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FXUS61 KCAR 032019 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 419 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
A front stalls across Maine tonight, then moves back north in the form of a warm front Wednesday. High pressure will be centered well to the east Thursday through Friday. A complex storm system approaches from the west Friday night through Saturday, then slowly crosses the area Saturday night and Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A frontal boundary stalls across the region tonight while high pressure builds south across the Maritimes. The high will begin to move east Wednesday. With the developing return flow, the frontal boundary will lift back north in the form of a warm front Wednesday. Aloft, upper ridging builds across the region tonight into Wednesday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across the region tonight. However, isolated showers moving over the top of the building upper ridge could clip northern areas overnight. Patchy fog is also possible overnight, mostly across central and Downeast areas. Expect partly sunny skies across the region Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s Downeast. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 70s across much of the forecast area, with upper 60s to around 70 along the Downeast coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The axis of the deep layered ridge slowly slides to the east Wednesday night through Friday. Subsidence under the ridge should keep things dry. There should be patches to possibly areas of fog at night/during the early morning hours.

Lows Wednesday night should be around 20 degrees above normal.
Highs on Thursday and lows Thursday night should be around 10 degrees normal nearer the coast to up to around 20 degrees above normal across portions of the North. Highs On Friday should be around 15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Remains from just east of the Great Lakes to over Western Quebec from Friday night through Tuesday, depending on your model of choice. This cutoff low interacts with Tropical Cyclone Philippe, as it transitions towards extra-tropical and possible merger with the cutoff low. The result will be a gradually increasing chance of rain from Friday night into Saturday night (likely pops everywhere Saturday night). The rain chances should remain high on Sunday, then become more intermittent/showery in nature Monday/Tuesday.

Depending on how much tropical moisture from Philippe gets entrained into the cutoff, will determine how much rainfall we get from this weekend into early next week. There is the potential for a prolonged period of locally heavy rainfall over the weekend. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to how things will play out this far out in time. As a result its too early to begin specify what, if any, impacts might be had.

Refer to the most recent products from the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Philippe.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR early tonight, then generally VFR/MVFR overnight through early Wednesday though variable conditions are possible with any patchy fog. Isolated showers are also possible across northern areas overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected Wednesday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday night-Friday...VFR, except MVFR or lower possible in any fog overnight/early in the morning. The best chance for any fog is in favored valley locations. S-SW winds G15-20KT possible Thursday and Friday afternoon at northern terminals.

Fri night-Sunday...MVFR or lower possible Friday night. IFR or lower possible Saturday-Sunday. LLWS possible.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters Wednesday night-Friday should limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to 3 ft or less. Patchy to areas of fog are possible late at night/early in the morning limiting visibilities to 1 nm or less at times.

The pressure gradient tightens Friday night, but conditions should remain just below SCA levels.

A persistent and gradually strengthening SE flow Saturday-Sunday should at least bring seas to SCA levels on the coastal ocean waters. There is also a chance for SCA level seas on the inter- coastal waters by Sunday. Gusts to around 25 kt are also possible on all waters Saturday and Sunday.

CLIMATE
Record Highs have already been set today:

The following record highs have been set for today, 10/3: Millinocket 80F, old record 78F (1916)
Bangor 81F, old record 77F (2000)
Houlton 78F, old record 77 (1950)
Caribou 78F, old record 77 (2005*)
* = and in previous years

Record high minimum low temperatures are possible Thursday 10/5.
Record High Minimum Temperatures for 10/5:

Record High Min CAR: 56F (2005) Forecast: 57F Record High Min BGR: 59F (1932) Forecast: 56F Record High Min MLT: 58F (1932) Forecast: 57F Record High Min HUL: 56F (2005) Forecast: 56F Record High Min FVE: 57F (2005) Forecast: 57F

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None

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