Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tokeland, WA
December 5, 2023 7:42 PM PST (03:42 UTC)
Sunrise 7:43AM Sunset 4:28PM Moonrise 12:00AM Moonset 1:14PM
PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 203 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
combined seas 15 to 18 feet subsiding to 10 to 13 feet Wednesday afternoon. Bar conditions severe, becoming rough Wednesday afternoon. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 1030 pm tonight, 1130 am Wednesday morning and 1130 pm Wednesday night.
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
combined seas 15 to 18 feet subsiding to 10 to 13 feet Wednesday afternoon. Bar conditions severe, becoming rough Wednesday afternoon. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 1030 pm tonight, 1130 am Wednesday morning and 1130 pm Wednesday night.
PZZ100 203 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A frontal system will stall over western washington tonight with generally light winds. Meanwhile, seas remain elevated with 15 to 20 foot swells for the coastal waters. A weaker system looks to move over the area waters Thursday before high pressure builds over the area Friday.
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A frontal system will stall over western washington tonight with generally light winds. Meanwhile, seas remain elevated with 15 to 20 foot swells for the coastal waters. A weaker system looks to move over the area waters Thursday before high pressure builds over the area Friday.
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KPQR 052305 AAA AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 303 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
Moderate to heavy rainfall continues across the region through tomorrow as an atmospheric river stalls. As a result, river and urban flooding concerns will continue through at least Wednesday evening. A colder weather system will arrive Thursday, bringing additional rain and Cascade snow. There will be a brief break in the weather Friday before another warmer, yet weaker weather system arrives over the weekend.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Current radar imagery and observations as of 2pm PST show widespread rain across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as an atmospheric river pushes through the region. The cold front that moved in last night has slowed down, and is nearly stationary. Right now, the bulk of the rainfall is north of a line extending from western Lane County to Hood River.
Since last night, several rivers have reached at least minor flood stage and there have been numerous reports of urban flooding, including flooded roadways. Expect the threat for river and urban flooding to continue through at least Wednesday evening as this atmospheric river event continues. Please read the hydrology section below for more details.
The highest observed 1 hr rainfall rates so far have been between 0.25-0.40 in/hr. Here are general observed rainfall totals in the past 24 hours (2pm Mon to 2pm Tue PST):
- Coast: 2-4 inches - Coast Range, Willapa Hills, south WA Cascades and the northern-most portions of the north OR Cascades: 4-7 inches - I-5 corridor between Salem and Kelso/Longview: 0.50-1 inch - I-5 corridor between Salem and Eugene: 0.05-0.50 inch - Columbia River Gorge/Hood River Valley: 0.60-1.5 inch - Southern-most portions of the north OR Cascades and Lane County Cascades: 0.01-0.50 inch
The latest high-resolution models are in agreement of the front stalling, with moderate to heavy rain continuing across the region through at least Wednesday morning. The heaviest precipitation is still expected along the coast, Coast Range, south Washington Cascades, and northern-most portions of the north Oregon Cascades.
Forecast rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours are in the hydrology section. Winds in general will gradually weaken through tomorrow and be around around 5-10 mph.
Model guidance suggests that by late Wednesday afternoon, an upper level shortwave trough will begin pushing the front eastward. Once this happens, overall rainfall activity will decrease and briefly become more showery until the next system arrives Thursday. Post- frontal thunderstorms are a possibility along the coast Wednesday night as colder air moves in aloft and creates a more unstable atmosphere. -Alviz
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Broad upper level troughing expected to shift over the region on Thursday bringing another round of precipitation and cooler temperatures aloft. A frontal system will likely move across the area on Thursday while snow levels fall from 4000 ft to around 2500-3000 ft by late Thu night. Ensemble 850 mb temperatures drop to around -2 to -4 deg C which would support accumulating snow at Cascade passes. Due to the previous days of warm air, warm soils and roads, accumulation may be difficult to significant amounts. However, still may see anywhere from 6-10 inches in 24-hours.
Drier weather expected on Friday as appears likely to have a brief break between weather system. The next frontal system then expected to bring another round of precipitation on Friday. A plume of moisture with increased IVT values likely to be associated with this front, though there remains considerable uncertainty with exactly where the Atmospheric River will take it's aim. Latest models show this to be more directed toward the southern Oregon coast. Snow levels are expected to rise again on Saturday from around 3000 ft to 6000 ft. WPC cluster analysis shows upper level ridging building over the Pacific coast on Sunday, likely trending toward another break between systems. -Muessle/DH
HYDROLOGY
Still have rather slow moving front over the region, with continued rain, some locally heavy over the Coast Range and Willapa Hills into early this evening. Still, not much rain to south and southeast of Albany. As rest of the afternoon and evening progresses, the rain will push farther east and south, with all areas back in the rain for a while. Rain will decrease later tonight. Even, so, will be enough rain to maintain high water levels in our streams and rivers.
Expected rainfall over next 24 hours (most will fall tonight)...
** S WA Coast/Willapa Hills 0.5 to 2 inches ** OR Coast /Coast Range 2 to 4 inches ** Inland I-5 Corridor 0.75 to 1.5 inches (includes Cowlitz, lower Columbia, Willamette Valley)
** South Washington Cascades/foothills 1 to 3 inches ** Western Columbia Gorge 1 to 1.5 inches ** North Oregon Cascades/foothills 1 to 2 inches ** Lane County Cascades/foothills 0.5 to 1.5 inches ** Mid-Columbia Gorge/Hood River Valley 0.5 to 1 inch
Flooding continues along many of the rivers and streams draining the Coast Mts and Willapa Hills. Numerous flood warning remain in effect, with minor to moderate flooding. Have had reports of slides as well, one affecting Amtrak line in northwest Clark County. Other slides may occur, so anyone near steep hillsides should remain alert for changes in conditions of soil and vegetation. Flood Watch remains up for most of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon through Wed. But, with not so much rain over to south and southeast of Salem, suspect may have to lower watch in that area, as rivers not expected to flood in Linn or eastern Lane County.
On top of that, many of the smaller streams and creeks remain full tonight into Wed, with some minor flooding expected. Areas with poor drainage, such as railroad crossings and underpasses, as well as areas with leaf-clogged drains, will see significant ponding of water. An Small Stream and Urban Flood Advisory remains in effect through Wed evening as well. /Rockey
AVIATION
18Z TAFs: Radar and satellite imagery shows the atmospheric river (AR) spread over the northern portions of the forecast area from KSLE northward. Still have not seen rain near KCVO or KEUG yet, but it will slowly shift southward through the day. Generally will be VFR through the day until the post frontal environment where we will see CIGs slowly drop. More MVFR CIGs and vis expected at that time. The light to moderate rain too is impacting visibility - especially along the coast. Will see a slow improvement during the day for areas east of the Coast Range. LLWS remains a concern as winds at the surface are more variable to southerly and winds from 1000-2000 ft are westerly at 30-50 kt.
Because of this, LLWS is likely at terminals through terminals in East-West aligned terrain. Overall, will see minimal changes in the forecast through the next 24 hours as the AR just stalls over the area through around 15Z Wed. Will continue to monitor as the front traverses the area.
*Please note that the automated weather station at KONP (Newport) is currently out of service. This site is not maintained by the National Weather Service. Because of this, the TAF produced for KONP is based on model data without the input of observations, and may not be representative of current conditions.*
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with light to moderate rain. In heaviest rain will see the most reduced visibility. Winds are not nearly as strong as previously observed but LLWS is likely. Due to a lack of changes, have maintained that LLWS for a prolonged period of time.
-Muessle
MARINE
A dynamic pattern comprised of several systems will keep conditions fairly consistent through the next few days. Current seas of 12 to 16 feet will build tonight as winds becoming onshore and the wind waves compound with the background westerly swell.
With a low pressure system dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska, a cold front will move over the waters. This will bring periods of gusty winds - though will not exceed small craft advisory speeds.
Seas will build to around 18-20 feet late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a long period of 15-18 seconds. Seas will quickly ease behind this system to around 12 to 15 feet by Thursday early morning. Winds will ease behind this atmospheric river today and then ramp back up on Thursday with the next system. Borderline Small Craft Advisory level winds will follow suit. -Muessle
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia- North Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.
WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.
PZ...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 10 NM.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Columbia River Bar.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 303 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
Moderate to heavy rainfall continues across the region through tomorrow as an atmospheric river stalls. As a result, river and urban flooding concerns will continue through at least Wednesday evening. A colder weather system will arrive Thursday, bringing additional rain and Cascade snow. There will be a brief break in the weather Friday before another warmer, yet weaker weather system arrives over the weekend.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Current radar imagery and observations as of 2pm PST show widespread rain across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as an atmospheric river pushes through the region. The cold front that moved in last night has slowed down, and is nearly stationary. Right now, the bulk of the rainfall is north of a line extending from western Lane County to Hood River.
Since last night, several rivers have reached at least minor flood stage and there have been numerous reports of urban flooding, including flooded roadways. Expect the threat for river and urban flooding to continue through at least Wednesday evening as this atmospheric river event continues. Please read the hydrology section below for more details.
The highest observed 1 hr rainfall rates so far have been between 0.25-0.40 in/hr. Here are general observed rainfall totals in the past 24 hours (2pm Mon to 2pm Tue PST):
- Coast: 2-4 inches - Coast Range, Willapa Hills, south WA Cascades and the northern-most portions of the north OR Cascades: 4-7 inches - I-5 corridor between Salem and Kelso/Longview: 0.50-1 inch - I-5 corridor between Salem and Eugene: 0.05-0.50 inch - Columbia River Gorge/Hood River Valley: 0.60-1.5 inch - Southern-most portions of the north OR Cascades and Lane County Cascades: 0.01-0.50 inch
The latest high-resolution models are in agreement of the front stalling, with moderate to heavy rain continuing across the region through at least Wednesday morning. The heaviest precipitation is still expected along the coast, Coast Range, south Washington Cascades, and northern-most portions of the north Oregon Cascades.
Forecast rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours are in the hydrology section. Winds in general will gradually weaken through tomorrow and be around around 5-10 mph.
Model guidance suggests that by late Wednesday afternoon, an upper level shortwave trough will begin pushing the front eastward. Once this happens, overall rainfall activity will decrease and briefly become more showery until the next system arrives Thursday. Post- frontal thunderstorms are a possibility along the coast Wednesday night as colder air moves in aloft and creates a more unstable atmosphere. -Alviz
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Broad upper level troughing expected to shift over the region on Thursday bringing another round of precipitation and cooler temperatures aloft. A frontal system will likely move across the area on Thursday while snow levels fall from 4000 ft to around 2500-3000 ft by late Thu night. Ensemble 850 mb temperatures drop to around -2 to -4 deg C which would support accumulating snow at Cascade passes. Due to the previous days of warm air, warm soils and roads, accumulation may be difficult to significant amounts. However, still may see anywhere from 6-10 inches in 24-hours.
Drier weather expected on Friday as appears likely to have a brief break between weather system. The next frontal system then expected to bring another round of precipitation on Friday. A plume of moisture with increased IVT values likely to be associated with this front, though there remains considerable uncertainty with exactly where the Atmospheric River will take it's aim. Latest models show this to be more directed toward the southern Oregon coast. Snow levels are expected to rise again on Saturday from around 3000 ft to 6000 ft. WPC cluster analysis shows upper level ridging building over the Pacific coast on Sunday, likely trending toward another break between systems. -Muessle/DH
HYDROLOGY
Still have rather slow moving front over the region, with continued rain, some locally heavy over the Coast Range and Willapa Hills into early this evening. Still, not much rain to south and southeast of Albany. As rest of the afternoon and evening progresses, the rain will push farther east and south, with all areas back in the rain for a while. Rain will decrease later tonight. Even, so, will be enough rain to maintain high water levels in our streams and rivers.
Expected rainfall over next 24 hours (most will fall tonight)...
** S WA Coast/Willapa Hills 0.5 to 2 inches ** OR Coast /Coast Range 2 to 4 inches ** Inland I-5 Corridor 0.75 to 1.5 inches (includes Cowlitz, lower Columbia, Willamette Valley)
** South Washington Cascades/foothills 1 to 3 inches ** Western Columbia Gorge 1 to 1.5 inches ** North Oregon Cascades/foothills 1 to 2 inches ** Lane County Cascades/foothills 0.5 to 1.5 inches ** Mid-Columbia Gorge/Hood River Valley 0.5 to 1 inch
Flooding continues along many of the rivers and streams draining the Coast Mts and Willapa Hills. Numerous flood warning remain in effect, with minor to moderate flooding. Have had reports of slides as well, one affecting Amtrak line in northwest Clark County. Other slides may occur, so anyone near steep hillsides should remain alert for changes in conditions of soil and vegetation. Flood Watch remains up for most of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon through Wed. But, with not so much rain over to south and southeast of Salem, suspect may have to lower watch in that area, as rivers not expected to flood in Linn or eastern Lane County.
On top of that, many of the smaller streams and creeks remain full tonight into Wed, with some minor flooding expected. Areas with poor drainage, such as railroad crossings and underpasses, as well as areas with leaf-clogged drains, will see significant ponding of water. An Small Stream and Urban Flood Advisory remains in effect through Wed evening as well. /Rockey
AVIATION
18Z TAFs: Radar and satellite imagery shows the atmospheric river (AR) spread over the northern portions of the forecast area from KSLE northward. Still have not seen rain near KCVO or KEUG yet, but it will slowly shift southward through the day. Generally will be VFR through the day until the post frontal environment where we will see CIGs slowly drop. More MVFR CIGs and vis expected at that time. The light to moderate rain too is impacting visibility - especially along the coast. Will see a slow improvement during the day for areas east of the Coast Range. LLWS remains a concern as winds at the surface are more variable to southerly and winds from 1000-2000 ft are westerly at 30-50 kt.
Because of this, LLWS is likely at terminals through terminals in East-West aligned terrain. Overall, will see minimal changes in the forecast through the next 24 hours as the AR just stalls over the area through around 15Z Wed. Will continue to monitor as the front traverses the area.
*Please note that the automated weather station at KONP (Newport) is currently out of service. This site is not maintained by the National Weather Service. Because of this, the TAF produced for KONP is based on model data without the input of observations, and may not be representative of current conditions.*
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with light to moderate rain. In heaviest rain will see the most reduced visibility. Winds are not nearly as strong as previously observed but LLWS is likely. Due to a lack of changes, have maintained that LLWS for a prolonged period of time.
-Muessle
MARINE
A dynamic pattern comprised of several systems will keep conditions fairly consistent through the next few days. Current seas of 12 to 16 feet will build tonight as winds becoming onshore and the wind waves compound with the background westerly swell.
With a low pressure system dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska, a cold front will move over the waters. This will bring periods of gusty winds - though will not exceed small craft advisory speeds.
Seas will build to around 18-20 feet late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a long period of 15-18 seconds. Seas will quickly ease behind this system to around 12 to 15 feet by Thursday early morning. Winds will ease behind this atmospheric river today and then ramp back up on Thursday with the next system. Borderline Small Craft Advisory level winds will follow suit. -Muessle
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia- North Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.
WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.
PZ...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 10 NM.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Columbia River Bar.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA | 0 mi | 55 min | E 5.1G | 50°F | 52°F | 29.96 | ||
| WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA | 15 mi | 67 min | ENE 4.1G | 49°F | 51°F | 29.94 | ||
| 46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) | 18 mi | 47 min | 51°F | 18 ft | ||||
| 46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 | 35 mi | 77 min | 53°F | 17 ft | ||||
| 46099 | 37 mi | 173 min | S 12 | 52°F | 53°F | 29.93 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHQM BOWERMAN,WA | 18 sm | 11 min | E 05 | 7 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 48°F | 48°F | 100% | 29.92 |
Wind History from HQM
(wind in knots)Toke Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:16 AM PST 1.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM PST 7.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 01:14 PM PST Moonset
Tue -- 01:15 PM PST 3.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 06:47 PM PST 6.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:16 AM PST 1.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM PST 7.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 01:14 PM PST Moonset
Tue -- 01:15 PM PST 3.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 06:47 PM PST 6.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.7 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.6 |
| 3 am |
| 3.7 |
| 4 am |
| 5 |
| 5 am |
| 6.2 |
| 6 am |
| 7.1 |
| 7 am |
| 7.5 |
| 8 am |
| 7.4 |
| 9 am |
| 6.8 |
| 10 am |
| 6 |
| 11 am |
| 5.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 4 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 5.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 6.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 6.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 6.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 5.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.3 |
Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:45 AM PST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:11 AM PST 1.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:23 AM PST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:45 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 10:43 AM PST -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:15 PM PST Moonset
Tue -- 02:00 PM PST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:10 PM PST 0.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:28 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 06:47 PM PST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:33 PM PST -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:45 AM PST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:11 AM PST 1.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:23 AM PST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:45 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 10:43 AM PST -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:15 PM PST Moonset
Tue -- 02:00 PM PST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:10 PM PST 0.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:28 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 06:47 PM PST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:33 PM PST -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| -0.6 |
| 9 am |
| -1.2 |
| 10 am |
| -1.6 |
| 11 am |
| -1.7 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.8 |
Langley,Hill/Gray,Harbor,WA
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