Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashford, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 4:57PM Thursday January 21, 2021 10:06 PM PST (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:52AMMoonset 1:13AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 838 Pm Pst Thu Jan 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Tonight..N wind 5 to 15 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..N wind 10 to 20 kt easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Sat..SW wind to 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sun..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
PZZ100 838 Pm Pst Thu Jan 21 2021
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A low moves south beyond the outer coastal waters this evening, with strengthening northerly flow over the waters. Winds and seas increase late Saturday as the next front approaches and then moves across the waters Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashford, WA
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location: 46.81, -122.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 220456 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 856 PM PST Thu Jan 21 2021

UPDATE. Radar this evening shows some light showers lingering across portions of the Southern Sound and Cascades. Latest hi- res guidance hints that showers will stick around for a few more hours tonight, before tapering overnight. Skies will gradually clear from north to south overnight and with residual low- level moisture, could see areas of fog develop across the Southern Sound and Southwest Interior by the early morning hours. Minor tweaks were made to the forecast package this evening to account for current trends. The previous discussion follows below, with updates made to the aviation and marine sections. 14

SYNOPSIS. A weak system will exit the area tonight with dry and cool conditions expected Friday and much of Saturday. Wet weather will return to the region Sunday through at least mid next week with low snow levels in place.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Upper trough offshore continues to shift southward this afternoon with remaining showers confined to the southern half of the forecast area. Skies will gradually clear from the north overnight into Friday morning with most areas becoming mostly sunny Friday afternoon. Northerly flow will develop at the surface and aloft on Friday and will usher in a cool and dry air mass. Low temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning will likely be near or below freezing for most of the region.

The flow aloft buckles on Saturday as a cool upper trough shifts southward along the British Columbia coast. Light precipitation with this system will spread across Western Washington by early Sunday morning. It will be a fairly cool system with snow levels likely to lower to between 500 and 1000 feet. Low level southerly flow and 1000/850 millibar thicknesses at or above 1300 meters aren't favorable for lowland accumulation, but a dusting of the white stuff isn't out the question for portions of Whatcom County and some of the higher hills further southward.

As the upper trough shifts onshore Sunday night, there is the possibility of a convergence zone developing. As we've seen as recently as last month, the convergence zone can be effective at increasing precipitation rates just enough to get snow down closer to sea level. Confidence in any degree of detail is low at this point, but, with ambient snow levels already quite low, it bears monitoring.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Mean troughing remains over the region Monday into Tuesday with 500 millibar heights hovering in the lower 530s dam and 850 millibar temperatures of -5 to -8 C. Moisture won't be particularly plentiful, but thickness values will be sufficiently low to bring snow levels down to around sea level . especially at night. Model agreement is reasonably good with another system brushing the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, but confidence in the amount of moisture available remains rather low. This is reflected well in both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles with a wide degree of spread in potential snowfall amounts.

While we are entering an extended period of cooler than normal temperatures and low snow levels, it's not a "classic" snow scenario with cold air pouring of the Fraser River valley. Ensemble guidance suggests that the best chances of snowfall accumulation exceeding an inch will be over portions of Western Whatcom County and elevations further south above 500 to 1000 feet. Any lowland snowfall accumulations would likely be diurnally driven to some degree and dependent on precipitation rates. Stay tuned. 27

AVIATION. An upper low will continue to move south off the coast of Washington. Northerly surface winds will continue across most terminals overnight. Mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings overnight, with some breaks in the mid-level deck likely leading to fog in the typically more prone locations.

KSEA . VFR conditions expected through the period. Mid level cloud deck will begin to scatter toward 18z Fri. Otherwise, northerly winds expected through the period. 12

MARINE. Increasing northerly winds over the waters tonight into Friday. Some low-end advisory winds likely develop through portions of the northern inland waters and through Puget sound. Winds ease a bit on Friday.

Northerly flow will become more southerly later Saturday ahead of an approaching frontal system. This front will be making its way over the area waters Saturday into Sunday. We are expecting small craft winds over the coastal waters for much of Sunday. Westerly swell will build Sunday to 12-16 feet for the near coastal waters and closer to 20 feet for the outer coastal waters. Sea conditions will begin to ease later Monday afternoon. 12

HYDROLOGY. No river flooding expected over the next 7 days as total QPF is expected to remain light.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 37 mi66 min NNE 14 G 18
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 37 mi66 min 44°F 48°F1017.9 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Tacoma MET, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pierce County-Thun Field, WA24 mi71 minN 010.00 miOvercast41°F41°F100%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPLU

Wind History from PLU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tacoma, Commencement Bay, Washington
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Tacoma
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:21 AM PST     8.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:19 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:32 AM PST     7.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:23 AM PST     10.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:14 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:57 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:01 PM PST     1.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.48.88.78.37.67.17.17.58.39.310.310.910.810.18.87.15.13.32.11.623.14.76.4

Tide / Current Tables for Steilacoom, Washington
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Steilacoom
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM PST     10.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:20 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:09 AM PST     7.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:53 AM PST     12.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:15 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:58 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:38 PM PST     1.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.31010.29.88.87.87.37.58.49.711.112.212.612.1119.27.14.831.91.82.64.16.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.