Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 7:13PM Thursday October 1, 2020 6:54 PM ADT (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:36PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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location: 46.62, -68.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 011954 AAC AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Caribou ME 354 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will slowly approach tonight into Friday. Low pressure will develop along the front and track through the area Friday afternoon into Friday night. High pressure will build over the region Saturday through Sunday. Another low is expected to pass well to the south of the region on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. A cold front in Quebec will slowly move across the area tonight with little precipitation and not a lot of cloud cover. Low clouds and some patchy fog are expected to develop ahead of the front in the Downeast region tonight . and may extend as far north as Houlton and as far west as Bangor. With the relatively moist and mild air mass pushing north from the coast, it's possible fog could be a bit more extensive if cloud cover is less than expected. Lows will range from the mid to upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s for Bangor and the Downeast region. A low pressure system will organize along the frontal boundary later tonight and track across the Gulf of Maine Friday afternoon while slowly deepening. Clouds will increase quickly Friday morning with most precipitation occurring in the afternoon. The greatest amounts will be in a corridor from the Moosehead Lake region towards Van Buren and northeast Aroostook County where a half inch to three quarters of an inch of badly needed rain will fall. The entire situation will be rather dynamic tomorrow as a shortwave rotating through a broad upper trough in the Great Lakes region interacts with the RRQ of a strong upper jet and a developing baroclinic zone over the region. The heavier precip corridor will correspond to tight thermal packing at H700 well to the north of the surface low. The least rain will fall towards the coast where less than a tenth of an inch is forecast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Friday night the low pressure will continue tracking northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance today showed drier air pushing across the area in the evening and ending precipitation quicker than previous runs. Saturday looks to be a dry day on northwest flow but expect plenty of clouds resulting in a partly sunny day. Cooler air in this flow will result in highs in the low to mid 50s across the north with low 60s from the Highlands southward. Saturday night into Sunday morning despite still having some clouds the winds will relax and send temperatures into the 30s across the north. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s from the Bangor region south to the Downeast coast. Sunday afternoon winds shift to a southerly direction as a large trough approaches the region. Temperatures will warm to near average with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Clouds will increase during the afternoon but the CWA will remain dry as any precipitation stays to the west in Quebec.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Sunday night a potent trough will be approaching the area with a decent 100+ kts jet stream overhead. At the same time moisture will be gathering as low pressure develops over the Mid Atlantic states. Monday this low pressure organizes and tracks East Northeast as the trough tries to go negatively tilted to capture the storm system. The majority of the operational guidance today keeps this storm system well offshore with only perhaps some rain showers along downeast coastal locations. In fact the 12z ECMWF came in much further east than the GFS did during the morning runs. We opted to keep chance pops along Downeast areas for the possibility of track changes given each model members showing other solutions. Outside of the coastal storm system impacts the trough itself will produce showers across the rest of the CWA so continued chance pops. Tuesday ridging will build in and turn the flow from the southwest and allow temperatures to climb to near average under mostly sunny skies. Wednesday into Thursday things get interesting based on today's model suite. A large trough approaches the area which will increase pops and by Wed night a strong shortwave comes down the flow. A strong cold front will push southeast with some model members suggesting a low pressure developing along it. No matter what results in this system we will likely see precipitation which we added chance pops for now.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. NEAR TERM: VFR conditions remain into the evening. The first station to drop to MVFR will be BHB . which will then drop to IFR cigs/vis late evening and remain IFR into midday Friday. The lower cigs are expected to reach up to BGR and HUL later tonight into early Friday morning. There is a slight chance of fog for CAR and PQI but will not include in the TAFs at this time as cloud cover is expected to reduce chances for radiational fog.

SHORT TERM: Fri night to Sat AM IFR becomes VFR. There is a slight chance of fog but will not be included at this time.

Sat to Mon AM will be VFR.

Mon afternoon to Tue AM MVFR to areas of IFR due to lower cigs/vis.

Tue PM improves to MVFR to VFR.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Longer period south swell continues into tonight and will extend the Small Craft Advisory as a result. Expect seas to be consistently less than the 5 ft criteria by midnight. Winds will diminish tonight into early Friday. Some is expected to materialize tonight and remain into Friday.

SHORT TERM: Fri night to Tue winds/waves will be below small craft criteria.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050- 051.

Near Term . MCW Short Term . Sinko Long Term . Sinko Aviation . MCW/Sinko Marine . MCW/Sinko


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME19 mi58 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F45°F44%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPQI

Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.