbia Basin as well as in north central OR. That said, CAMS are indicating that stubborn pocket of cold air in the eastern Gorge will allow for a slight chance of light freezing rain for a couple hours before 10AM. Otherwise, moderate to heavy snow will be possible in the Cascades, Northern Blues, and Wallowas while light to moderate snow will be possible in the eastern mountains. After the main band of precipitation passes through the lower elevations, breezy west to southwest winds will develop and help to continue scouring out the colder airmass near the surface in the lower elevations.
Early tomorrow, the next more potent shortwave trough is expected to dive southeast across the PacNW bringing with it more precipitation and stronger winds area-wide. Ahead of this system arrival, however, winds around 850mb are expected to take on a more southerly component and push a more mild airmass into the intermountain PacNW. The expectation is for snow levels to rise to above 3kft to 3.5kft later tonight, resulting in mostly rain or a rain dominant rain/snow mix at onset of precipitation. As the day progresses, snow levels will still be between 3kft to 3.5kft across the northern half of the forecast area, with an increasing gradient to 5.5kft moving towards the southern edge of the forecast area (central OR and Ochoco-John Day Highlands). This will result in mostly rain across the lower elevations tomorrow, while moderate to heavy snow continues in the mountains. West to southwest winds will increase quite a bit area-wide early tomorrow morning, with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts between 45-50mph expected to develop in the Oregon Columbia Basin, along the Blue Mountain foothills up to Dayton, and across the higher ridges in the Cascades. Elsewhere in the lower elevations, sustained winds will generally be 15-25mph with gusts 30-45mph possible as well. Winds will weaken overnight Saturday, except for areas of central OR and the eastern mountains where breezy south winds will continue through the overnight hours.
By early Sunday morning, flow aloft will have become more zonal while a potent warm front will arrive to the PacNW with yet another round of heavy mountain precipitation. With south to southwest winds at 850mb continuing in the overnight hours as well as the expected arrival of the warm front in the morning, snow levels will quickly rise to above 6kft to 7kft across the forecast area, resulting in precipitation falling as mostly rain outside of the higher peaks in the Cascades and Wallowas. By Sunday afternoon, area rivers and streams will begin to respond to the moderate to heavy rain on the newly established snowpack, with rises anticipated through early next week. As a result, area stream and river flooding will begin to be a concern through the middle of next week, though at this time current forecasts keep rivers within bankfull towards the end of next week. Will continue to monitor river forecasts in case river flooding highlights will be needed. Otherwise, breezy west to southwest winds will redevelop across the lower elevations Sunday morning through the afternoon, though winds will be generally be 15-25mph with gusts 30-40mph possible in the lower elevations.
While snow is expected again in the lower elevations today, model guidance advertises less than 15% chances of exceeding 1 inch of snow accumulations through this afternoon. Turning our attention to the mountains over the next 48 hours, the chance of exceeding 12/18 inches of snowfall in the northern Blues, Wallowas, and Cascade east slopes are >90%/60-75% respectively. For the same period in the southern Blues and Ochoco-John Day Highlands, the probabilities of exceeding 6 inches is generally 40-60%, though the higher peaks above 5kft in eastern Grant county and southwest Union county will see a 60-80% chance of exceeding 10 inches of snowfall. Lawhorn/82
LONG TERM
Monday through Friday....Latest GEFS and EC ensembles are in good agreement on the 500 mb height pattern through the extended period. An upper ridge will build northward across the region on Monday which will result in a surge of warmer air and higher snow levels (rising to 9000 feet MSL) which will result in all precipitation falling as rain. Latest GEFS and EPS show a weak atmospheric river extending into the inland Northwest from Monday into Wednesday which will result in moderate to heavy QPF. NBM 50th percentile QPF for the 72 hour period ending 12Z Wednesday range from .25-
50 inches in the lower elevations
1.5-2.0 inches in the Blue Mountains and 3-5 inches along the Cascade crest of Oregon and Washington. Hydrologic conditions will have to be monitored next week as the rain falls on the heavy snow that is expected over the next 24 hours. Most of the rivers are running fairly low at the present time, but the current RFC forecast shows the Naches River getting close to bankfull on Wednesday.
On Monday into Tuesday a southeasterly pressure gradient is forecast to set up across eastern Oregon and extreme southeast Washington.
The NBM deterministic is not showing particularly strong winds but pattern recognition would suggest that stronger winds would be possible along the base of the Blues and the Grande Ronde Valley.
For this forecast increased the winds to the 90th percentile NBM values to reflect the potential for stronger winds.
On Thursday into Friday 500 mb heights begin to lower as a shortwave trough moves across the region. Snow levels will lower but as this occurs, QPF will be lighter. Precipitable water decreases to near normal compared to 150-200 percent of normal earlier in the week. By Friday afternoon/evening POPS will be down to 25-40 percent in the mountains and 10-20 percent in the lowlands. At that time snow levels will be 2000-3000 feet.
AVIATION
12Z TAFs...A band of light to locally moderate snow snow will move quickly across the region this morning and exit KALW and KPDT around midday. This will cause IFR/LIFR conditions except at KBDN and KRDM where mostly MVFR conditions are expected. Afterward winds will pick up a bit especially at KPDT...KRDM and KBDN where 20-25 kt gusts are expected. This will aid in improving vsbys to mostly VFR by late this afternoon. By this evening CIGS will become VFR at 035-050 feet AGL with mid clouds above. 78
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 41 35 46 39 / 80 50 80 90 ALW 40 34 47 40 / 90 70 90 80 PSC 39 32 51 42 / 90 40 50 70 YKM 37 25 47 32 / 90 40 60 70 HRI 43 35 50 41 / 90 40 60 80 ELN 35 26 42 30 / 90 60 70 60 RDM 42 30 47 38 / 80 30 70 90 LGD 40 30 42 34 / 90 80 100 90 GCD 39 29 43 36 / 90 60 90 100 DLS 46 37 48 42 / 90 70 90 90
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for ORZ044-507-508.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for ORZ502.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for ORZ503-506.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for ORZ509.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Saturday for ORZ509.
WA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for WAZ029.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for WAZ030.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for WAZ522.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for WAZ523.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 337 AM PST Fri Dec 1 2023
SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday...The first in a prolonged series of upper weather systems has exit the region this early morning, while a northwest flow aloft has setup behind this system. Earlier in the evening, this system brought light snow with accumulations generally around an inch or less in the lower elevations, while reports of an inch to 3 inches have been noted in mountain zones. Areas of snow induced patchy fog have also developed along the Blue Mountain foothills, Yakima/Kittitas valleys, and the Columbia Basin.
Radar imagery along the PacNW coast shows the next shortwave trough in northwest flow aloft fast approaching the region this morning. The main band of precipitation will quickly move across the forecast area and exit by the afternoon. This shortwave trough is expected to start the process of increasing snow levels from southwest to northeast, as well as begin to scour out the colder airmass that has settled in the Columbia Basin and the adjacent valleys. Light to moderate snow in the lower elevations will be possible at onset of precipitation this morning, but as the day progresses toward the afternoon, the expectation is for precipitation to become a wintry mix with isolated pockets of just rain along the southern and eastern fringes of the Lower Columbia Basin as well as in north central OR. That said, CAMS are indicating that stubborn pocket of cold air in the eastern Gorge will allow for a slight chance of light freezing rain for a couple hours before 10AM. Otherwise, moderate to heavy snow will be possible in the Cascades, Northern Blues, and Wallowas while light to moderate snow will be possible in the eastern mountains. After the main band of precipitation passes through the lower elevations, breezy west to southwest winds will develop and help to continue scouring out the colder airmass near the surface in the lower elevations.
Early tomorrow, the next more potent shortwave trough is expected to dive southeast across the PacNW bringing with it more precipitation and stronger winds area-wide. Ahead of this system arrival, however, winds around 850mb are expected to take on a more southerly component and push a more mild airmass into the intermountain PacNW. The expectation is for snow levels to rise to above 3kft to 3.5kft later tonight, resulting in mostly rain or a rain dominant rain/snow mix at onset of precipitation. As the day progresses, snow levels will still be between 3kft to 3.5kft across the northern half of the forecast area, with an increasing gradient to 5.5kft moving towards the southern edge of the forecast area (central OR and Ochoco-John Day Highlands). This will result in mostly rain across the lower elevations tomorrow, while moderate to heavy snow continues in the mountains. West to southwest winds will increase quite a bit area-wide early tomorrow morning, with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts between 45-50mph expected to develop in the Oregon Columbia Basin, along the Blue Mountain foothills up to Dayton, and across the higher ridges in the Cascades. Elsewhere in the lower elevations, sustained winds will generally be 15-25mph with gusts 30-45mph possible as well. Winds will weaken overnight Saturday, except for areas of central OR and the eastern mountains where breezy south winds will continue through the overnight hours.
By early Sunday morning, flow aloft will have become more zonal while a potent warm front will arrive to the PacNW with yet another round of heavy mountain precipitation. With south to southwest winds at 850mb continuing in the overnight hours as well as the expected arrival of the warm front in the morning, snow levels will quickly rise to above 6kft to 7kft across the forecast area, resulting in precipitation falling as mostly rain outside of the higher peaks in the Cascades and Wallowas. By Sunday afternoon, area rivers and streams will begin to respond to the moderate to heavy rain on the newly established snowpack, with rises anticipated through early next week. As a result, area stream and river flooding will begin to be a concern through the middle of next week, though at this time current forecasts keep rivers within bankfull towards the end of next week. Will continue to monitor river forecasts in case river flooding highlights will be needed. Otherwise, breezy west to southwest winds will redevelop across the lower elevations Sunday morning through the afternoon, though winds will be generally be 15-25mph with gusts 30-40mph possible in the lower elevations.
While snow is expected again in the lower elevations today, model guidance advertises less than 15% chances of exceeding 1 inch of snow accumulations through this afternoon. Turning our attention to the mountains over the next 48 hours, the chance of exceeding 12/18 inches of snowfall in the northern Blues, Wallowas, and Cascade east slopes are >90%/60-75% respectively. For the same period in the southern Blues and Ochoco-John Day Highlands, the probabilities of exceeding 6 inches is generally 40-60%, though the higher peaks above 5kft in eastern Grant county and southwest Union county will see a 60-80% chance of exceeding 10 inches of snowfall. Lawhorn/82
LONG TERM
Monday through Friday....Latest GEFS and EC ensembles are in good agreement on the 500 mb height pattern through the extended period. An upper ridge will build northward across the region on Monday which will result in a surge of warmer air and higher snow levels (rising to 9000 feet MSL) which will result in all precipitation falling as rain. Latest GEFS and EPS show a weak atmospheric river extending into the inland Northwest from Monday into Wednesday which will result in moderate to heavy QPF. NBM 50th percentile QPF for the 72 hour period ending 12Z Wednesday range from .25-
50 inches in the lower elevations
1.5-2.0 inches in the Blue Mountains and 3-5 inches along the Cascade crest of Oregon and Washington. Hydrologic conditions will have to be monitored next week as the rain falls on the heavy snow that is expected over the next 24 hours. Most of the rivers are running fairly low at the present time, but the current RFC forecast shows the Naches River getting close to bankfull on Wednesday.
On Monday into Tuesday a southeasterly pressure gradient is forecast to set up across eastern Oregon and extreme southeast Washington.
The NBM deterministic is not showing particularly strong winds but pattern recognition would suggest that stronger winds would be possible along the base of the Blues and the Grande Ronde Valley.
For this forecast increased the winds to the 90th percentile NBM values to reflect the potential for stronger winds.
On Thursday into Friday 500 mb heights begin to lower as a shortwave trough moves across the region. Snow levels will lower but as this occurs, QPF will be lighter. Precipitable water decreases to near normal compared to 150-200 percent of normal earlier in the week. By Friday afternoon/evening POPS will be down to 25-40 percent in the mountains and 10-20 percent in the lowlands. At that time snow levels will be 2000-3000 feet.
AVIATION
12Z TAFs...A band of light to locally moderate snow snow will move quickly across the region this morning and exit KALW and KPDT around midday. This will cause IFR/LIFR conditions except at KBDN and KRDM where mostly MVFR conditions are expected. Afterward winds will pick up a bit especially at KPDT...KRDM and KBDN where 20-25 kt gusts are expected. This will aid in improving vsbys to mostly VFR by late this afternoon. By this evening CIGS will become VFR at 035-050 feet AGL with mid clouds above. 78
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 41 35 46 39 / 80 50 80 90 ALW 40 34 47 40 / 90 70 90 80 PSC 39 32 51 42 / 90 40 50 70 YKM 37 25 47 32 / 90 40 60 70 HRI 43 35 50 41 / 90 40 60 80 ELN 35 26 42 30 / 90 60 70 60 RDM 42 30 47 38 / 80 30 70 90 LGD 40 30 42 34 / 90 80 100 90 GCD 39 29 43 36 / 90 60 90 100 DLS 46 37 48 42 / 90 70 90 90
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for ORZ044-507-508.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for ORZ502.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for ORZ503-506.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for ORZ509.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Saturday for ORZ509.
WA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for WAZ029.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for WAZ030.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for WAZ522.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for WAZ523.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KYKM YAKIMA AIR TERMINAL/MCALLISTER FIELD,WA | 3 sm | 29 min | calm | 4 sm | Overcast | Mist | 28°F | 27°F | 93% | 29.74 |
Wind History from YKM
(wind in knots)
Pendleton, OR,
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