Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 211141 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

DISCUSSION. (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Summary: Another round of scattered afternoon rain and snow showers will be possible today across the Northland. Tomorrow will see widespread sunshine before a chance of rain moves in on Friday and continues through the weekend. Temps gradually increase the next couple days, with highs in the low 60s on Thursday. Cooler temps move in this weekend, with highs in the 40s on both Saturday and Sunday.

A longwave trough remains positioned over the Great Lakes region this morning and is expected to be centered over Michigan today before propagating east. This trough will provide vorticity at 500mb, which is likely to lead to another round of scattered rain and snow showers this afternoon. Forcing, and therefore precip, will primarily be concentrated in the Arrowhead and northwest WI. Expect precip to initially start off as snow this morning before transitioning to rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulations are likely to be minimal. However, a couple tenths of snow are possible for portions of the CWA. Highest snow accumulations will be along and east of U.S. 63 in northwest WI, where snow amounts up to a half inch are possible this morning.

The limiting factor for snow accumulation and precip reaching the ground today will be the dry air near the surface. Model soundings show an inverted V profile extending up to 800mb across the CWA. This low level dry air will likely evaporate most of the rain and snow before it reaches the surface. Therefore, confidence in snow amounts exceeding a couple tenths of an inch this morning is low. However, there is still the chance for a pocket of heavier snow that might overcome the lack of low level moisture and overperform snowfall-wise. Therefore, slightly higher amounts up to 0.5" was kept in the forecast for portions of Iron and Price County. This amount was supported by several models, which helped increase confidence above the point of removal from the forecast. Expect rain and snow to taper off in the late afternoon, as the mixed layer deepens, the low levels further dry out, and the trough continues to move east.

This trough will exit the region tomorrow as a ridge builds over the CWA. This ridge will result in sunny skies and high temps on Thursday reaching the low 60s across much of the area. This brief reprieve from the rain and snow will be short-lived though as low pressure from Colorado moves into the Northland on Friday. This low will bring a chance for rain and snow across much of the area. Hot on the heels of Friday's low pressure will be a shortwave trough, which will keep rain and snow in the forecast on Saturday. Next week may continue the active pattern, with periodic chances for rain and snow.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

VFR conditions throughout the period. Scattered diurnal rain and snow showers are likely to develop this afternoon. However, cig and vsby reductions are not expected due to a layer of dry air near the surface. Most of the rain and snow that falls today is likely to evaporate before reaching the surface. This will greatly reduce rain/snowfall magnitude and impact this afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Winds this morning are expected to be northwest at 5 to 10 knots. This afternoon, winds along the North Shore and in the Apostle Islands are expected to increase to 10 to 15 knots. Wind direction shifts to the southwest tonight for most zones as a ridge builds over the area. This shift to southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will result in waves building to 1 to 3 feet along the North Shore. Higher waves of 2 to 4 feet will be possible on Thursday from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage. In addition, the outer Apostle Islands also have the potential to see these 2-4 foot waves. Elsewhere, waves are expected to remain at 2 feet or less today and tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 40 29 59 37 / 20 0 0 0 INL 44 28 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 43 30 61 38 / 0 0 0 10 HYR 42 26 60 35 / 20 0 0 0 ASX 42 28 60 37 / 10 0 0 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

DISCUSSION . Unruh/BJH AVIATION . Unruh/BJH MARINE . Unruh/BJH

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI	20 mi	74 min	S 4.1 G 5.1	29°F			1019.3 hPa
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI	21 mi	54 min	S 1.9 G 2.9	29°F			1020.3 hPa (+0.0)	28°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN	29 mi	74 min	WNW 5.1 G 8	30°F			1019.3 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI	40 mi	74 min	S 4.1 G 5.1	29°F			1019 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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7 AM

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Last 24hr

NW10 G15

NW9 G13

NW7 G10

NE5 G8

N4 G8

NE6 G9

NE7 G11

NE6 G11

E4

E4

E3

NE7 G10

NE4

E2

NE2

NW4

NW9 G13

N2 G7

N5 G9

NW3

NW7 G11

W3

W4

SW3

1 day ago

NW15 G25

NW20 G26

NW20 G28

NW16 G23

NW10 G16

NW8 G14

NW18 G24

NW17 G24

NW12 G24

NW15 G21

NW11 G16

NW5 G13

NW7 G15

N6 G10

N4 G7

NW3 G6

NW6

NW6

NW8 G11

NW9 G12

NW9

NW9 G12

NW9

NW9 G13

2 days ago

SW7

SW6 G9

SW7

SW4

SW9 G12

SW12 G15

SW11 G15

SW14 G17

SW20 G28

SW10 G13

NW19 G27

W11 G14

NW12 G20

NW14 G23

NW17 G26

NW20 G29

NW16 G21

NW9 G13

N8 G18

N10 G15

NW11 G16

NW13 G20

NW11 G16

NW19 G24

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI	25 mi	61 min	WSW 3	1.50 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	28°F	26°F	92%	1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

W4

NE8

NE4

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NE10

NE10 G17

E8

N9

NE7

NE6

NE7

NE5

NE5

E5

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

W4

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W3

1 day ago

NW8

N7

NW12 G21

NW12 G22

N12 G22

NW14 G21

N17 G22

N12 G21

NW11 G23

N14 G19

NW13

NW12 G22

N8

NE3

Calm

Calm

SW4

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SW4

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W3

2 days ago

S4

SW7

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SW10 G18

W11

6 G15

SW4 G17

SW10 G21

SW11 G16

SW15 G26

W10 G23

W11

W11

NW15 G22

NW15 G25

W9 G17

NW9

NW10

NW11

W10

NW9

NW7

NW9

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