Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cleveland, ND

UPDATE
Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

No major adjustment to the forecast were necessary with this mid day update. Weak reflectivities continue to dawdle across the forecast area, though there remains no evidence that much if any precipitation has reached the ground so far. In eastern Montana, lowering cloud bases and diminishing surface dewpt depressions are evident along a cold front. PoPs will thusly increase starting in the northwest this afternoon as this front makes it in the forecast area.

UPDATE Issued at 907 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Weak reflectivities have developed along and ahead of a weak surface trough in eastern Montana at the time of this mid morning update. With cloud bases around or above 8kft, and a significantly dry near surface layer with dewpt depressions around 20 to 30 degrees, little to no precipitation is anticipated to reach the ground at this time. Otherwise, increased cloud cover is moving in from the west, with surface winds remain light and roughly south of the southwest. No major adjustments to the forecast were performed with this update, as it remains on track at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Higher elevations in western North Dakota contain temperatures in the 50s, with one observation in Little Missouri State Park registering 61 degrees. However, for locations in lower elevations, with clear skies, and either light and variable winds or southeasterly winds, temperatures have dipped below what was forecast for early this morning. As would be expected in a case like this, the upper air sounding released this morning shows a very strong near-surface inversion. As winds become westerly across the entire state today, this warmer air will mix down resulting in the previously advertised well above average high temperatures.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 346 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A thermal ridge is in the process of passing through the Northern Plains this morning, while Canadian upper low pressure will break it down this afternoon. Meanwhile, at the surface, low pressure over southern Canada will slide eastward today through tonight. Associated cold frontal boundary will pass from northwest to southeast through the state. The progressively moving frontal boundary will likely enter northwestern ND sometime mid to late afternoon and fully pass through the state around midnight give or take a couple hours. Light rain is likely to accompany this frontal passage. As such, wetting rains (a tenth of an inch or more) are unlikely, with most locations only expected to receive no more than a couple to a few hundredths.

Prior to the aforementioned frontal passage, a tightening pressure gradient will generate breezy winds in the northwest during the day today. Also, winds this morning are expected to be out of the southwest for much of the area. This will produce downslope enhancement along and downwind of the Missouri Coteau where the orientation of the Coteau is from northwest to southeast. These downsloping winds will diminish as winds take on a more westerly component later this morning or early afternoon. Said westerly winds, along with aforementioned thermal ridging, and potential compressional heating ahead of the frontal boundary, will lead to the warmest overall temperatures across the state during this past week. Most locations will remain in the 60s, though areas near the Canadian border may stay in the upper 50s, while the southwest may encroach into the low 70s. These forecast highs are within a couple degrees of records for climate sites within the forecast area.

Following the cold fropa, cooler and mostly dry conditions are expected for the weekend. However, there are low chances that some light precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, could fall Saturday afternoon. Any rain Saturday would likely be fairly isolated in nature. During this timeframe, Pacific trough will migrate onto the west CONUS and set the stage for next week.

For next week, things remain a bit up in the air. While there is high confidence for more seasonable highs, there is lower confidence in regard to potential precipitation. The current temperature forecast is mostly in the 30s to low 40s for next week. However, the NBM deterministic is usually warmer than the 50th percentile, and often closer to the 75th. This is likely due to some recency bias, which may not play out with the change in pattern. Or in other words, there is a higher probability that overall temperatures wind up a bit cooler than currently forecast rather than warmer.

Overall precipitation trends remain similar to prior forecasts for next week in that light precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, remains possible on Monday before transitioning Monday night and becoming pretty much all snow Tuesday. However, despite the overall trend being similar, the NBM has also shown a noticeable shift towards a bit drier solution to start the workweek in that coverage is not as widespread as compared to prior runs, and PoPs mainly range from 20 to 30 percent rather than 20 to 40 percent. A mix of light rain and snow chances then persist through at least Wednesday night. Bottom line is that lower end precipitation chances remain in the forecast for next week, but confidence in impactful weather at any particular location on any particular day remains low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Mainly VFR ceilings and visibility is anticipated at all terminals throughout the 18Z TAF period. Chances for isolated rain showers increase this afternoon through early tonight. Have added PROB30 groups for -RA at all terminals with this update.
Brief periods of MVFR visibility is possible where rain does develop, mostly convincingly at KXWA at this time. A brief period of borderline MVFR ceilings is also possible in the far southwest on the backside of showers, though have opted to leave this out of the KDIK with this update. Otherwise, gusty west winds this afternoon are anticipated to turn northwesterly as a cold front passes through the forecast area. Winds will then diminish, becoming light while turning west northwesterly again overnight through the end of the TAF period.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.