Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newberry, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Vertically stacked low is currently positioned over Lake Huron per RAP analysis and GOES water vapor imagery. A few waves are noted rotating around the circulation, which has supported mostly cloudy skies over the region under northwesterly flow. Just upstream, a weak frontal boundary is noted with post frontal temperatures ~10 degrees colder than the 50s observed across Upper Michigan. Spotty showers have also been observed this morning, mainly across the east, but activity has waned through the day.

For the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, the upstream cold front will push east, helping to kick the surface low east as well. Pressure rises in the wake of the front will result in increasing northeast winds, particularly in the Keweenaw and by Lake Superior. Suspect ~30mph winds will be common in these spots, with upwards of 35-40mph being possible north of Houghton. Elsewhere, expecting near 20 mph winds. The occasional shower or pocket of drizzle is also expected given the continued moist cyclonic and upslope flow into and over the northern half of the forecast area.
Some additional heating may also occur over the interior portions of central and east, but overall temperatures look to have peaked today and should begin to slowly fall west to east.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Upper level low over southern Ontario tonight will continue to exit east while mid-level ridging shifts east through middle America. At the surface, trough/frontal feature pressing into our forecast area will shift east Sunday morning as it's parent surface low pushes into New England and surface ridging presses. This will work to diminish shower activity over the region Sunday in the north as the effects of the ridging over the region become more dominant. Some snow may mix in with precip before it ends over the higher terrain, but accumulations are not expected. Dry conditions look to hold fast over the area into at least the middle of next week, at which point a shortwave dropping southeast to the east of Lake Superior Monday night stalls, then begins to slowly phase with an upper level low pressing eastward through the mid-Mississippi River Valley. By Wednesday night/Thursday, the resultant upper level low may provide enough synoptic support for another round of rain. Confidence continues to be low though given the uncertainty in where these features and their surface reflections line up.

Overall, temperatures will be below normal for this time of year.
Highs Sunday will include mid to upper 30s in the north-central, near Lake Superior, and Copper Country and 40s elsewhere. We should warm afterwards back into 40s by Lake Superior and 50s to low 60s for most of the coming week. For overnight lows, 30s will mostly rule save for high 20s Sunday night and possible Monday night across the interior west half. This may yield some frost. The effect of the dry air, temperatures, and daytime mixing next Monday-Wednesday should be enough to support afternoon RH values falling into the 30s and 20s, potentially into the teens, in interior locations while gusty northeasterly winds near 20 mph mix down to the surface.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 809 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

MVFR/IFR conditions are expected through most of the 0Z TAF period as abundant low level moisture under cool N flow lingers in the wake of the low pressure system. A break from the dz/-shra is expected tonight as the low continues to depart to the E. A brief period of LIFR is anticipated Sun morning with some additional dz/-shra. With high pressure moving to the N, drying and improvement is expected late on Sun. Otherwise, N gusts up to 20-25 kts at CMX/SAW gradually relax overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Surface low spinning over the area with a cold front pressing in from the west will yield mostly northwest winds this afternoon and evening, increasing to near or to low end gale strength. Overall, gale potential looks to be confined between the east end of Isle Royale to the tip of the Keweenaw, but some gales could be observed elsewhere. Confidence in this is low (<25% chance), so the inherited gale warning was left as is. After the front passes tonight, northerly winds will gradually fall into Sunday, reaching <20kts lake-wide by Sunday afternoon. As a high shifts to near Hudson Bay afterwards, northeast winds will predominately prevail early next week. Increases in pressure gradient forces thanks to the high to the northeast and a low spinning to the south, coupled with daytime heating in Minnesota/Wisconsin will result in stronger northeast winds developing across the west half, pressing down into the Duluth Harbor Monday and Tuesday. Most deterministic guidance peaks winds near 30kts, but the latest EC ensemble suggests 10-60% for gales (increasing east to west down to the harbor) Monday and to near 80% for Tuesday. Similar probabilities are noted in the NBM. The stronger winds may yield seas building to 8ft or higher.

As a low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes tries to phase with the lower levels of the low moving from the Central Plains to the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday, expect northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots to continue over the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday, before the winds turn more northerly later Wednesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.