Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Willapa, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 9:15PM Monday June 21, 2021 12:31 AM PDT (07:31 UTC) Moonrise 4:51PMMoonset 2:02AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 832 pm pdt Sun jun 20 2021 combined seas 4 to 6 ft. Bar conditions generally light. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 2 am early Monday morning and 230 pm Monday afternoon.
PZZ100 832 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 20 2021
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..High pressure over the northeastern pacific will remain in place with lower pressure inland resulting in generally northerly winds over most waters. West winds through strait of juan de fuca with strongest winds occuring each afternoon and evening. Offshore winds possible late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willapa, WA
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location: 46.68, -123.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 210354 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 853 PM PDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Updated aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues to build over the region through Monday, with high temperatures likely to peak in the middle 90s or better Monday afternoon in the northern Willamette and Columbia River Gorge where a Heat Advisory is in effect. We expect to see a few cumulus buildups and perhaps a thunderstorm or two over the Cascades south of Santiam Pass late Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Tuesday and Wednesday will provide a brief break from the heat before temperatures climb ahead of another ridge through the first half of the weekend.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Wednesday . Fair, and generally warmer than average, conditions prevail area-wide as an upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build into the region through tonight. The HRRR, UWWRF, GFS, and Euro suggest the thermally induced surface trough will build north/north-westward across the Willamette Valley this evening to foster a perpetuation of onshore flow. However, subsidence under the ridge will continue to promote clear skies favoring intense surface heating in the Willamette Valley, where temperatures are likely to peak at/near 90 at most locations. In stark contrast, the aforementioned onshore flow will ensure coastal locations remain substantially cooler - with highs generally from the mid 70s north to the low 60s south.

With 500mb heights (a marker of vertically integrated column temperature, since temperature and volume of an ideal gas are directly related via the equation of state) lowering as the ridge retreats southeastward throughout the day tomorrow, the area is not as favored for hot temperatures as it otherwise would be. In addition, the aforementioned deterministic models have the thermal trough sliding east of the Cascade crest by peak diurnal heating tomorrow afternoon, which will favor even stronger onshore flow and a possible marine surge through Coast Range terrain gaps. Still, with morning low temperatures less cool than today and the ridge directly overhead in the beginning of the day, it is likely that temperatures in the northern Willamette Valley will still reach the mid (to perhaps upper) 90s. Along the Columbia River Gorge, temperatures will likely be a few degrees warmer with some locations likely making a run for 100. As a result, we have left the Heat Advisory in effect for the Portland and Vancouver Metro area as well as the Columbia River Gorge and Hood River Valley.

The ridge moves a bit further east/southeast and a weak, closed trough moves into the area from the southwest on Tuesday. South-southeasterly mid to upper level flow ahead of the incoming trough would certainly increase potential for thundery weather along the central Oregon Cascade crest on Monday and in a more expansive area encompassing the foothills of Lane and Linn counties Tuesday, but this is only one necessary ingredient for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from eastern Lane Co. Monday evening and again Tuesday afternoon suggest upwards of 1000 J/kg of largely elevated MLCAPE is possible during peak heating, but the cap may be difficult to overcome given the relatively high LFC. Still, orographically enhanced uplift may be sufficient for convective initiation, after which even nocturnal thunderstorms seem plausible. The highest chance for thunderstorms appears to be over the central Oregon Cascades and adjacent foothills Tuesday evening, when SREF and NBM guidance have 25+% thunder probabilities over that area.

Aside from the thunder potential, there is not much to write home about during the short-term period post Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday, though still warmer than normal for this time of year, will be the coolest days of the coming week with highs generally in the low to mid 80s in the Willamette Valley and 60s along the coast. /Bumgardner LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . The upper trough slides south and yet another ridge builds into the area through Saturday, with substantial height rises depicted in virtually all of the long range cluster solutions. The ECMWF still seems to have the highest proportion of warm members, with 22/50 (44%) of them in the warmest solution that depicts 5880 decameter (dam) 500mb heights over the entire CWA. By Sunday, however, discrepancies become increasingly apparent in the models' output concerning the interaction between an incoming trough and the aforementioned ridge. As a result, Saturday and Sunday's highs are still very uncertain. Saturday still looks to be the warmest day, but just how warm/hot is difficult to say at this time. NBM gives an IQR of probable high temperatures of 97-108 at PDX (down from 100-109 from the last iteration) and 90-101 at EUG (down from 93-104) on Saturday, so it is likely to be quite warm, but again the range of possibilities is vast. /Bumgardner

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AVIATION. High pressure aloft under northerly low-level flow continues to result in VFR conditions across much of the forecast area, and should continue to do so through Monday evening. The main exception to this is along the Oregon Coast, where coastal low clouds and fog continue to result in IFR conditions south of roughly Seaside/K56S. Flow will turn increasingly offshore in the boundary layer overnight, potentially clearing the coast of stratus north of KONP. Therefore KAST should remain VFR overnight while KONP remains in IFR, though there is a small chance KONP will clear later tonight as well. While some 00z HREF members pull the low clouds out of KONP this evening, we have decided to leave it in for now as several members keep it in and the airport's elevated location along the coast may promote more persistent cloud development in N-NW flow. Additionally, low- level flow does not look to turn as offshore at KONP as it does for points further north. In fact, some 00z HREF members and the 00z NAM hint at enough onshore flow south of KONP to bring a southwesterly marine push and perhaps even some clouds into KEUG Mon morning. We feel the marine layer is too shallow to make it into the Willamette Valley, so we left the forecast clear for KEUG.

Additionally, smoke from the S-503 fire near Warm Springs has moved west of the Cascades, but should remain mostly aloft except near the Sandy River and Mt Hood. Impacts will mainly be to slant range visibility through Monday, and surface vsbys should generally remain better than 6SM for our TAF sites.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR conditions through tonight, with light N-NW flow near the surface. There may be a little LLWS on KPDX approaches as winds will be more easterly at 15-20 kt above FL010-015. Smoke from the S-503 fire near Warm Springs will likely drift over the PDX metro at times through Monday, but primary impacts will be to slant range vsby with sfc vsby likely to remain at or above 6SM. Weagle

MARINE. No changes. Previous discussion follows. High pressure over the northeast Pacific and thermally induced lower pressure over western Oregon and northern California will result in the current gusty northerly winds across the waters to linger into tonight. As thermally induced lower pressure shifts east of the Cascades late tonight into Monday, expect northerly wind gusts to gradually decrease from east to west and drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria of 21 kt during this time except perhaps beyond 40-50 NM. In the meantime, seas will be a mix of a fresh swell and wind waves that will result in particularly steep and hazardous seas, especially across the waters off the central coast of Oregon. Expect significant wave heights of 5 to 7 ft with dominant periods fluctuating between 5 and 9 seconds during this time.

Surface high pressure over the northeast Pacific will gradually shift closer to the waters towards the middle of the upcoming week. This will result in winds and seas decreasing across the waters through roughly Thursday. High pressure will then strengthen and shift farther offshore while thermally induced lower pressure returns to the California/Oregon coastline next weekend. This will likely bring another period of gusty northerly winds and steeper wind dominated seas next weekend. /Neuman

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM PDT Monday for Central Columbia River Gorge-Greater Portland Metro Area-Upper Hood River Valley-Western Columbia River Gorge.

WA . Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM PDT Monday for Central Columbia River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-Western Columbia River Gorge.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 16 mi62 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 62°F 58°F1012.6 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 28 mi56 min N 11 G 12 57°F 53°F1013 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 33 mi36 min 56°F6 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi62 min WSW 1 G 2.9 63°F 66°F1012.2 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 40 mi36 min 58°F4 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA26 mi39 minS 310.00 miFair62°F57°F84%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW7W8W11W9W12W10NW11W5N6SW6W7CalmS3S3
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Tide / Current Tables for Willapa City, Willapa River, Washington
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Willapa City
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:01 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:23 AM PDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:12 PM PDT     7.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 PM PDT     1.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:50 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:56 PM PDT     10.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.585.73.31-0.5-0.40.82.44.15.777.67.264.42.91.82.13.65.57.4910.1

Tide / Current Tables for South Bend, Washington
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South Bend
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:02 AM PDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:32 AM PDT     8.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM PDT     2.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:16 PM PDT     11.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.67.65.32.910.10.82.345.77.38.28.27.464.53.22.63.45.27.29.110.611.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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