South Bend, WA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Bend, WA

April 12, 2024 1:38 PM PDT (20:38 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM
Moonrise 7:33 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 200 Am Pdt Fri Apr 12 2024
combined seas 5 to 6 feet. Bar conditions light. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 745 am and 815 pm Friday and 830 am Saturday. The morning ebbs will be strong.

PZZ100 200 Am Pdt Fri Apr 12 2024

Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - Broad surface ridging behind a weak cold frontal passage will expand over the offshore and coastal waters Friday and Saturday. A frontal boundary will slide southward over british columbia later Sunday. Surface ridging gradually rebuilds across the waters early next week for a transition to quieter conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Bend, WA
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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 121836 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1135 AM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure sits over the northeast Pacific producing two waves of fronts which will move inland through the day. Light showers will persist through the weekend with increased chances for thunderstorms in Lane County Friday and Saturday afternoons. High pressure builds in once again late next week.

SHORT TERM
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...Minimal change in sensible weather in the short term forecast. Satellite imagery shows the low pressure center sitting around 44.04N -134.9W. This low has produced two separate fronts - though both are decaying quickly. The first front is draped over nearly all of Washington and western Oregon this morning, with the second still over the ocean. As the low shifts southward through the day, the jet stream will become negatively tilted and the jet streak on the western side of the low will intensify. There is a weak "tongue" of the jet that will sit right over Lane County this afternoon.
This low transition will cause winds to become more north- northeasterly though speeds will not be high. However, this may be enough to encourage orographic lift over the Cascades and could tap into some of the instability aloft. With the support of the section of the jet stream, cannot rule out some thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. However, with drier air at the surface and ample cloud cover during the day, thunderstorms may struggle to form. Will say though that high- resolution lightning models are showing a few outcomes bringing lightning to the southern Willamette Valley and Lane County Coast Range this afternoon. Sensible weather wise, temperatures will see little change but could be a degree or two warmer.
Temperatures on Thursday were at or above the 75th percentile for the NBM and other higher resolution models so have trended slightly warmer than what models are suggesting in order to account for a similar outcome.

Saturday is still trending on the warmer side and will be the warmest day of the weekend as an inverted trough forms over the area. Temperatures will vary with the warmest temperatures in the northern Willamette Valley and slightly cooler in the south.
The coast will remain moderate, and could even be slightly cooler than Friday's highs due to an onshore wind. With showers still a possibility and more of a westerly flow in the evening, cannot rule out the chances for thunderstorms along the Cascades. Currently sitting around 20% chances within the Willamette Natl Forest and associated foothills. Have extended the changes slightly more westward to include cities like Lowell due to a slight veering profile and increased projected CAPE values. Confidence is low, and this is not looking to be a widespread thunderstorm event. High pressure builds on Sunday.


LONG TERM
Saturday Night through Thursday...Onshore flow returns on Monday as an area of high pressure develops well off the coast in the northeast Pacific. The location of this low will usher in cooler air aloft (generally around -6 degrees C)
by Tuesday early morning. Overall high temperatures will cool a few degrees on Monday, and lows overnight (into Tuesday) too will cool. The NBM is showing low temperatures around 38-42 degrees F (25th-75th percentile), while around 35% of the other long range models are showing temperatures less than 40 degrees from McMinnville Eastward. Confidence is quite low given this spread, but if these cold temperatures do manifest cannot rule out a round of frost.

On Tuesday, the high pressure ridge over the Pacific will build, but there is a slight shift as a broad area of low pressure begins a slow decent southward from Canada over the Rockies. Looking at the long term model clusters, each are showing this overall pattern and could even take on the synoptic shape of an omega block. By Wednesday, easterly winds will develop which will bring in drier and potentially cooler air from east of the Cascades. There is quite a difference in modeled overnight temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.
Ultimately it will depend on how far south the trough gets over the Rockies, how much clearing we experience at night, and how cold the air is east of the Cascades. Cannot rule out frost again. One thing to note with a pattern like this is that commonly this is one of our windier pattern. It is not very strong at this point so climatologically anomalous winds are not expected. -Muessle



AVIATION
A decaying cold frontal boundary now sits east of the area across central Oregon. Conditions have been a mix of VFR and MVFR due to some low level SCT/BKN clouds this morning but will continue to trend towards all VFR as an upper level trough axis shifts eastward and surface heights begin to rise. Otherwise, we'll have to keep an eye on wrap- around shower and isolated thunderstorm activity later this afternoon through Friday evening across the southern portion of the forecast area - mainly in the vicinity of KEUG.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect predominately VFR although high resolution guidance keeps the probability for MVFR CIGS rather low at around 5-10% locally. A few scattered light showers may wander in the vicinity of the terminal this afternoon. N/NW winds at 5-10 knots will prevail into the evening before relaxing and becoming light and variable overnight. -Schuldt/Batz

MARINE
A rapidly weakening frontal boundary has passed overhead early this morning as the parent upper-level low pressure offshore begins to dive southward. This will allow northerly winds to increase as Friday progresses with gusts likely in the 20 to 30 knot range come after afternoon hours. Confidence higher this forecast cycle that these winds will work into not only the outer waters but also in the inner waters as well and have thus expanded the coverage of the Small Craft Advisory for today and tonight. It's worth noting the Columbia River Bar is under a Small Craft Advisory this early morning for strong ebb currents and 7-8ft seas before transitioning to 22-27 knot gusts midday into the afternoon. Going forward N-NW winds prevail through the weekend and while the inner water likely see a brief reprieve from Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday morning winds increase again late Saturday into Sunday. A NW swell at 7-9 feet persists into Tuesday before relaxing to 4-6 feet around the middle of next week. /Schuldt

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ271>273.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 8 mi51 min ENE 13G16 53°F 54°F29.87
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi63 min ENE 7G8.9 53°F 53°F29.86
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 25 mi43 min 53°F5 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi103 min 52°F5 ft


Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KHQM BOWERMAN,WA 20 sm45 minE 0610 smA Few Clouds55°F45°F67%29.84
Link to 5 minute data for KHQM


Wind History from HQM
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Washington
   
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Mailboat Slough
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Fri -- 12:31 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:09 AM PDT     10.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:54 AM PDT     -1.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:30 PM PDT     8.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:51 PM PDT     2.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Washington, Tide feet
12
am
4.6
1
am
6.6
2
am
8.4
3
am
9.7
4
am
10.3
5
am
9.9
6
am
8.5
7
am
6.3
8
am
3.8
9
am
1.4
10
am
-0.5
11
am
-1.2
12
pm
-0.3
1
pm
1.5
2
pm
3.6
3
pm
5.5
4
pm
7.1
5
pm
8
6
pm
8
7
pm
7.2
8
pm
5.8
9
pm
4.4
10
pm
3.3
11
pm
2.9



Tide / Current for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
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Fri -- 12:33 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:00 AM PDT     2.22 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:06 AM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:45 AM PDT     -3.92 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:33 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:15 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:20 PM PDT     2.28 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:30 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:19 PM PDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:56 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current, knots
12
am
1.9
1
am
2.2
2
am
2
3
am
1.3
4
am
0.2
5
am
-1.5
6
am
-2.9
7
am
-3.7
8
am
-3.9
9
am
-3.3
10
am
-2
11
am
-0.4
12
pm
1
1
pm
1.9
2
pm
2.3
3
pm
2.2
4
pm
1.7
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
-0.6
7
pm
-1.5
8
pm
-1.9
9
pm
-1.8
10
pm
-1.1
11
pm
0.1




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Pacific Northwest   
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Langley,Hill/Gray,Harbor,WA



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