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FXUS61 KCAR 030316 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1116 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build eastward across Maine this evening before settling southeast of the region by Wednesday afternoon. This system will bring dry and warm conditions through Wednesday. An approaching trough of low pressure will bring increasing clouds and humidity, with a chance for isolated showers on Independence Day. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible over the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will remain generally above early July averages through the next 5 to 7 days.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
11:15 PM Update...The calm clear air has allowed valley areas over the north to cool into the mid to upper 50s already so adjusted temps in these areas to reflect the cooler air.
Otherwise, the sky is clear and the forecast remains on track.

6:29PM Update...Minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast for sky conditions. Adjusted the temps/dews based on obs trends. No other changes.

3:30 PM Update...Tranquil weather is generally expected through the near-term period. Fair weather cumulus clouds combined with high level cirrus are in place this afternoon as a ridge of surface high pressure builds eastward across Northern New England. We'll see cumulus clouds dissipate with the onset of diurnal cooling this evening, and winds will generally become light and variable for the overnight hours. With some high thin clouds continuing to drift across the region, radiative cooling will be mitigated slightly, with overnight lows generally in the mid-50s, with upper-50s far Downeast.

On Wednesday, surface high pressure drifts offshore with a developing S-SW flow (5-10 mph) across much of central and northern Maine. High temperatures will again reach the low-mid 80s. However, it will be a touch more humid as 2-m dewpoints climb into the mid- upper 50s, and locally near 60F at the coast. Will see mostly sunny conditions in the morning, though a trend toward filtered sunshine is possible in the afternoon as mid- upper level clouds increase.

For Wednesday night, a decaying surface trough will approach from the west during the overnight hrs. Continued S-SW gradient flow and mid- level cloudiness will keep overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Generally dry for much of the night.
However, may see isold/sct rain showers reach northern Maine during the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Max PoPs generally 40-45% in the Allagash toward daybreak Thursday, with PoPs generally remaining below 20% at BGR and points south and east.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Warm and somewhat humid conditions are expected for Independence Day with highs in the low-mid 80s across the interior. A stronger S-SW onshore flow on Thursday will keep coastal sections in the low-mid 70s. Dewpoints will generally climb into the lower 60s areawide. While large-scale forcing is weak, modest cyclonic flow aloft and developing instability during the afternoon hours across northern sections (SBCAPE 500-900 J/kg) may allow for a few showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. PoPs are generally 20-30% across far northern/northwestern Maine. For Downeast sections, the stabilizing influence of the onshore flow should preclude any convective shower development closer to the coast.
May see some advection fog move into coastal sections during Thursday night with onshore flow continuing through the overnight period. Thursday night lows will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, coolest near the ocean.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Coastal fog is possible through mid-morning on Friday.
Otherwise, a weak cold front moving through the region from NW- SE should bring slightly cooler temperatures across the far north (highs upper 70s to around 80F). Highs generally lower 80s near BGR and adjacent areas of interior Maine, and the weak frontal bndry may be sufficient for a few showers during the afternoon hours. Included just slight chance wording with PoPs near 20%.

For the weekend, appears a strong warm front and attendant mid- level trough will bring greater chances for showers and possible thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Included PoPs 40-60% on Saturday and generally 40-50% for additional convective activity possible on Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, mid-summer conditions should prevail. Warm and humid conditions will continue into the early part of next week, with highs 80-85F Monday and Tuesday (cooler near the coast). Early indications are that SW boundary layer winds across the state will bring dewpoints into the mid-60s across northern Maine, and possibly in the 65-70F range across the central and eastern interior.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period with just scattered daytime fair weather cumulus clouds (SCT050-060) and some passing high clouds thru 18Z Wednesday. No precipitation is expected. Winds generally N-NE 5-10kts through early this evening, becoming light and variable after sunset as high pressure builds overhead. Winds becoming S-SE 5-10kts toward late morning/early afternoon Wednesday as ridge axis shifts to our east. No sig wx expected. 9:45PM Update...Will call it clear skies across the area as diurnal cu has dried up and just a few areas of thin high cirrus passing over but safe to call it clear skies tonight although a few high cirrus will continue. There is some 9000ft clouds that developed at sunset off the Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick into portions of NE Aroostook. Latest Nighttime Microphysics scheme satellite data shows those drying some but cannot rule this out over the next several hours mainly confined to Caribou to Hamlin in extreme NE Aroostook County. Temperatures are cooling back to the 60s and winds becoming light and variable. We are approaching the new moon so a great night for stargazing minus the bugs!...

OUTLOOK: Slight chance of showers with VFR/MVFR conditions on Thursday with winds becoming S-SW. Chances for marine stratus and fog increase at BHB during Thursday night through mid-morning Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the upcoming weekend with brief intervals of MVFR/IFR conditions possible at the TAF locations.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas conditions will be below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Wednesday, with wave heights generally 2-3 ft across the offshore waters.
9:45PM Update...Will call it clear skies across the area as diurnal cu has dried up and just a few areas of thin high cirrus passing over but safe to call it clear skies tonight although a few high cirrus will continue. There is some 9000ft clouds that developed at sunset off the Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick into portions of NE Aroostook. Latest Nighttime Microphysics scheme satellite data shows those drying some but cannot rule this out over the next several hours mainly confined to Caribou to Hamlin in extreme NE Aroostook County. Temperatures are cooling back to the 60s and winds becoming light and variable.
We are approaching the new moon so a great night for stargazing minus the bugs!...
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas remain below small craft advisory levels Wednesday night through Thursday night. Increasing chances for fog Thursday eve/night, possibly lasting through mid-morning on Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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