Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
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|Sunrise 8:06AM||Sunset 4:44PM||Monday December 9, 2019 11:16 AM AST (15:16 UTC)||Moonrise 3:32PM||Moonset 5:00AM||Illumination 95%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, MEHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KCAR 091457 AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 957 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019
SYNOPSIS. A warm front crosses the region today. Low pressure tracks northwest of the area tonight and Tuesday. A cold front crosses the area Tuesday evening with high pressure building in Thursday. The high pressure moves east of the area Friday. Low pressure tracks back over the area this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 950am Update . Biggest change was to update PoP/QPF along the Downeast coast as current focus of precip is located through central Maine. Main area of rain that will impact the coast early this afternoon, HRRR guidance suggests, is currently moving into the southern Gulf of Maine via radar. Otherwise, forecast on track. Rain/snow line is drifting northward, faintly visible on radar dual pol products. KMLT transitioned at about 830AM, with KHUL switching around 9AM.
Previous Discussion . Warmer, windy, wet weather on the way.
Early this morning, some light snow and rain is breaking out in the warm advection mainly from near Houlton southwest to Millinocket. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch. This light precipitation should taper off by late morning. Can't rule out a few pockets of light freezing rain in Northern Maine, but shouldn't be enough to warrant an advisory.
Warmer air continues to move in today and tonight ahead of an approaching system. All areas should be above freezing, even the far north, by about midday. Significant rain moves in from south to north in the afternoon, by which time temperatures will be warm enough for just rain.
Rain persists into the evening and could be heavy at times especially Downeast, being driven by a strong WSW mid level jet and SSW low level jet ahead of approaching shortwave trough. Don't think that rain will be enough for anything other than some ponding in low lying areas. This low level jet will bring high wind concerns tonight mainly for Downeast, where a high wind warning is in effect for Coastal Downeast, with a wind advisory Interior Downeast. This is a borderline advisory/warning for the coast, but kept the warning because of potential increased impact due to the saturated, generally unfrozen soil near the coast allowing trees to fall more easily.
Models are in good agreement on winds and rainfall today and tonight.
Coastal flooding not expected to be an issue tonight other than perhaps very localized minor splashover. Tides aren't very high, plus peak surge tonight doesn't coincide with high tide.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure will be located to the northwest of the CWA over Quebec Tuesday morning, with its trailing cold front moving into the North Woods between 15-18z. 700mb moisture shows a dry slot moving into the area around the same time, which will limit precipitation along and ahead of the front despite ample surface convergence.
Winds Tuesday will be decreasing along the coast as the low level jet moves off to the east; However, there is potential for a secondary increase via momentum transfer Tuesday afternoon behind the front across the North Woods and perhaps the Saint John Valley. While momentum transfer suggests gusts of 40-50 knots, snow cover and the heavily forested nature of the area may limit true mixing potential even with the cold air advection behind the front. Wind advisory criteria will likely be met along the higher mountain peaks of the North Woods, but confidence in widespread winds strong enough to meet advisory is too low with this update to issue a wind advisory for this secondary surge of winds.
Moisture and energy from a shortwave trough currently affecting the Desert Southwest will become strung out and at least partially phase with the upper level longwave trough by Tuesday night into Wednesday. An area of snow is expected to develop just behind the front from the Mid-Atlantic northeastward towards Maine. There is still plenty of model discrepancy, with the Euro just scraping the immediate coast with some light snow, while the NAM and GFS at 0z bring snow north to around Bangor and accumulating snow near advisory criteria closer to the coast. The current forecast package shows a solution roughly in between the two, with a coating to 2 inches for coastal forecast zones 29 and 30.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. By Wednesday night, a stronger shortwave trough will move across Ontario and Quebec and eventually clip Northern Maine. Guidance has trended north with the low pressure compared to last night and now tracks the system across the Gaspe Peninsula. Low PWAT values of 0.1 to 0.2 inches will result in low QPF and limited snowfall accumulation. Given the cold environment, snow ratios as high as 15 to 20:1 are possible, which may enable a light accumulation with the highest amounts due to upslope orographic enhancement. A cold front will sweep through early Thursday morning with an Arctic air mass and high pressure building in behind it for Thursday afternoon and evening. Highs across the north may struggle to get out of the single digits, with lows dropping well below zero. Lows were adjusted downward significantly across the north compared to the NBM, but only slightly to the south where confidence in the existence of any substantial snow pack is lower. High pressure will move off to the east by late night into early Friday morning. A warm front lifting northward across Ontario and Quebec may bring some mid and high level clouds late Thursday night and spoil the otherwise perfect radiational cooling scenario.
Temperatures will steadily rebound Friday into Saturday as weak upper level ridging and a warm front move through the area. Guidance is in general agreement that an upper level trough will move across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast Saturday into Sunday, increasing chances for precipitation. Given the warm air mass expected to be in place at the start of the event, confidence is higher that Downeast Maine will be mostly rain. More uncertainty exists to the north, where low track and the strength of an area of high pressure southeast of Newfoundland will play a key role in determining precipitation types. For now a rain/snow mix is mentioned across the north, but all precipitation types are possible given the uncertainty. Conditions should begin to improve by the end of the period Sunday night as the trough moves out of the area.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. NEAR TERM: Mix of MVFR and VFR early today. Borderline VFR/MVFR will continue through the morning, but late today rain moves in and ceilings fall. Expect IFR or worse late this afternoon though tonight with rain/low clouds. Breezy today and windy tonight. Also, low level wind shear will be a significant issue tonight.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday to Tuesday night . IFR to start the period due to patchy fog and low clouds with south to southwest winds shifting west-northwest behind a front during the afternoon. Conditions improve to VFR by the evening except along the coast, where an area of snow is expected to develop at BHB. There is still uncertainty regarding whether the snow makes it far enough north to impact BGR.
Wednesday to Wednesday night . Mainly VFR with localized MVFR in areas of light snow mainly across the north Wednesday night. Light to modestly breezy west winds are expected.
Thursday to Thursday night . VFR conditions are expected with gusty west-northwest winds during the day. Winds will rapidly diminish overnight.
Friday to Friday night . VFR conditions will continue with mid level clouds building in and winds turning south to southwest.
MARINE. NEAR TERM: Converted storm watch to a warning for tonight, with high confidence in strong southerly winds. Seas building to around 17 feet tonight.
SHORT TERM: After the Storm Warning expires early Tuesday morning, seas will remain over 10 feet with wind gusts near Gale force. Winds will decrease and seas soon thereafter later Tuesday into Tuesday night, with small craft advisory criteria likely being met through at least Wednesday night. Winds and seas drop below SCA Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds overhead. The next storm system will approach this weekend, with potential for at least gale conditions.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ011-015>017-032. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ029-030. MARINE . Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
Near Term . Cornwell/Foisy Short Term . Strauser Long Term . Strauser Aviation . Cornwell/Foisy/Strauser Marine . Cornwell/Foisy/Strauser
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|Presque Isle, ME||19 mi||20 min||S 9||10.00 mi||Overcast||32°F||27°F||82%||1024 hPa|
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Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (10,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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