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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 240 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2023
combined seas 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 7 feet tonight. Bar conditions light to moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 1130 am this morning and midnight tonight.

PZZ100 240 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak surface trough and associated front will move onshore this morning. A surface low is expected to rapidly deepen to under 970 millibars around 600 nautical miles offshore late Sunday morning. An associated vigorous front will move onshore early Monday. A secondary vigorous front is expected to cross the waters Tuesday night.

FXUS66 KPQR 231030 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 329 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
The first signs of a significant change toward fall weather have arrived, just in time for the first full day of astronomical autumn. The first in a potentially long series of frontal systems will brush SW Washington and NW Oregon today with generally light rain. A stronger system will begin to spread rain into the region Sunday, along with gusty winds and building seas along the coast. The frontal zone will stall nearby, with waves of low pressure bringing occasional rain and gusty winds through Tuesday morning. The front then moves east of the Cascades, with cool and unsettled weather to follow for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION
Today through next Friday...GOES-West infrared imagery shows plenty of mid to high level clouds streaming into WA/OR early this morning. These clouds are the first signs of the anticipated shift to early fall weather, as an unseasonably strong early season Pacific jet stream extends across the north Pacific and aims toward the Pac NW. The jet stream is largely zonal between 45N-55N, with a maximum of 160+ kt in its core near the western Aleutians.

Shortwave energy at the leading edge of the jet stream began dribbling into the region Friday evening, but the low levels are starting out dry. This is making it difficult for any precipitation to reach the ground initially, but the air mass will gradually moisten over the next 12-24 hours. By midday today, HRRR mean total precipitable water values are near 1 inch, allowing for increasing showers as additional shortwave energy arrives this afternoon and evening.

The crux of the jet energy noses into the NE Pacific tonight and Sunday, causing rapid cyclogenesis near 45N/140W. The 00z GFS shows the low center strengthening from around 1000 mb at 23/21z to 966 mb at 24/21z. This low will push an occluding frontal system toward the coast Sunday night, and this front will likely have additional waves of low pressure developing along it. With southerly 850 mb winds on the order of 55-65 kt, strong winds will be in play along the coast as the front moves onshore. However MSLP gradients are very easterly, which would likely limit the strongest winds to beaches and headlands. Latest NBM/HRRR probabilistic guidance shows very low chances (generally less than 20%) of winds exceeding 55 mph even for the beaches and headlands, so we will refrain from issuing any High Wind Watches for the time being. Inland areas will largely miss out on the wind Sun/Mon due to the easterly MSLP gradients. Winds will largely be limited to exposed ridges, but waves of low pressure may briefly mix gusts of 20-30 mph down to lower elevations.

In addition to the wind, the forecast area can expect rain to increase Sunday, with occasional rain continuing through Monday. A moderate to low-end strong atmospheric river (AR; based on CW3E IVT guidance) is still slated to impact the PacNW Sunday night through Monday. Models show the jet streak peaking around 130-150 kts pushing through the region during this time period along with a significant amount of upper level moisture.
Ensembles indicate some uncertainty on when the exact period of heaviest rain will be, but they are zeroing in on sometime Monday morning through Monday evening as the surface front moves through with rain showers continuing into Tuesday. For the 24 hour period from 11pm Sunday - 11pm Monday, NBM v4.1 indicates a 70-95% probability of 1 inch of rain along the coast and 60-80% east of the Coast Range. For the 48 hour period from 5am Monday to 5am Wednesday, NBM v4.1 indicates a 50-90% probability of 2 inch of rain along the coast, highest probabilities north of Newport, and the S Washington Cascades, and a 20-40% elsewhere.
Deterministic precipitation forecast indicates 1-3 inches along the coast, Coast Range, and S Washington Cascades and 0.75-1.5 inch elsewhere for Sunday night through Monday night.

The slightly lower probability of 2 inches in 48 hours for inland locations is in part due to a timing shift in the next shortwave in the ensembles. Previous runs were extremely uncertain on whether this wave would start Tuesday night or Wednesday. Uncertainty still remains on the exact timing, but latest guidance has pushed it closer to Wednesday morning.
Ensembles continue to indicate this third wave will be less intense than the Monday AR, but periods widespread moderate to heavy rain are still expected. For the 24 hour period from 5pm Tuesday - 5pm Wednesday, NBM v4.1 indicates a 60-90% probability of 1 inch of rain along the coast and Cascades north of Lane County and 20-50% east of the Coast Range. Much more uncertainty in the ensembles beyond Wednesday, but the general consensus is showery and cooler pattern continuing through at least the end of next week. Weagle/HEC

AVIATION
12Z TAFs: MVFR stratus increasing on the coast ahead of a weakening front. But the two TAF sites remain VFR as of 10Z.
HRRR guidance seems a bit overdone, but does show the mores spotty nature of the MVFR clouds at the coast. Expect occasional MVFR through the day at the coast with rain increasing this morning then tapering off tonight. Inland ares expected to remain VFR with cigs 4000-6000 ft developing. May see lower cigs with the rain however, HRRR indicating a 5 to 15 percent chance for 3000 ft cigs around terminals late this afternoon and evening. Will also see increasing mountain obscuration as clouds and rain develops this afternoon.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the next 24-hrs. There around a a 10% chance of MVFR CIGs around the Terminal later this afternoon and evening. /mh -Muessle

MARINE
A cold front associated with a small disturbance spinning out of a low in the northeast Pacific will swing through the waters today. This is expected to bring winds gusting around 20-25 kt. The front moves ashore this afternoon. Model guidance suggests strongest winds will be north of Lincoln City in the morning and into the early afternoon. Small Craft Advisory continues for areas north of Cape Foulweather out to 60nm through this afternoon as guidance is showing weaker winds now.

This will be followed by a strong trans Pacific jet stream that will dip south towards the Pacific NW, deepening the upper level trough in the Gulf of Alaska toward the northeast Pacific. It will form into a deep cutoff low Sunday into Monday bringing the first Gale headline of the season. High confidence (>80% chance)
the low will produce Gale Force wind gusts starting Sunday afternoon with the potential for sustained Gales Sunday night into Monday.

Moderate confidence that there will be a 6-9 hour period Sunday night which could produce Storm Force wind gusts between 40-60nm.
Model guidance seems to be picking up on multiple disturbances that will move northeast along the cold front which will tighten gradients across this area. A Storm Watch continues Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. Gales will continue across the waters into Monday afternoon and possibly the evening. Waters between the coast and 20 NM stand a 30-60% chance for Gale Force winds during this time and have therefore issued a Gale Watch.

A dynamic wind sea will develop during this time across the waters bringing seas into the mid, possibly upper teens with a dominant period around 10 seconds. The dynamic fetch setup in the SW quadrant of the low will generate seas into the upper 20s around 45N/135W. This will generate a westerly swell that will move into the waters Monday night which will maintain seas in the mid teens through late Tuesday morning. GEFSwave ensemble shows about a 60-70% probability of seas exceeding 20 ft primarily beyond 20 NM, with a 30-50% probability in the nearshore zones for the Monday/Monday night timeframe.

The low will occlude offshore and a secondary weakening cold front will move across the waters late Monday which likely to bring gales across much of the water. Winds and seas will continue to diminish into the middle of the week. /mh -BMuhlestein

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR out 10 NM. Waters from Cape Falcon to Cape Foulweather OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

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Bay Center
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Sat -- 02:21 AM PDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:53 AM PDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:13 PM PDT     4.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:37 PM PDT     8.03 feet High Tide
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Bay Center, Palix River, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Grays Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 02:26 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:08 AM PDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:51 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:33 AM PDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:07 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:35 PM PDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:49 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
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Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current, knots

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