Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 140542 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 352 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

A compact area of low pressure was centered over northwest Minnesota this afternoon. A convergent band of lake effect snow was located between Silver Bay and Lutsen. Another band of snow ahead of a weak warm front was over northwest Wisconsin. Finally light snow was falling across much of the rest of the Northland.

The snow band over northwest Wisconsin will continue its eastward trek at around 30 MPH and will move out of the area by 5 PM. Visibility has remained low in the wake of the strongest reflectivities for about an hour or so. Surface convergence over Lake Superior is forecast to shift farther north along the shore this evening as the surface low pushes east across northern Minnesota. Easterly flow off Lake Superior will result in orographic lift along the shore and areas inland. Look for snow rates to increase tonight. Snow will gradually taper off across our western zones late tonight and should wind down over the Arrowhead Saturday morning.

As winds back northwesterly overnight the focus for lake effect snow showers will shift to the South Shore. Have raised snow amounts with this forecast. While snow will begin tonight with the arrival of the band over northwest Wisconsin at the time of this writing, there will be a lull this evening through the overnight. The majority of the snow will fall between 6 AM Saturday and 6 AM Sunday morning. Snow totals 5 to 7 inches are expected in northern Iron County with widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches elsewhere. Have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Lake Effect Snow for Iron County. Opted to start the headline now since up to an inch of snow is expected late this afternoon and early evening.

Skies gradually clear from west to east on Saturday, except under the lake effect snow bands. Temperatures will trend colder for Saturday with highs in the single digits over the west to the upper teens and low 20s under the clouds in northwest Wisconsin. Much colder Saturday night as clear skies and light winds allow for efficient radiational cooling. Look for lows in our Minnesota generally between -10 and -18 degrees Fahrenheit. Not as cool in northwest Wisconsin where lingering lake effect clouds will limit cooling. Look for lows from around 5 above to 12 below zero.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 352 CST Fri Dec 13 2019

High pressure will be the main story on Sunday, keeping temperatures in the single digits with sunshine. Some weak warm air advection moves in Sunday night ahead of an upper level shortwave. Not much moisture is associated with this system, so mainly expecting increasing cloud cover Sunday night into Monday morning, but there may be a few snow showers mainly along the International Border.

Another shortwave will move through Monday night into Tuesday morning. This one looks to be a little more potent, but with moisture again lacking, not looking at seeing much precipitation from this system.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will dive southeast from Canada Tuesday night, and this will likely drop low temperatures into the single digits and teens below zero. There may also be some lake effect snow showers along the South Shore with favorable northwest winds and 850-mb temperatures around -18C.

This cold air will be short lived, however, as southerly winds develop on Wednesday with 850-mb warm air advection and a broad ridge developing over the upper midwest. Some light snow may accompany this warm air advection, with the best chances in northern Minnesota.

Towards the end of the week, models diverge on timing and placement of an upper level trough and accompanying surface low that may move through sometime between Thursday and Friday. Any precipitation that may result from this looks to be light at this time. Temperatures will likely warm up into the 20s towards the end of the week as the jet stream slowly migrates north.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

An area of low pressure continued to affect the Northland late this evening with areas of light snow, some smaller areas of moderate to heavy snow, and patchy freezing drizzle. The heavier snow showers were occurring along portions of the North Shore which was seeing snow enhancement from off lake winds. There were also some heavier snow showers moving through far northern Wisconsin. There are some warmer cloud tops from far east central Minnesota into portions of northern Wisconsin which could result in a period of freezing drizzle into the early morning hours and until colder air arrives as the low pressure system departs. Ceilings remained variable from low VFR to IFR and we expect that will continue tonight with the low VFR ceilings becoming more widespread late tonight into Saturday from northwest to southeast. The snow will also come to an end later tonight into Saturday for most areas. The lake effect snow along the North Shore will end late tonight. MVFR conditions with some IFR as well will continue in northern Wisconsin through much of the period as winds turn northerly and lake effects occur, including snow showers. The MVFR ceilings and possible light snow may reach as far inland as KHYR.

MARINE. Issued at 1018 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

Winds have diminished for a time late this evening but as an area of low pressure pulls away from the region and high pressure builds into the area on Saturday, the gradient will tighten and winds will increase again as they switch to northerly. North to northwest winds on Saturday will increase to 12 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 knots. This will build waves, especially along portions of the South Shore and Small Craft Advisories may be needed, most likely for portions of the South Shore. Winds will diminish Saturday night to 15 knots or less for most areas then decrease further on Sunday as they back to west to southwest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 10 13 -10 4 / 90 30 0 0 INL 2 7 -14 6 / 90 10 0 0 BRD 5 9 -14 4 / 50 0 0 0 HYR 14 19 -6 8 / 80 30 10 0 ASX 17 22 3 11 / 90 70 70 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ004.

MN . Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ020-021.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ011-012.

LS . None.

SHORT TERM . Huyck LONG TERM . JS AVIATION . Melde MARINE . Melde

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI	21 mi	55 min	WSW 13 G 17	23°F			1008.4 hPa (-0.9)	22°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI	40 mi	75 min	WSW 5.1 G 7	22°F			1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI	25 mi	62 min	WSW 7	9.00 mi	Overcast	18°F	14°F	84%	1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN

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