Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:33PM Friday August 23, 2019 9:07 PM ADT (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:27PMMoonset 1:42PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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location: 46.62, -68.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 232312
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
712 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the region through Sunday, then
slowly move east Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure from the west
will begin to approach on Wednesday into Thursday.

Near term through Saturday
710pm update...

still an isolated shower early this evening over the far north.

Any showers should dissipate shortly after sunset. Made some
small tweaks to sky cover based on current conditions. No
other changes needed.

Previous discussion... Latest Sat imagery conts to show a slow
se spread of sc CU from an initial S WV rotating SE across nrn
me arnd a semi-closed upper low ovr the gulf of st lawrence.

Current radar only shows very lgt rn shwr returns attm, but both
clds and isold-sct sprinkles and shwrs will cont to make a swrd
push as a second S WV moves SE acoss the fa from cntrl qb erly
this eve. Llvl 925-850mb moisture progs indicates that enhanced
sc cld cvr could reach as far S as interior downeast areas by
erly Sun morn, but likely not any shwrs. Winds will diminish
somewhat this eve with the loss of diurnal htg resulting in
decoupling with stronger winds alf. Otherwise, cld cvr and
breezy NW to N winds will keep temps from falling below 50 deg f
for erly morn Sat lows xcpt ovr the NW where mid to upper 40s
are likely.

Sat will begin ptly to msly cldy across the fa, but skies will
gradually clr out by aftn as the upper low moves E ovr the open
n atlc and subsidence from ridging both at the sfc and alf
works ewrd ovr our fa from cntrl qb. Winds will be breezy from
the n, spcly late morn, but not xpctd to be as strong as this
current aftn.

With clr skies, dry air, and winds becmg lgt and vrbl Sat ngt,
ideal radiational cooling conditions are xpcted with many lctns
across the N and cntrl vly lctns reaching lows in the 40s and
coldest NRN vly lctns in the mid to upper 30s by erly Sun morn,
resulting in a mention of patchy valley frost at these coldest
sites. Lastly, as is typical with successively colder fall like
airmasses spcly on radiational cooling ngts, patchy rvr
evaporational fog will form late Sat ngt into erly Sun morn due
to the difference between still warm rvrs and much cooler air
temps.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
The period will be dominated by an anomalously strong upper
level ridge over quebec and a resulting blocking pattern over
the northeastern u.S. Favoring dry conditions. With the core of
the upper level ridge well to the north, temperature anomalies
will remain modest. The most notable differences will be at
night due to mostly clear skies and ample radiational cooling,
which will lead to below normal lows. River valley fog is also
possible again Sunday night.

A weak upper level low will also become trapped underneath the
ridge over coastal new england. The low will progress
northeastward towards nova scotia Monday afternoon as it becomes
influenced by a building upper trough over the northern plains.

Current guidance maintains an offshore or parallel shore flow,
which along with limited surface support and meager moisture
should reinforce dry weather.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Upper level ridging will persist over northeastern canada and
into maine for the start of the week, maintaining dry
conditions. The ridge axis will gradually move east through the
period, moving over newfoundland by Wednesday. This will allow
the 500h trough over the northern plains to slowly build
eastward over the great lakes. Southerly flow ahead of the
trough will gradually become more amplified, which will advect
warmer air aloft and higher surface dew points into the area by
the middle of the week. A transition to above normal
temperatures, particularly at night, is expected Wednesday night
through the rest of the week. While there are differences with
how exactly the upper level pattern develops, an increase in
precipitation chances can also be expected later Wednesday
through Thursday night.

Invest 98l currently off the eastern coast of florida will move
north-northeastward around the building subtropical ridge near
bermuda and ahead of the aforementioned upper trough over the
great lakes. Currently, the ridge appears weak enough to allow
the system to curve near or just east of nova scotia by
Wednesday or Thursday, remaining well away from our forecast
area. However, some uncertainty remains; a couple outlier eps
members bring the system along the western edge of the guidance
envelope and into or close to new england. Progress of the
system should be monitored, particularly for those with marine
interests due to increasing wave potential by the middle of next
week. See the national hurricane center for the latest
information.

Aviation 23z Friday through Wednesday
Near term: generallyVFR clg vsbys xcpt MVFR clgs likely late
tngt erly Sat morn at kfve and possibly at kcar and kpqi.

Patchy MVFR ifr vsbys in fog are possible at low lying TAF sites
near rivers late Sat ngt and erly Sun morn.

Short term: mostly favorableVFR flight weather is expected with
mainly light winds and favorable vis CIGS through Tuesday.

Patchy river valley fog is possible Sunday night. Southerly
return flow is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. Increasing
dew points and onshore flow may cause lower CIGS vis near the
coast, including bhb.

Marine
Near term: no marine hdlns xpctd for this ptn of the fcst with
fcst WV hts ovr our waters about 80 to 90 percent of blended
ww3 nwps guidance WV hts, with nwps emphasized for near shore
waters. WV spectral groups will be at arnd 6 sec for short
fetch wind directions spcly in the vcnty of our immediate
coast and 10 to 12 sec for residual long pd swell from low pres
systems well out into the open atlc.

Short term: no issues expected through early next week. The
progress of a tropical system moving north-northeastward from
florida will need to be monitored for Tuesday night through
Thursday. The primary impact will be higher waves swell. The
magnitude will depend on the strength and track of the system,
which is still uncertain and could significantly alter the
current wave height forecast. A track taking the system well to
the southeast is most likely. See the long term and national
hurricane center products for additional details.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Foisy vjn
short term... Strauser
long term... Strauser
aviation... Foisy vjn strauser
marine... Foisy vjn strauser


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME19 mi72 minW 10 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds66°F50°F56%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPQI

Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W5CalmW8W9W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W12W11SW12
G17
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1 day agoS4SE7SE9S9S6S8S6SE4S4S6S5S7S6S8SW8W5SW9SW6S9S12S11SW10W5SW3
2 days agoS3CalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE54E7S12S11
G19
SW15
G18
S9S10S11S8S5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.