Thursday, June4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Willapa, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 9:07PM Thursday June 4, 2020 8:51 PM PDT (03:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:04PMMoonset 3:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 826 pm pdt Thu jun 4 2020 combined seas generally 5 to 7 ft through Saturday morning. Bar conditions light to moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 445 am and 515 pm Friday. The morning ebb will be very strong.
PZZ100 826 Pm Pdt Thu Jun 4 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow will persist through the end of the week. Additional systems traversing through the pacific northwest will bring stronger winds through the strait of juan de fuca and adjacent waters at times.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willapa, WA
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location: 46.68, -123.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 042123 AFDPQR

FXUS66 KPQR 041050 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 222 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry and quiet weather through Fri morning as a weak frontal boundary sits offshore in the Pacific. Late Fri night, an active system with a strong cold front will bring intensifying showers and unseasonably cool temperatures to the area on Sat. Rain will persist through the weekend with a brief break in the rain on Mon. Expect a very active first half of next week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Saturday . A weak frontal boundary sits offshore producing several very light rain showers. These showers are concentrated north of the forecast area, but there may be a few that drop just south over the south Washington coastline. Elsewhere, conditions are calm with clear skies and no precipitation; although some gustier winds are manifesting through the southern Willamette Valley due to an increased pressure gradient in the area. This quiet weather is really the calm before the storm as an intensifying low pressure system, stemming from the Gulf of Alaska, advances towards the Pacific NW. A cold front on the leading edge of the low will push inland late Fri night through Sat. Cold air will flood into the area causing temperatures and snow levels to drop. Unseasonably cool high temperatures in the 60s are expected through the weekend with snow levels falling to near 4500 ft. In addition to cool air, onshore flow will usher in significant moisture to northwest Oregon/southwest Washington. Expect intensifying showers all day on Sat. Due to lowering snow levels and increased precipitation, snowfall is expected through the Cascades, even reaching pass level. Although snow may be falling, ground temperatures are fairly warm so little to no accumulation is expected.

The real question on everyone's mind is whether or not there will be thunder associated with this system on Sat. This synoptic pattern is one that is prone for creating thunderstorms. However, there are several factors that may hinder storms from happening. The first is the shear amount of moisture in the area. With the amount of rain expected, it is possible that storms will be washed out. The second factor is the temperature. With the very cold air coming into the area there may not be the temperature contrast between the surface and air aloft that would create a convective environment. While the pattern is prone, will need some prolonged sun breaks in order to form any thunderstorms through the area. With that all being said, there is a slight chance for some thunder on Sat afternoon and evening. -Muessle

LONG TERM. Sunday through Wednesday . Sun will be very similar to the conditions expected on Sat as the system continues its track through the Pacific NW. Showers are expected to persist with heaviest accumulations along the coast and higher elevations. Again, another chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon but given the apparent weakening of the system in combination with the factors described previously, stuck with a slight chance of thunder.

Behind the low over the weekend, a weak high pressure system will build in. The high pressure, which once was strong enough the keep conditions dry on Mon, has weakened and thus become more of a transitional pattern. Showers are still possible on Mon but likely a high PoP low QPF style situation. By late Mon night, the next system is advancing towards the area. This active pattern is comprised of an intensifying low pressure system dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska. One difference between this low and the low from the weekend is that this pattern is also comprised of a negatively tilted long wave trough which is bringing in warmer air from the Pacific. Temperatures will be much warmer than the previous days with temps rising into the 70s inland, and mid 60s along the coast. Rain is also expected but will likely be more stratiform in nature. Another major difference is that this low remains nearly stationary over the northeast Pacific with several troughs embedded within the flow around the low. The first trough, mentioned previously, will bring the stratiform rain on Tue. The second will advance towards the area late Wed. In general numerical models are in decent agreement but with the nuanced environment will have to narrow down on the forecast over then next few days. -Muessle

AVIATION. Zonal flow with embedded small-scale disturbances continues over the region through tonight. VFR across the area early this afternoon, with BKN to OVC cigs 035-045 over the SW Washington coast and coastal valleys and the far north Oregon coast north of KTMK. Expect prevailing VFR across the area through at least 07Z Fri. The 12Z high-resolution guidance is suggesting possible southwest marine intrusion late tonight into Fri morning. This guidance also hints at possible IFR conditions near KONP late tonight. Have indicated SCT clouds around 1000 ft for KONP late tonight, but not going with a ceiling at this time. The south Washington and far north Oregon coast, generally north of KTMK, may see MVFR conditions around 12Z Fri, otherwise VFR will be the predominant category across the area Fri. Expect lowering ceilings Fri afternoon, especially along the coast.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR through Fri. Variable mid and high clouds through Fri morning. Cigs gradually lower Fri afternoon, to around 8000 ft by mid-afternoon and then to around 5000 ft between 21Z and 00Z Sat. Northwest wind gusts to 20 kt possible late this afternoon through the evening. -Weishaar

MARINE. Typical summertime pattern continues over the waters through tonight as high pressure remains over the NE Pacific. The 12Z model guidance shows 20-25 kt boundary layer wind speeds south of Cascade Head late this afternoon through this evening. Will maintain the current advisory. The northerly surface gradient looks to relax late tonight and Friday as low pressure develops over the offshore waters. The wind will back to the west Friday and Saturday with decreasing speed. High pressure briefly rebuilds across the offshore waters Sunday. Increasing south wind develops across the waters Monday night and Tuesday as a frontal boundary moves through the waters.

Seas generally remain in the 5-7 ft range through Monday. The ENP guidance shows seas at or just above 10 ft Tue. Decided to go slightly below the ENP for Tue and closer to the ECMWF wave guidance. Seas settle back into the 5 to 7 ft range during the latter half of next week. -Weishaar

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 NM.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 16 mi51 min NNW 8 G 13 55°F 61°F1015.8 hPa (-2.0)
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 28 mi75 min N 19 G 24 53°F 55°F1016 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 33 mi51 min 53°F5 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi51 min NNW 7 G 11 58°F 61°F1014.9 hPa (-2.0)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 40 mi51 min 57°F5 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA26 mi58 minNW 910.00 miFair57°F46°F67%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Willapa City, Willapa River, Washington
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Willapa City
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Thu -- 01:01 AM PDT     10.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM PDT     -2.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM PDT     8.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 PM PDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.410.910.28.35.52.4-0.6-2.2-1.7-0.21.94.26.488.78.26.84.82.71.51.93.65.77.8

Tide / Current Tables for South Bend, Washington
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South Bend
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:19 AM PDT     11.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM PDT     -1.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:26 PM PDT     9.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 PM PDT     2.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.811.5107.54.51.6-0.7-1.4-0.41.43.76.18.19.39.28.16.54.62.92.43.35.37.59.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.