Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newberry, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 352 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

The coldest period of this Arctic stretch is still ahead tonight through tomorrow. Coldest overnight lows tonight will be over the interior west where temperatures will sink to -25F. Elsewhere, the remainder of Upper Michigan will bottom out in the -10F to -20F range. These temperatures coupled with the continued strong WNW winds will push wind chills into the -40F to -45F range. Extreme Cold Warnings are already in effect across Gogebic and Iron Counties where current temperatures are already in the -5 to -10F range. Most of the remaining counties across the U.P. will also fall under Extreme Cold Warnings through the course of the evening with all of the U.P. except Luce and Keweenaw Counties under an Extreme Cold Warning by Tuesday morning. If you must go outside tonight, dress warmly in layers and make sure to have a winter survival kit in your vehicle in case of emergency. Limit exposure outside for you, your family, and your pets!

Also of note, ongoing Winter Weather Advisories remain in place for Ontonagon, northern Houghton, Alger, northern Schoolcraft, and Luce Counties through the short term period. Lake effect snow showers will back to the west tonight with additional snow totals in the 3 to 5 inch range across advisory areas and localized totals up to 8 to 10 inches over the northeast counties. The M-28 corridor near the Lake Superior shoreline will remain especially treacherous due to whiteout conditions at times in blowing, powdery snow (Munising eastward to Pine Lake and as far south as Seney).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

The lake effect snow begins lifting from the U.P. Tuesday morning as high pressure ridging digs from the Central U.S. into the Ohio River Valley. Very cold wind chills down to -30F in the east and -45F in the west look to greet us Tuesday morning. While we will see improvement throughout the daytime, with the core of the coldest air only just leaving the area around that time, expect highs to remain subzero in the central and west and for wind chills to still remain in the mid teens to mid 20s below zero across the area. Thus, it will still not be safe to spend too much time outside on Tuesday. As the winds become more southwesterly throughout the day, expect the lake effect snowfall to lift off of the Keweenaw and east near Grand Marais throughout the daylight hours, with the U.P. becoming snowfall-free by evening. While the snowfall rates are expected to lighten throughout the day, we could still see 1 to 4 inches fall north of Houghton and around the Grand Marais area; be careful in the snow bands as localized whiteouts could still occur behind vehicles and in the patches of blowing snow given the fine, powdery nature of the snow.

A pattern shift towards more normal temperatures begins Tuesday night as warm air advection in conjunction with the Clipper low digging into our region raises temperatures throughout the overnight hours into Wednesday. Because of this, expect the coldest temperatures and wind chills to occur this evening and not long after sunset; model guidance begins the warming across our area by midnight or earlier Tuesday night. Therefore, while we can still expect lows Tuesday night to be in the negative single digits to negative teens and wind chills in the negative 20s, expect conditions to gradually improve throughout the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Thus, while we may have Cold Weather Advisories out across the area for Tuesday afternoon and evening, we may see them drop off by early Wednesday morning as we return to near normal temperatures by sunrise. In addition to bringing warmer weather, the Clipper is looking to bring some light snowfall across the area too.
Even though the system down in the Gulf will starve the Clipper of moisture, there will be enough moisture left in it to produce up to a half inch of possibly fluffy snow across the area (the atmosphere looks like it may possibly warm just enough to have the mid and lower levels squeak back into the cold-end of the DGZ); we may see up to a couple of inches over the far east (eastern Schoolcraft and Luce County) late Tuesday night into Wednesday due to some lake enhanced snowfall off of Lake Michigan. As the Clipper moves through Lake Superior Wednesday and the eastern half of the U.P. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, expect light lake effect snow to redevelop behind it over the north-northwest wind snow belts, with the lake effect snow continuing through at least Thursday. While the Canadian suite of guidance is hinting at a mesolow over the eastern lake, model uncertainty on its placement let alone whether it occurs or not is still high at this time. Should the mesolow form however, we could see some heavy snowfall rates in the eastern half of the U.P. Thursday.

Ridging looks to return by Thursday night as another high pressure continues to dig from the central CONUS into the Southeastern U.S.
and the troughing wrought by the Clipper lifts towards the Canadian Maritimes. As we head into this weekend into early next week, expect a continuation of the fairly active pattern, with Clipper lows followed by ridging. Overall, temperatures during the back half of this week through this weekend into early next week look to be around normal; while temperatures aren't expected to get above freezing throughout the period, highs and lows may become above normal at times, particularly in the warm air advection regimes ahead of the Clipper lows. While light snowfall will still be expected in association with the Clipper lows and the lake effect behind them, nothing significant is really projected for snowfall through the rest of this week into early next week. All in all, by the middle of this week expect the return to near normal weather for this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1133 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Lake effect snow showers/clouds will continue to impact CMX through most of the TAF period. CMX will have heavier lake effect snow showers that will create IFR/LIFR conditions until late Tue afternoon when MVFR conditions occur. IWD, on the other hand will be VFR, but lake effect snow and clouds will not be far away to the north. SAW will be VFR through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Strengthening northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots are expected across the lake this evening through tonight as the coldest air of the season passes through the region. As this happens, expect heavy freezing spray to continue across Lake Superior through Tuesday and Tuesday night as the northwest winds turn to the west and then southwest ahead of an approaching Clipper low. While widespread gales aren't expected, some areas of localized wind convergence could produce gale force gusts up to 34 knots at times between this evening and Tuesday night, with the European ensemble showing chances between 50 and 90+%. As an approaching Clipper low moves into the lake Wednesday and moves through the eastern U.P. Wednesday night/Thursday morning, expect the winds to switch to the north- northwest at 20 to possibly 30 knots across the lake Wednesday night before settling to around 20 knots by Thursday. Another Clipper low moving through late this week looks to bring more southwest to westerly winds of 20 to 30 knots back across Lake Superior, with the stronger winds continuing through most of next weekend; there is up to a 40% chance for gale force gusts up to 34 knots during this time period according to the latest run of the European ensemble.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ001-007.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ001.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ002-006- 007-085.

Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday for MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084.

Cold Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ003.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ003.

Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ003.

Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ006-014- 085.

Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ006-014-085.

Lake Superior...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for LSZ162-240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.