Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cornucopia, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Thunderstorm activity has pushed well off to our southeast this morning with some scattered rain showers still appearing on radar across the Northland. Later this morning an upper level trough will eject out the Red River Valley and produce some rain showers across northern MN. There is some very weak MUCAPE in the morning that could lead to a few rumbles of thunder but overall not expecting much in way of impactful rain or storms.
Look for this area of showers to moves west to east exiting the Arrowhead in the afternoon.

Today will also see very cloudy conditions as easterly winds across the region will help spread the influence of Lake Superior through the Northland. Satellite imagery as of 3AM shows this expansive cloud has already engulfed NW WI and is quickly heading towards the Iron Range and the Brainerd Lake Region. Model guidance is in good agreement with keeping this blanket expanding farther east through the day. Foggy conditions will also be prevalent, especially the closer you get to Lake Superior. With this in mind we have dropped high temperatures 2-5F across the region from what the previous forecast package had.

Wednesday/Thursday:

We get a small reprieve in the active weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday as the Northland finds itself in between low pressure systems with dry air aloft keeping precipitation at bay. The only exception to this may be our far southeast counties. The 00Z suite of deterministic guidance has trended farther southeast with the system but a quick glance at both the AIGFS and EC-AIFS shows northwest WI still getting clipped as the system tracks towards Lake Michigan. For now, we will keep a mention of low end PoPs of 30-40%. With the surface boundary staying well off to our south some elevated convection would be the primary concern with small hail being the main hazard if any storms do manage to form. The other low pressure to the northwest looks to stay that way with good model consensus propagating it into Ontario.

Thursday will be quiet with a stalled out boundary draped across northern MN and a strong southerly push of winds through the day.
Highs will climb into the 60s and 70s with the traditional cooler by the Lake type of day.

Friday into the Weekend:

Friday is still shaping up to be our next active and impactful weather day. An upper level trough digs into the four corners region with an elongated system developing across the Upper Midwest and down into the Central Plains. The northern most low pressure looks to make its way into northern MN with a cold front dropping south across the Brainerd Lakes. Ahead of this boundary will be a broad warm sector that will see increased dewpoints surging into the region. We will also likely see a gulf connection boosting our PWATs and adding fuel to the atmosphere for storms to develop. Current guidance would suggest moderate instability with adequate bulk shear for severe storms to develop. Details will have to be refined as we get closer but at this time it looks like all hazards will be possible ahead of the cold front.

As Friday's system departs we will see a plunge of cold air crashing in from the northwest Friday night and lingering into Saturday. Wrap around moisture will fall as snow with some light accumulations overnight possible. However, given how warm we have been our ground temperatures will likely make quick work of this snow. There is a signal for increased rates late Saturday morning into the afternoon as the upper level trough pivots over the region providing a boost to synoptic forcing. The current NBM guidance wants to have a couple of inches of accumulation for Saturday, but not sure that seems reasonable even with the boost in forcing. High temperatures are still expected to get above freezing and the high sun angle for mid April should also work against these totals. SLRs are currently 15- 16:1 which seems way too high for Saturday afternoon, 10:1 max would probably be generous. Further adjustments will likely be needed.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Widespread LIFR ceilings are expected to be a mainstay through the forecast period. Fog will be possible this morning with some erosion possible this afternoon. However, fog will return later this evening. Additionally, scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms will be possible across northern MN beginning later this morning. This activity will track east through the forecast period and exit the Arrowhead in the afternoon hours.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The gustiest northeast winds across Lake Superior have passed with a few gusts around 20 kts still being observed across the Lake. Small Craft Advisories have been canceled. There is an expansive cloud deck emanating from Lake Superior that is expected to remain in place through today and into tomorrow. This cloud deck may sink lower to the Lake leading to dense fog, however, webcams have not shown this development yet and model guidance is split on whether this will come to fruition. A marine dense fog advisory may be needed at later this morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Low fire weather concerns today and tomorrow as Min RHs largely stay above 40%. A surge of southerly winds on Thursday could lead to some drier and windier conditions. Not expecting winds or RHs to approach Red Flag Criteria. Widespread active weather returns Friday with severe weather possible followed by snow potential late Friday through Saturday. Minimal snow accumulations expected.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Recent snowmelt combined with pockets of moderate to heavy rain have led to rising and high rivers across the Northland. Pretty much every river gauge one can look at across NE MN and NW WI has seen some rise. Across the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and into NW WI (outside of the South Shore), rises have been fairly controlled and minor. On the North Shore, antecedent colder snowpack and a tempered return to warmer spring temperatures has meant the melt is still getting going. Most observed river level trends still on the up swing here. The Beaver River near Beaver Bay is just starting to flirt with action stage this morning, with water expected to be just coming out of banks at this stage with some possible wet spots along the Superior Hiking Trail. Other North Shore streams are following that lead with high flows expected for most waterways in Lake and Cook County through this week as daily temperatures above freezing keep the melt going.

On the South Shore, recent notable rises across the Bad River watershed have started to turn over. On the Bad, Tyler Forks, and Potato Rivers, a crest was observed overnight with downward trends this morning. As all these rivers are feeding from a similar snowpack this suggests that the peak of snowmelt rates has come and gone. Some snow remains which may result in an overall downward trend in river stage but with an embedded diurnal rise as snowmelt is enhanced in the afternoon. Because the near term threat of widespread rain-on-snow flooding appears to be past for the time being, the Flood Watch will be allowed to expire this morning, with lingering Flood Warnings for the Tyler Forks and Montreal Rivers.

While some passing showers are possible through the week, it's not until Friday-Saturday that a better chance for thunderstorms and widespread rain return to the area. This should allow for remaining snowmelt to keep working through area waterways. By the time Friday rolls around, it seems most plausible that the only significant snowpack remaining would probably be along the North Shore with some pockets of snow lingering in the higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties. Flooding concerns could be two-fold on Friday: rain-on-snow along the North Shore adding onto persisting high flows, and pluvial flash flooding in areas where conditions are already saturated (mostly NW WI).

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ002>004.
MARINE...None.