Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashland, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
624 AM Update: Showers have cleared out of the area as seen on current KCBW radar. In its place, partly cloudy skies remain with a low deck of stratocu. This cloud cover will continue to increase through the day today ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on current observations and trends.

Previous Discussion: The occluding low pressure system will continue to move north and east away from the forecast area this morning. Lingering convective showers from early this morning will pull northwards with this low, leaving the CWA Patchy fog may linger through around sunrise due to the increase in moisture near the surface, but will lift out through the day due to diurnal mixing. Cool temperatures will continue today, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s throughout the region.

A cold front will approach from the west this evening and cross the CWA overnight tonight. This front will lead to another quick round of showers throughout the region. As already cool temperatures begin to lower, these showers will likely begin as snow, though the immediate coast may see rain showers instead.
Light accumulations are expected, with highest amounts in the north approaching one inch, though most likely any area which sees an inch or more of snow accumulation will be the higher elevation areas of the Central Highlands and the North Woods.
Winds will also pick up behind the front tonight into Wednesday morning, with gusts 30 to 35 mph.

A narrow ridge of high pressure will return into the day on Wednesday, and winds will diminish as the pressure gradient aloft relaxes. Though showers will have moved out to the east at this point, the narrow ridge will prevent clouds from clearing out as well, and a cloudy and cool day is in store for Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Upper-level troughing along moves through the area Wednesday night with shortwave ridging moving in behind it from the west.
A snow shower or two may pop up during the night, primarily in the North Woods, but otherwise expect mostly dry conditions and mostly cloudy skies. By mid-day Thursday the shortwave ridging will have weakened and exited the area as another shortwave trough moves in behind it. This shortwave should provide enough lift for scattered convective showers and snow showers to develop over the area. Northern areas are most likely to see snow as a result of steep low-level lapse rate despite temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The upper-low closes off in the maritimes Thursday night resulting in upper-level troughing remaining over the area on Friday with a few embedded shortwaves moving through the trough. This may result in another round of convective showers south and snow showers over the north.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
On Friday night, upper-level troughing remains in place while the closed low over the maritimes drifts slightly back west.
Meanwhile, upper-level ridging over the Great Lakes region will result in high pressure developing just off to our west. The pressure gradient between the departing low and high building in may make for some breezy conditions Friday night. The closed low remains off to the northeast Saturday which may result in some snow showers in northeast Aroostook as moisture wraps around the system. Meanwhile, conditions should be mostly dry elsewhere as high pressure builds in. High pressure should be short-lived before another weak low approaches from the Great Lakes region.
Models are expressing confidence on the existence of a weak low passing through our area but are still uncertain in exact intensity and timing. Currently expecting at least some rain/snow showers over much of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: Mostly MVFR conditions will continue through the morning. Another system will move through from west to east tonight, which may result in cigs and vis dropping back to IFR/LIFR at all terminals for a couple hours. Conditions will finally lift towards VFR across all terminals on Wednesday. SW winds 5 to 10 kts today will increase tonight to 10 to 15 kts and shift W. Gusts overnight may lift to 20 to 30 kts. Winds then decrease through the day on Wednesday, becoming SW around 5 to 10 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR/MVFR Downeast with a slight chance of early rain showers. Light and variable winds.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers north. A chance of rain showers Downeast. Variable winds around 5 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early.
North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow/rain showers north. VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain showers.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers all terminals. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Elevated seas remain through the day today with seas 5 to 8 ft, while wind gusts 20 to 25 kts increase through the day, reaching gale force this afternoon and lasting through the night tonight. Gusts will gradually decrease through the day on Wednesday, falling below small craft advisory levels Wednesday afternoon. However, seas will be slow to respond, remaining 3 to 6 ft through the day on Wednesday. Rain and snow showers possible tonight which could briefly limit visibility.

SHORT TERM: Seas decrease to below SCA criteria by Thursday morning. Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria through Friday. SCA conditions, mainly due to offshore gusts up to 25 kt, possible Friday night through Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.