Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moscow, ID

SYNOPSIS
Mild and dry with an increasing risk for elevated fire weather conditions from gusty winds and dry conditions today. Wind gusts of 15 to 30 mph will common across the region. A pattern shift arrives Friday into the weekend delivering much cooler temperatures and chances for showers.

DISCUSSION
Wednesday: A shortwave trough will eject inland out ahead of a larger low pressure system spinning off the coast, sending a cold front sweeping across the Inland Northwest Wednesday evening.
Westerly winds will pick up through the Cascade gaps and over the Columbia Basin through the day as the pressure gradient across the Cascades strengthens ahead of the front. Winds will peak in the late afternoon and evening with sustained speeds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts to 35 mph. With dry and warm conditions still in place, gusty winds will result in elevated to critical fire weather concerns, enabling rapid spread of new and existing fires. A few areas of higher terrain including the Cascades Crest and northern mountains of WA and ID have a low chance (20%) of seeing light rain with this shortwave, but overall moisture is looking minimal. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the lee of the Cascades and the western Columbia Basin for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to the expected gusty winds and relative humidities falling into the teens and 20s. Relative humidities will be quick to recover Wednesday night following the passage of the front.

Thursday through Monday: Warm temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s will linger through Thursday, then models are in strong agreement on substantial cooling as the closed low offshore pushes inland. Friday will feature high temperatures in the low to mid 70s, and by Saturday, highs will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s. In addition to cooling temperatures, the system will bring much needed precip across the region.

Probabilities for greater than or equal to 0.10 inches, 0.25 inches, 0.50 inches, and 1 inch of total rainfall for various locations between Friday morning and Monday morning are as follows:

Northern WA (Omak, Republic, Colville): 95%, 90%, 55%, 20% Far Eastern WA (Spokane, Pullman): 85%, 70%, 30%, 15% Central WA (Moses Lake, Ephrata, Wenatchee): 60%, 35%, 15%, 5% Cascade Crest (Stevens Pass, Washington Pass): 100%, 90%, 65%, 30% North ID (Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint): 100%, 90%, 80%, 65% Central ID Panhandle (Lewiston, Craigmont): 80%, 60%, 20%, 5%

Over the Cascades, snow levels will drop to 5500 feet, so precipitation falling in the form of light snow can't be ruled out for those higher elevations. Prepare for a chilly weekend if you plan on adventuring in the backcountry. Heading into early next week the trough will move east of the region and weaken, bringing an end to our precipitation. /Fewkes

AVIATION
18Z TAFS: Marine clouds have stacked up along the Cascade crest this morning with local mountain obsrns. VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will increase this afternoon with gusts 20-25 mph. Gusts for the sheltered northern valleys (Republic, Colville, Priest Lake, Bonner Ferry will likely be more infrequent coming with unstable afternoon conditions. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph expected around Wenatchee, Waterville, and Ephrata closer to 00-03z. Winds will decrease overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. Will need to watch for patchy blowing dust in the western Columbia Basin as the peak of the winds come through closer to 00z. This comes with low confidence and main area that will need to be watched is between Ritzville and Moses Lake.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
Spokane 81 49 77 51 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 Coeur d'Alene 81 49 78 51 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 20 50 Pullman 78 44 72 47 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 20 40 Lewiston 89 55 82 56 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 40 Colville 79 39 79 44 72 38 / 10 10 0 0 10 70 Sandpoint 79 47 77 48 70 45 / 0 10 0 0 20 70 Kellogg 78 52 74 55 67 48 / 0 0 0 0 30 60 Moses Lake 84 46 81 52 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 Wenatchee 81 52 81 57 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 Omak 83 46 81 51 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 80

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
ID...None.