Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cleveland, ND

UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Diurnal cumulus has developed across western North Dakota over the past few hours, though has already begun to diminish across the southwest as it is overrun by high cirrus. Little to no reflectivities can be found under this cirrus at the time of this update, and a significantly dry near surface layer will likely prevent any measurable precipitation from reaching the ground if it does form. Surface analysis drapes a cold front across northeastern Montana this evening, with showers and a few thunderstorms already developing along its length. The front and associated thunderstorms are anticipated to lift across our northwestern counties later this evening, though short-term models continue to bias the storms further to north and away from our area with every forecast cycle. However, the steep lapse rates near the surface could allow strong gusts to develop basically wherever showers do develop tonight, so we will continue to monitor the environment.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Currently, southwest flow aloft with a deep upper level trough over the western CONUS and broad ridging east. Quasi-stationary surface trough remains orientated from southeastern MT northwest into far southeastern Saskatchewan. Southerly flow ahead of this boundary has resulted in another day of unseasonably warm temperatures, into the 90s most places already early this afternoon, along with records broken at Bismarck, Minot, and Dickinson with a few more hours of heating yet this afternoon.
In addition, critical fire weather (see below for further discussion) continues south central and across the James River Valley. While winds have been lighter than expected south central, they remain gusty in the James Valley where peak gusts to 45 mph have been observed coupled with RH values near 15 percent.

Embedded energy in southwest flow aloft riding over the aforementioned sfc trough is still expected to trigger some convection this evening across northwest North Dakota, with most activity originating in Montana. Gusty outflow winds/downdraft winds will be the main hazard with any more robust storm.

For Tuesday, sfc trough/frontal boundary nudges eastward into central North Dakota, maintaining hot and dry conditions south central and east. Expected additionally fire weather headlines to be issued for Tuesday, once out current headlines are done. A few record high temperatures are also in jeopardy for tomorrow, mainly KBIS, KMOT, and KJMS.

Base of the western CONUS trough will lift north-northeast into the Northern Plains Wednesday through Thursday, bringing widespread rainfall to the state. Wed we will still have a window for possible strong to severe storms, as the main wave interacts with a quasi-stationary sfc boundary as the above mentioned trough stalls over the central Dakotas. Guidance does show the best shear lagging the best instability earlier in the day, but we could see up to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE overlapping 45 knots of 0-6km shear during the day. SPC has placed much of our central and east in the marginal to slight risk for severe weather in their latest Day 3 convective outlook. Temperatures on Wednesday will trend cooler west where 60s are forecast.
Ahead of the front, still looking at highs near 90 in the James Valley of ND.

Widespread high precipitation chances (70 to 90 percent)
continue Wednesday night through Thursday night, as the upper low slowly moves northeast then east across our region. While our Storm Total QPF currently ranges from 0.5-0.75 west and 1-2 inches central and east, the systems dry slot could decrease these amounts depending on where it wraps into. On the other side, convection during the day Wed could see the higher rainfall totals along to east of the boundary vs the rest of the event. Regardless, widespread and beneficial rainfall is likely most areas mid-week.

System moves off to our east by Friday, resulting in mainly dry weather though cooler temperatures, with lows Friday night approaching freezing and increasing the potential for frost.
These cooler temperatures persist through the weekend/early next week, with lows near freezing and highs in the 50s and 60s.

Deterministic global models and ensembles/NBM are indicating the potential for more moisture late this coming weekend into early next week across the region. Will monitor.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated at all terminals throughout the TAF period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will pass across northwestern North Dakota later this evening into the early overnight period. Confidence remains too low at the time of this update to include any mention of either at any given terminal. LLWS will develop across portions of central North Dakota later this evening, lingering across south central North Dakota overnight. Have included WS groups at KBIS from 04Z to 12Z and at KJMS from 05Z to 09Z with this update. Southerly winds will remain breezy overnight, turning out of the northwest and becoming gusty with sustained speeds up to 25 MPH and gusts up to 35 MPH Tuesday afternoon as a low pressure system crosses through the forecast area.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

For today, hot and very dry conditions will continue across much of western and central North Dakota, bringing more near- critical to critical fire weather conditions. Portions of the south central and much of the James River Valley are expected to see gusty southerly winds once again, leading to more critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag Warning remains in effect here through early this evening. Elsewhere, expect near-critical fire weather conditions. Look for somewhat improved humidity recoveries tonight.

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions may then return on Tuesday. Timing of a cold front combined with uncertainty in fuels has cause for holding off on additional fire weather products at this time.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ022-023-025-035>037-045>048-050-051.