Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 1:44 AM   Moonset 6:41 PM

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LSZ144 Expires:202406190139;;530847 Fzus73 Kdlh 190129 Rra Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 829 pm cdt Tue jun 18 2024
lsz143>147-150-162-190139- /o.exp.kdlh.ma.w.0015.000000t0000z-240619t0130z/ 829 pm cdt Tue jun 18 2024
.the special marine warning will expire at 830 pm cdt - .
the affected areas were - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - . Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn - . Two harbors to duluth mn - .
the Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a tornado watch remains in effect until 900 pm cdt for northeastern minnesota.
&&
lat - .lon 4669 9229 4668 9224 4672 9223 4681 9211 4716 9147 4716 9137 4701 9146 4703 9079 4683 9111 4682 9118 4683 9122 4674 9150 4666 9193 4666 9203 4671 9210 4666 9211 4662 9221 4664 9230 time - .mot - .loc 0129z 270deg 31kt 4725 9093 4675 9171

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 022324 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Best chances (30-40%) for scattered strong thunderstorms from 6-11 PM this evening are in the Iron Range, Borderlands and Arrowhead of northern Minnesota. Severe storms are not expected.

- Next chance for widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is Thursday night into Friday morning over inland northwest Wisconsin.

- Near-normal temperatures throughout the forecast period.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A cold front moves from west to east over the Northland this afternoon and evening. Afternoon clearing behind widespread rainfall this morning helped to initiate isolated showers so far this afternoon in north-central Minnesota. Mean storm motion will be east-northeastward as southwesterly low-level winds veer westerly in the mid to upper-levels this evening. Model forecast soundings support high-res cam guidance of scattered strong thunderstorms peaking in coverage from 6-11 PM this evening as mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and CAPE of 600-800 J/kg sustain updrafts long enough to produce pea to maybe penny size hail later today. Elevated winds around 30-35 knots may create gusts of 40-45 mph with any collapsing storms in this same time period. The most favored potential is from Grand Rapids to Two Harbors northward in northeast Minnesota.

The mid-level trough passes by the Northland after Midnight tonight to leave near-normal temperatures in the mid-70s to around 80 and gusty westerly winds behind for Wednesday. A secondary trailing backdoor cold front drops southward Wednesday afternoon and supports another chance of general thunderstorms in far northern Minnesota for Wednesday afternoon and evening again.

Those near-normal upper-70 temperatures last into the Independence Day holiday on Thursday, as a low pressure in the Lower Midwest drapes a warm front immediately south of the region. This area of mid-level divergence with building instability axis from north-central MN into inland northwest Wisconsin is most likely to create concerns for scattered daytime general to strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
Deepening on where the warm front sets up the northward extend near the South Shore Thursday night, locally heavy rainfall up to a couple of inches of rainfall may (30-40% chance) setup for inland northwest Wisconsin. The more favored solution though is this rainfall being closer to a half inch to one inch though for the inland parts of northwest Wisconsin through Friday morning as the low pressure drifts eastward.

A trough centered in the Central Canadian Prairies deepens Friday into Saturday morning as it drops southeastward into the northern US Plains by Saturday evening. Any speed up in this trough could create concerns for strong thunderstorms over parts of northern Minnesota for Saturday evening and overnight and ending Sunday morning. Near-normal temperatures with periodic thunderstorm chances last into the first part of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

IFR/MVFR ceilings still envelope portions of the Northland this evening but a cold front moving in from the west will bringing some drier air. Out ahead of this front we do have a few storms across northern MN and some drizzle/light rain entering NW WI. The window for storms is limited and will be diminishing through the overnight hours. Some fog may develop before sunrise but is not expected to linger long. Tomorrow will sport some breezy winds out of the west with some isolated storms possible across northern MN.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Gusty southerly winds from the Apostles eastward to Saxon Harbor this afternoon further decrease into the evening before shifting southwesterly for Wednesday. Gusty southwesterly winds forecast to 25 knots near and north of Grand Marais tomorrow afternoon resulted in a Small Craft Advisory being issued.
Lighter easterly winds are likely Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140.

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