Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 9:08 PM   Moonset 5:49 AM

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FXUS66 KOTX 242323 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 423 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
After a brief break tonight and Thursday morning, another system will bring wide spread precip to the Inland Northwest. It will start a cooler, showery period that will last through the weekend and into the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

Tonight into Thursday: As the weak cold front exits the region, winds will calm. Thursday morning will start pleasant. Increasing clouds will build west to east across the region as the next system begins to move into the Inland Northwest. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

Late Thursday through Friday: Another Low will quickly move through the Pacific Northwest. It is expected to bring a round of much needed showers to the Inland Northwest with most areas with at least a 30% probability of at least a tenth of an inch of precip. The east slopes of the Cascades is expected to be impacted by the rain shadow effect and should receive less. Increased cloud cover and cooler airmass will lead to cooling trend for the rest the of period. An isolated lightning strike is possible with these showers but confidence is very low. Thursday and Friday highs will in the mid 50s to 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and low 40s.

Saturday through Tuesday: Models are keeping the region in a cooler, wet pattern as a strong Low slowly moves through the Gulf of Alaska. The region can expect periods of mountain snow for the Cascades and rain showers for the rest of the Inland Northwest.
Many areas will receive beneficial rains after the previous dry spell across the region. Highs will continue to be in the mid 50s and 60s. By the end of the entire period, portions of the northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle could receive near half an inch of precip. Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s and low 40s.
Some areas in the northern valleys could see upper 20s. /JDC

AVIATION
00Z TAFS: A weakening continue moving through north Idaho early this evening leading to several hours of locally breezy conditions across central and eastern Washington. Gusts in the 20-25kt range will be possible through the Cascade gaps including Wenatchee, Chelan, and Ephrata. Guidance from GFS MOS is no longer advertising ceilings in the 2000-3500ft range Thursday morning around Spokane, Coeur d'Alene and Sandpoint which is more in line with HRRR and NAM MOS. A scattered to broken 4000-5000ft deck around 18z will lower with an approaching band of light to moderate rain. Look for rain chances to increase around Wenatchee, Chelan, and Moses Lake between 18-21z and spread into Spokane, Coeur d'Alene and Pullman between 21-24z. /GKoch

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings with the incoming rain Thursday afternoon will be a challenge. GFS MOS is quite pessimistic for Wenatchee with ceilings below 2000 feet with periods below 1000 feet in the afternoon. The HRRR doesn't forecastceilings quite that low, perhaps because it is ensemble based guidance. For the time being, we went with more optimistic ceilings as the rain spreads from west to east in the afternoon.
/GKoch

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 41 60 44 57 42 58 / 0 40 80 70 20 30 Coeur d'Alene 41 58 43 53 41 55 / 10 30 90 80 30 50 Pullman 40 58 43 55 40 56 / 10 30 90 80 30 30 Lewiston 45 66 49 61 46 63 / 0 30 80 60 20 20 Colville 36 61 41 56 40 58 / 10 40 90 90 50 70 Sandpoint 41 55 44 52 41 54 / 10 40 90 90 50 70 Kellogg 44 55 45 50 43 53 / 10 40 90 90 50 70 Moses Lake 41 63 43 65 42 67 / 0 40 30 20 10 10 Wenatchee 44 60 46 62 44 63 / 0 50 30 20 10 10 Omak 41 63 45 62 44 65 / 0 50 70 50 30 30

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.

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