Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay Center, WA

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Friday night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows drier air aloft moving overhead as a weak upper level trough moves out of the region, while upper level ridging amplifies over the northeast Pacific.
This ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region and into western Canada on Thursday. Surface high pressure builds into western Montana while a surface thermal trough develops along the Oregon coast Thursday morning. This will lead to a period of offshore flow with east winds through the Columbia River Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades.
Warming aloft coupled with dry, downsloping winds will bring unseasonably warm temperatures across the area Thursday and Friday.

Model guidance remains in good agreement for widespread high temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s both days, including at the coast on Thursday. A few locations may see temperatures reach 80 degrees, with around a 10-60% chance along the I-5 corridor, highest chances south and east. Although high temperatures are expected to be around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October, most locations are not expected to break any records (which were mainly set back in 2022). Could be our last "hot" day of the year, as we typically see temperatures drop off during the second half of October.

East winds will also become gusty by Thursday morning, especially through the Columbia River Gorge into the eastern Portland Metro area. Model guidance suggests surface pressure gradients increase to around -5 to -6 mb which could produce wind gusts up to 25-35 mph, except up to 45-50 mph on wind-prone exposed ridgetops. Pressure gradients likely begin to slacken later Friday morning with winds easing by the afternoon. Onshore flow returns by late Friday night ahead of an incoming cold front. /DH


LONG TERM
Saturday through Tuesday Night...There is high confidence among ensemble guidance for cooler temperatures this weekend as a weak cold front swings through the region and brings chances for light rain. Light rain begins at the coast Friday night, mainly from Lincoln City northward. Rain chances spread inland Saturday morning, peaking around 40-60% across the south Washington and north Oregon Cascades, 25-50% along the I-5 corridor from Salem northward, and 10-20% south of Salem.
Rain amounts, if any, will be light. Conditions quickly dry out Saturday night to Sunday as transient shortwave ridge passes through. Expect seasonable temperatures in the 60s across interior valleys and 50s along the coast and Cascades.

Monday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement that an upper-level trough from the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest, bringing increased chances for widespread rain between early Monday morning and Tuesday morning.
This system has the potential, albeit low, to bring a more meaningful amount of rain considering how dry conditions have been thus far this October. The NBM currently shows a 20-35% chance for at least 0.25 inches of rain between 5 AM PDT Monday and 5 AM PDT Wednesday. Probs continue to come down as there are an increasing number of ensemble members showing a solution where the upper-level trough remains farther offshore or progresses farther south into California, limiting the amount of rain in our area. Chances for impactful wind gusts over 40 mph are currently less than 10% with this system. DH/10/23

AVIATION
Through 00Z Friday...Along the north OR and south WA coast, including KAST, CIGs will fluctuate between high-end MVFR (2-3 kft) and VFR through around 00Z Thursday as a weak front brushes SW WA. Otherwise, VFR conditions across the airspace with mostly clear skies. Northerly to northwesterly winds around 5-10 kt for most terminals. Strengthening offshore pressure gradients between KTTD and KDLS will result in increasing easterly winds after 06Z Thu along the west slopes of the Cascades and Coast Range into the coast. East winds will be strongest through the Columbia River Gorge with gusts up to 35 kts. These stronger east winds reach KTTD around 12Z Thursday where winds could gust up to 30 kts, followed by KPDX around 18Z Thursday with gusts up to 25 kt. Otherwise, winds remain north 5-10 kts in the Willamette Valley and easterly at 5-10 kt along the coast.

Between 11Z and 18Z Thursday, there is a 5-10% chance for IFR/LIFr conditions to develop within the Willamette Valley.
Confidence is low given the relatively dry and windy conditions at this time. Any lowered flight conditions should improve to VFR around 17Z-19Z Thursday.

LLWS will possibly impact KPDX and locations eastward starting around 11Z Thursday through 00Z Friday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with mostly clear skies through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 4-6 kt. LLWS will possibly impact KPDX and locations eastward starting around 11Z Thursday through 00Z Friday. /42-03

MARINE
Benign marine conditions continue. Southerly winds are turning northerly to northeasterly this afternoon, continuing through the end of the week. Winds turn southerly again over the weekend and into early next week as a series of fronts pass through the waters. Seas remain around 4-7 ft this week with periods of 12-14 seconds.

A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Sunday and 10-12 ft early next week. There is a 10-20% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances north of Cape Falcon and beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat this week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -10/03

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.