Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Willapa, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:31PM Saturday November 28, 2020 8:50 PM PST (04:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:53PMMoonset 5:45AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 839 pm pst Sat nov 28 2020 combined seas 6 to 8 ft through Sunday afternoon, increasing to between 10 and 14 ft through Monday morning. Bar conditions moderate through Sunday afternoon, becoming rough through Monday morning. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 330 am and 4 pm Sunday. The afternoon ebb will be strong.
PZZ100 839 Pm Pst Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A vigorous frontal system will move through the area Sunday night and Monday morning followed by a good shot of onshore flow later Monday. Weak high pressure will move over the area Monday night then offshore flow will develop Tuesday and continue into Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willapa, WA
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location: 46.68, -123.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 290414 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 813 PM PST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build into the region as a frontal zone decays over NW Oregon. This should result in mainly clear skies for the high terrain by Sunday morning, while valleys generally remain under low clouds or fog. The next front will spread rain across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday, along with a brief period of gusty south winds. High pressure should then prevail for the remainder of the week, with offshore flow likely resulting in a several-day stretch of dry weather.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Tuesday . No changes from 323 pm discussion . Damp, dreary November weather prevails with persistent low clouds over much of the forecast area as a stalled frontal boundary decays over NW Oregon. There have been a couple notable exceptions: the front stalled north of Lane County, so much of Lane County Eugene eastward has seen a decent amount of sunshine today. Coastal areas north of Tillamook remain north of the front, so they have seen some sunshine today as well. In between these two sunnier areas, just enough low-level frontal lift occurred to cause persistent drizzle through the morning hours, which appears to have finally tapered off several hours after many models (and the NBM) suggested it would Rainfall amounts have been light. generally a few hundredths of an inch, with as much as a quarter inch in the high terrain.

Part of the reason low clouds have been so persistent despite the weakening front is that mixing is poor due to light low-level flow and the low sun angle this time of year. Models insist the low clouds associated with the front will clear by - or during - this evening, but am somewhat skeptical of this. More likely is that strengthening subsidence will low clouds eventually settle into some sort of mix of valley fog/low clouds while the higher elevations gradually clear. Either way, Sunday will probably start off with less general cloud cover, but areas of valley fog that may take much of the day to clear. As such, we continue to forecast cooler temps than most guidance across the Willamette Valley Sunday. The Portland metro area may end up an exception, as increasing east winds through the Gorge should clear out the stratus earlier. Coastal areas will probably see plenty of sunshine until higher clouds increase ahead of our next frontal system.

There continues to be good agreement a subtle shortwave trough currently located over the Aleutian Islands will amplify and move eastward across the Pacific Northwest Sunday night into Monday. A strong low level front coupled with good mid level lift should provide a solid shot of valley rain and mountain snow late Sunday night into Monday morning. QPF and snow amounts will be primarily limited by the fast moving nature of the storm system, but low end Winter Weather Advisory criteria may be met above 3000-4000 feet in the Cascades Sunday night into Monday. South winds associated with the cold front will be robust, but with 850-900 mb S-SW winds in the 50-60 kt range per the 18z NAM/GFS, we are holding our forecast just shy of High Wind Warning criteria with gusts 40-50 mph along the coast.

Post-frontal showers will taper off later Monday afternoon and evening as strong high pressure builds in from the Pacific. Expect more valley fog as this occurs Mon night/Tue morning. Increasing offshore gradients should then cause offshore flow to ramp up Tuesday, probably making it much more difficult for fog to form Tuesday night. Weagle/Neuman

LONG TERM. Tuesday night through Friday . No changes from 323 pm discussion . Increasing large scale offshore flow during this time will bring cool and much drier air into the region. This should limit and/or completely eliminate valley fog and air stagnation concerns initially. However, east winds should become more gap driven during the second half of the week and more confined to the mouth of the Gorge. This should result in dewpoints gradually climbing mid to late week along the lower Columbia Valley and across much of the Willamette Valley away from the Portland metro. This should result in a gradual expansion of valley fog and low clouds late next week. More prolonged air stagnation issues will also likely result across southwest Washington and northwest Oregon away from the Portland and Vancouver metro.

Expect high temperatures to not deviate too much from seasonal averages next week except possibly late in the week when fog and low clouds take hold in areas not affected by the Gorge winds. Overnight low temperatures should end up several degrees below average initially due to the clear skies and infiltration of drier air into the region, but not expecting anything that's unusual when going into a dry offshore flow pattern during this time of the year. /Neuman

AVIATION. Interior TAF sites are likely to see a continuation of widespread IFR to low end MVFR conditions, mostly due to ceilings from KCVO northward. The south end of the Willamette Valley can expect to see IFR conditions develop in fog through 06Z. Poor flight conditions are likely to continue through most of the day Sunday with widespread IFR and low end MVFR conditions persisting. The exception will be areas near the Gorge, where light offshore winds are expected to allow VFR flight conditions to expand to include the vicinity of KPDX by 18Z-20Z. Along the coast conditions expected to remain more hit or miss with low clouds and fog, with conditions continuing to vary from VFR all the way down to local areas with IFR conditions. The general trend however for areas along the coast should be for improving conditions due to a light offshore flow.

For detailed regional Pac NW weather information, go online to: http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Expect predominantly IFR or low end MVFR conditions due primarily to low ceilings to persist through 18Z-20Z. Eastern approaches may see improvement to VFR conditions as a light east wind develops, but improvement to VFR at KPDX is likely to be slow, most likely after 18Z-20Z.

MARINE. No changes from 323 pm discussion . A brief period of relatively light winds across the waters through Sunday morning as weak high pressure resides over the region. However, a stronger front is expected to move onshore Sunday night and Monday. Sustained winds of 30-35 kt are likely ahead of the front. Models are in decent agreement so have issued a Gale Warning starting Sunday evening through early Monday morning for all zones. PZZ270 & 250 (northern zones) may see gale gusts behind the front for a few hours Monday morning so have extended the gales in those zones. Have higher confidence that PZZ270 & 250 will hit gales given the higher probability of the NAEFS and GEFS ensembles. But operations runs from this morning suggest a good chance that gales will reach PZZ275 & 255 (southern zones.) Westerly swell following the front on Monday will build into the mid and upper teens. GWES ensemble has only 20 percent chance of exceeding 18 ft on Monday.

High pressure to return by Tuesday with a summer like pattern with a trough of low pressure near the coastline Wednesday. Winds will turn to an offshore pattern early Wednesday morning through Friday. /mh

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 8 PM PST Sunday for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 8 PM Sunday to 8 AM PST Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 8 PM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 NM.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 16 mi51 min 45°F 49°F1027.1 hPa (-0.9)
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 28 mi75 min E 9.9 G 11 43°F 1027.4 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 33 mi55 min 50°F7 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi51 min 44°F 48°F1026.9 hPa (-0.5)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 40 mi55 min 50°F7 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA26 mi58 minE 910.00 miFair43°F39°F86%1027.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9W8W5W4W5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmW4NW3CalmE3S3SW3S4S3CalmNE7NE4E6NE5E9
1 day agoSW33S5S6S5SE5E7NE3NE4E4E4E5E8E7E6E3SE3W4SW3SW6S6SE4E5S7
2 days agoE3E3E3E4E3E5E5E4E3E4CalmSW10S5SW7SW8W5CalmCalmSW4SW5CalmSW3S4S5

Tide / Current Tables for Willapa City, Willapa River, Washington
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Willapa City
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:35 AM PST     8.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:41 AM PST     3.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:20 PM PST     10.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:52 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:30 PM PST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.78.87.96.65.23.83.54.35.77.38.810.210.910.79.37.24.82.30.60.51.53.14.96.7

Tide / Current Tables for South Bend, Washington
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South Bend
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:07 AM PST     8.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:30 AM PST     2.84 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:47 AM PST     10.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:52 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:30 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:13 PM PST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.58.27.25.84.2334.15.67.38.910.110.49.685.83.41.20.20.51.83.55.47.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.