Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Duluth, MN
March 29, 2024 9:56 AM CDT (14:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:50 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 11:46 PM Moonset 7:26 AM |
LSZ145 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 535 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123
the affected areas were - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123
LSZ100
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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 291204 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 704 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A clipper system will bring mixed precipitation and the potential for up to around 3 inches of snow from Friday afternoon into midday Saturday.
- Ice amounts increased with this forecast for portions of the North Shore and northwest Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisories were issued.
- A storm system will move across the Midwest early next week.
The system continues to trend farther south, with a low chance (10-20%) for winter weather impacts for southern portions of the Northland, primarily in NW WI.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 504 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
A double-barrel low pressure system was over the northern and central Plains this morning. A shortwave trough was found slightly farther west per 08Z RAP analysis. A zone of warm air advection was creating a broad area of isentropic ascent punctuated by a narrow zone of enhanced 925-700 mb frontogenesis. Regional radar mosaic and GOES-East IR imagery revealed a narrow band of snow, locally heavy in spots, propagating generally northeastward over northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota.
The shortwave trough and low pressure systems will propagate eastward across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest through Saturday morning. Precipitation and cloud cover will spread across the Northland from west to east today. Precipitation will fall as a mix of rain and snow initially today. The deeper forcing and moisture will move out of the Northland a bit faster than the lower-level moisture, and as such, there is a risk of freezing drizzle after the rain/snow comes to an end. Ice amounts have increased slightly over portions of the North Shore and northwest Wisconsin. The combination of snow and freezing rain/drizzle will create slippery conditions tonight through mid-morning Saturday. We issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the mix of snow and icing for lakeshore portions of Lake and Cook counties as well as Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, and Price counties in Wisconsin. These are the areas most likely to see between a tenth and two tenths of ice accumulation.
Temperatures today will trend a bit warmer, even with the return of overcast skies. Temperatures will be warmest over northwest Wisconsin. Highs today will reach the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Precipitation will taper off from west to east during the early through mid-morning hours Saturday. Total snow accumulation will range from a dusting from Brainerd to Hinckley to Phillips and points south to 1 to 3 inches over north-central Minnesota into the Arrowhead. Highs on Saturday will top out in the middle 30s to the middle 40s.
Attention then shifts to Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Split flow over the central CONUS into Canada will persist. The northern stream will feature a shortwave trough and compact bolus of vorticity which propagates east-southeastward across northern Ontario Sunday into early Monday morning. At this time there will be an increase in cloud cover while any precip chances will remain in Ontario. The southern stream will be a bit more organized with another trough pushing into the central Plains and Midwest Sunday evening through Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern Colorado with the resultant surface low propagating eastward across the central Plains and into the Midwest through Tuesday evening. Ensemble solutions continue to paint low chances of a few inches of snow possible across central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin while the bulk of the members, and the deterministic suites, keep most of the precip south of our forecast area. Will maintain low chance PoPs with that system through Monday.
Temperatures will trend warmer through the remainder of the week with readings on Friday perhaps climbing above normal everywhere. Highs that day are forecast in the upper 40s to low 60s.
There are hints another storm system may bring wintry precipitation to the region in the April 9-11 timeframe.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 705 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions persist into this afternoon and evening when a fast-moving clipper will bring lower ceilings and a mix of rain, snow, and freezing drizzle to the terminals. Added FZDZ to the forecast with this update along with IFR CIGS/VIS as the heavier period of the precipitation moves through. Visibility will improve as precipitation ends from west to east between 30.06 and 30.18Z. Ceilings will be slower to improve as low stratus loiters in the wake of the system into Saturday afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
High pressure will advance eastward ahead of a developing clipper system this morning. Look for winds to veer northeasterly and easterly by this evening and gradually strengthen. Winds and waves will become hazardous for small craft near the Twin Ports this afternoon. Hazardous conditions will expand up the North Shore and South Shore this evening. As the clipper propagates east of the area Saturday, look for winds to back northwesterly and westerly with wind speeds and gusts diminishing. Wind speeds and gusts will increase again Sunday night and Monday as a pair of low pressure systems pass over the region. One system will east-southeast across northern Ontario while the other, slower and more potent, system passes east across the central Plains and Midwest. Conditions may become hazardous to small craft once again early next week.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ020-021.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ001>003.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ004-009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ141>143-146-147-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ144-145.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 704 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A clipper system will bring mixed precipitation and the potential for up to around 3 inches of snow from Friday afternoon into midday Saturday.
- Ice amounts increased with this forecast for portions of the North Shore and northwest Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisories were issued.
- A storm system will move across the Midwest early next week.
The system continues to trend farther south, with a low chance (10-20%) for winter weather impacts for southern portions of the Northland, primarily in NW WI.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 504 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
A double-barrel low pressure system was over the northern and central Plains this morning. A shortwave trough was found slightly farther west per 08Z RAP analysis. A zone of warm air advection was creating a broad area of isentropic ascent punctuated by a narrow zone of enhanced 925-700 mb frontogenesis. Regional radar mosaic and GOES-East IR imagery revealed a narrow band of snow, locally heavy in spots, propagating generally northeastward over northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota.
The shortwave trough and low pressure systems will propagate eastward across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest through Saturday morning. Precipitation and cloud cover will spread across the Northland from west to east today. Precipitation will fall as a mix of rain and snow initially today. The deeper forcing and moisture will move out of the Northland a bit faster than the lower-level moisture, and as such, there is a risk of freezing drizzle after the rain/snow comes to an end. Ice amounts have increased slightly over portions of the North Shore and northwest Wisconsin. The combination of snow and freezing rain/drizzle will create slippery conditions tonight through mid-morning Saturday. We issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the mix of snow and icing for lakeshore portions of Lake and Cook counties as well as Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, and Price counties in Wisconsin. These are the areas most likely to see between a tenth and two tenths of ice accumulation.
Temperatures today will trend a bit warmer, even with the return of overcast skies. Temperatures will be warmest over northwest Wisconsin. Highs today will reach the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Precipitation will taper off from west to east during the early through mid-morning hours Saturday. Total snow accumulation will range from a dusting from Brainerd to Hinckley to Phillips and points south to 1 to 3 inches over north-central Minnesota into the Arrowhead. Highs on Saturday will top out in the middle 30s to the middle 40s.
Attention then shifts to Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Split flow over the central CONUS into Canada will persist. The northern stream will feature a shortwave trough and compact bolus of vorticity which propagates east-southeastward across northern Ontario Sunday into early Monday morning. At this time there will be an increase in cloud cover while any precip chances will remain in Ontario. The southern stream will be a bit more organized with another trough pushing into the central Plains and Midwest Sunday evening through Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern Colorado with the resultant surface low propagating eastward across the central Plains and into the Midwest through Tuesday evening. Ensemble solutions continue to paint low chances of a few inches of snow possible across central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin while the bulk of the members, and the deterministic suites, keep most of the precip south of our forecast area. Will maintain low chance PoPs with that system through Monday.
Temperatures will trend warmer through the remainder of the week with readings on Friday perhaps climbing above normal everywhere. Highs that day are forecast in the upper 40s to low 60s.
There are hints another storm system may bring wintry precipitation to the region in the April 9-11 timeframe.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 705 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions persist into this afternoon and evening when a fast-moving clipper will bring lower ceilings and a mix of rain, snow, and freezing drizzle to the terminals. Added FZDZ to the forecast with this update along with IFR CIGS/VIS as the heavier period of the precipitation moves through. Visibility will improve as precipitation ends from west to east between 30.06 and 30.18Z. Ceilings will be slower to improve as low stratus loiters in the wake of the system into Saturday afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
High pressure will advance eastward ahead of a developing clipper system this morning. Look for winds to veer northeasterly and easterly by this evening and gradually strengthen. Winds and waves will become hazardous for small craft near the Twin Ports this afternoon. Hazardous conditions will expand up the North Shore and South Shore this evening. As the clipper propagates east of the area Saturday, look for winds to back northwesterly and westerly with wind speeds and gusts diminishing. Wind speeds and gusts will increase again Sunday night and Monday as a pair of low pressure systems pass over the region. One system will east-southeast across northern Ontario while the other, slower and more potent, system passes east across the central Plains and Midwest. Conditions may become hazardous to small craft once again early next week.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ020-021.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ001>003.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ004-009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ141>143-146-147-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ144-145.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN | 1 mi | 56 min | NE 5.1G | 31°F | 30.04 | 23°F | ||
PKBW3 | 7 mi | 116 min | 0 | 15°F | 30.09 | 15°F | ||
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI | 37 mi | 76 min | 0G | 23°F | 30.09 | |||
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN | 56 mi | 76 min | NE 5.1G | 31°F | 30.10 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDYT SKY HARBOR,MN | 4 sm | 21 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 27°F | 21°F | 80% | 30.07 | |
KSUW RICHARD I BONG,WI | 5 sm | 21 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 25°F | 16°F | 68% | 30.08 | |
KDLH DULUTH INTL,MN | 8 sm | 61 min | ESE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 25°F | 16°F | 68% | 30.03 | |
KCOQ CLOQUET CARLTON COUNTY,MN | 22 sm | 21 min | E 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 28°F | 18°F | 64% | 30.02 |
Duluth, MN,
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