Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashland, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Update (MS): Adjustments were made to low temperatures, generally down a couple degrees, based on model biases from last night and cloud cover trends. With crossover temperatures expected to be reached across coastal and Downeast Maine, patchy fog was added to the forecast from about midnight through 12z across Downeast Maine.
Visible satellite imagery also shows that high clouds are slower to move into the area and diurnal cumulus are dissipating, so the sky cover forecast was lowered. This trend will also support the lowering of temperatures and development of radiational fog. Bodies of water further inland may see localized fog formation as well around daybreak, but those details are not included in the forecast grids.

Previous Discussion: High pressure over Northern Maine will slowly move east tonight.
Cumulus clouds will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating.
With light winds, this will initially make for favorable radiational cooling conditions this evening. Clouds increase later tonight from southwest to northeast, which will limit the cooling. Thus, not expecting temperatures as cool as last night in the North. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s across most of Northern and Eastern Maine. Some colder valleys in Aroostook County could see upper 30s if skies stay clear long enough. That said, no frost concerns tonight.

High pressure will mostly remain in control for Sunday. However, a weak upper-level disturbance could bring isolated showers from the Central Highlands northward in the afternoon. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies. 850mb temperatures rise to 5-7 degrees Celsius on Sunday. This will support highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland. Southerly winds will keep Coastal Downeast in the lower to mid 60s. The immediate coast and outer islands could stay in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern Sunday night into Monday, as the ridge axis begins to shift eastward into early next week. Even still, mostly clear skies will continue. Clear skies and light winds Sunday night could lead to a strong radiational cooling night, with low temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 40s overnight. For the day on Monday, this pattern will continue a warming trend as temperatures lift into the low to mid 70s across the forecast area on Monday.

Zonal flow aloft will be the primary driver of the synoptic pattern through the early week. With this flow, weak disturbances will be ushered quickly into the area, with a surface trough of low pressure approaching from the west Monday night and moving into the CWA on Tuesday. This disturbance will bring the next chance for rain, particularly across the north, and there could be just enough instability building in by Tuesday afternoon for a few thunderstorms to develop. The warming trend will persist, with temperatures lifting into the mid to upper 70s throughout the forecast area on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Zonal flow continues through the middle of the week, with shortwaves continuing to push up through New England through the end of the week. For Wednesday, the warming trend is likely to continue still, though there is a bit more uncertainty for how much temperatures will warm as compared to earlier in the week, depending on how widespread rain showers develop across the area.

A more robust surface low pressure could begin to move into the forecast area on Thursday, with upper level support from the right entrance region of a jet streak sitting just north of the state. With more significant support and the first half of the week priming the region with warm air and increased low and mid level moisture, there could be some increased support for thunderstorm development throughout the CWA That said, there is still plenty to be determined: global deterministic models are all in disagreement for not only when the low will move through, but also how far north or south the low will track. Inspecting ensemble member plots further, the GEFS members appear to be in great disagreement with each other. EPS members are in a bit better agreement with each other, bringing the low in late Thursday, while the Canadian ensemble members are in some agreement with each other, but much earlier than the EPS. If the low moves through Thursday afternoon, there could be enough instability and shear for some stronger thunderstorms. If the low waits until Thursday night or early Friday, this might be more of a scattered shower event. And if the trough does not dig as far south, more of the area may remain dry at the end of the week.

Yet another short wave could move through the area on Saturday, though there is much to be seen about how this low would follow the previous low, which as stated above currently has some uncertainty for how it will play out.

AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions tonight and Sunday at all terminals. Moderate (70 percent) probability of fog and IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibility at BHB later tonight into the early morning hours. Low (20 percent) probability of IFR ceilings/visibility with BCFG at BGR late tonight into early Sunday morning. VCSH is likely for GNR northeastward to MLT, CAR, PQI, and HUL Sunday PM. Light and variable winds, becoming S 5-10 kts late Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sun night - Mon night: VFR across all terminals, with mostly SKC Sun night becoming SCT VFR on Mon. SW winds up to 5 kts.

Tues - Tues night: MVFR cigs building in from south to north, falling further towards IFR late Tues night. S winds 5 to 10 kts. Chance for thunder at northern terminals Tues afternoon.

Wed: MVFR/IFR continues with rain showers at all terminals, and a slight chance for thunder at northern terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts, especially around any thunderstorms.

Wed night: MVFR with lingering rain showers across most terminals. SW winds around 5 kts.

Thurs: MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. S winds 5 to 10 kts gusting to 20 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight and Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below small craft advisory levels through the middle of the upcoming week. Some patchy fog Sunday night into early Monday morning could limit visibility.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.