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LSZ146 Expires:202310052300;;562082 Fzus73 Kdlh 052249 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-146-147-150-162-052300- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt...
for the following areas... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi...
at 548 pm cdt, showers capable of producing waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots were located along a line extending from devils island, to raspberry island lighthouse, to near siskwit bay harbor, moving east at 35 knots.
hazard...waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots.
source...radar indicated.
impact...waterspouts can create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
showers will be near... Red cliff, raspberry island lighthouse, and apostle islands national lake shore around 555 pm cdt. Stockton island and outer island around 600 pm cdt.
other locations impacted by showers include stockton island, apostle islands national lake shore, and outer island.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected.
waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat...lon 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9085 4692 9095 4683 9113 4709 9088 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time...mot...loc 2248z 265deg 35kt 4708 9071 4696 9083 4680 9102
waterspout...possible hail...0.00in wind...40kts

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 281032 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 432 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

DISCUSSION
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 431 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages...

1) Lake effect snow affecting northern Iron County early this morning to come to an end within the next few hours. We have a a Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM.

2) A wave of snow will move across the area this afternoon and tonight bringing light snowfall amounts to mainly the Arrowhead and Borderlands, with amounts of less than 2 inches.

3) Much below normal temperatures this morning to moderate through the middle part of the week, with near to above normal temperatures for the latter half of the week and next weekend.

Our weather radar is currently mostly overshooting the lake effect snow showers that are streaming over northern Iron county, but satellite shows streamers of clouds that are bringing light snow to Ironwood and also periodically to La Pointe. These clouds have been weakening over the Bayfield Peninsula so far this morning as generally drier air moves into the area from the west.
The wind direction has been slowly shifting from northwest to the west, which should help push the lake effect streamers east of the area, and reducing the snowfall rates over northern Iron county.
For now, these trends support the expiration time of 6 am of the Winter Weather Advisory, but it may need a short term extension depending on these trends. Temperatures early this morning have gotten well below normal, with a large portion of the area in the single digits, with parts of northeast MN even below zero. The coldest temperatures are under a ridge axis where skies have also cleared over the western portions of the forecast area.

A new clipper will move across the forecast area this afternoon and evening, which should produce an area of light snow that will affect mainly the Arrowhead of MN, bringing light snowfall amounts of an inch or less to much of the Arrowhead. One exception is the very tip of the Arrowhead, where around 2 inches are possible today and tonight. The strong warm air advection aloft that is part of this shortwave will also allow temperatures to warm significantly today, with high temperatures rising into the 20s for most of the area. Even as this shortwave moves back out of the area tonight snow showers will linger overnight tonight and even into Wednesday morning. Temperatures warm to above normal on Wednesday, then cool back off again for the latter half of the work week as more cold air moves back into the area again for Thursday and Friday. Thursday and Friday currently appear to have a dry forecast, but I would not rule out some flurries/light snow showers as we remain in a cyclonic flow pattern that together with a weak ripple could produce them.

Late this weekend and early next week a fairly strong upper level trough axis will move across the region. For now the best chances appear to be on Sunday, with some chance pops on Saturday night and Sunday before it moves off to the east on Monday. There is rather poor agreement in the operational models starting Sunday night, but the ensembles show that an upper level low moves across the central CONUS Sunday through Tuesday, supporting the precipitation chances. Temperatures remain near to above normal through this time range.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are in place across the region early this morning with lingering lake effect snow bands in spots.
These are mainly away from the terminals, but some MVFR ceilings are in the vicinity of HYR and pass over the terminal from time to time. Have treated this with a TEMPO group for the first few hours before drier air arrives and cloud break up. A clipper system will pass along the International Border during the afternoon on Tuesday and may bring a few light snow showers to INL. Confidence on these snow showers reaching the Iron Range and any further south is low and have trended more optimistic with ceilings and snow showers with this update. Some low end low level wind shear is possible during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday as surface winds become southwesterly while winds aloft remain northwesterly. Have added this at DLH, HIB and BRD with this update, but it may impact INL and HYR as well.

MARINE
Issued at 431 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A ridge of high pressure settling over western Lake Superior has allowed winds to diminish this morning, and have expired or cancelled the Small Craft Advisories that were in effect overnight. There may be some locally stronger wind gusts for a few more hours early this morning, but these too should diminish. Once the ridge axis slides east of the area by mid morning, allowing winds to turn to the west and then southwest by mid morning with speeds rapidly increasing again. Have issued an suite of Small Craft Advisories for all of the zones starting at 10 AM, then upgrading the Outer Apostle Islands zones to a Gale Warning at 6 PM until midnight tonight. A few other locations may also experience a few Gale force gusts, but should be limited in area or time and have refrained from upgrading any other zones. Winds gradually turn to the west tonight, and waves remain built up through Wednesday before diminishing again Wednesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 25 19 35 21 / 10 10 0 0 INL 28 21 34 21 / 50 10 0 10 BRD 29 20 38 21 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 26 16 36 18 / 10 10 0 0 ASX 28 20 38 23 / 20 10 0 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for WIZ004.

MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-144>148.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ140>143.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ150.

Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST tonight for LSZ150.

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