Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 300327 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1027 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

A well-advertised outbreak of colder air will arrive on Wednesday which will linger for the remainder of the week. A deep and slow moving upper-level trough will loiter over the Northland throughout the short term period with several shortwaves rotating southward through the flow.

A deep and slow-moving upper-level trough was located over the western Great Lakes and the Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. An unusually strong 150 kt 300 mb jet streak will move over the Northland tonight with a ribbon of 500 mb vorticity nosing into the Upper Midwest this evening. Cold air advection will support a scattered shower development over northern Minnesota and adjacent areas of northwest Ontario this afternoon and this evening. Height falls associated with an approaching shortwave trough will re-introduce stratus and showers tonight through Wednesday. A few rumbles of thunder are possible this evening and again on Wednesday, with the best chance of isolated storms Wednesday afternoon. A few thunderstorms were noted near Kenora, ON this afternoon and instability may leak south of the international border before 00Z and would yield 250 to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Cold air drainage and katabatic flow may create locally stronger winds tonight along portions of the North Shore from Silver Bay to Grand Marais. Temperatures will trend cooler for Wednesday and the cold air advection will help keep the boundary layer well mixed. Momentum transfer from aloft will introduce gusty winds Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Wind gusts as high as 35 mph are possible in central Minnesota with gusts 20 to 25 mph over the rest of the Northland. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to upper 50s. Shower chances continue Wednesday night as cold air advection continues.

LONG TERM. (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

Upper-level trough axis will shift east over eastern Ontario and the central Great Lakes on Thursday and will push farther east and into New England by 00Z Saturday. Northerly flow over the Northland will reinforce the colder air over the region and keep temps well below normal through Monday. Several shortwave troughs will rotate southward over the area during the long range and will bring periodic chances of rain showers. Temperatures aloft will be cool enough to support a few snowflakes Thursday night and again Friday night into Saturday morning. Any snowflakes which survive to eye-level will be “conversational” in nature, and accumulation is unlikely. Lake effect rain showers are possible for portions of the South Shore and adjacent areas of northwest Wisconsin inland from Lake Superior Thursday and Thursday night. Have held onto slight and chance POPs for those areas.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

VFR conditions are expected this evening and overnight. Several lines of scattered showers are moving across the area this evening, with a few isolated thunderstorms. However, these isolated TS have been mainly confined to the Arrowhead. Winds transition to the northwest this evening as a cold front passes through. Ceilings are likely to lower to MVFR early tomorrow morning as stratus moves in. In addition to lower ceilings, winds are expected to become gusty in the morning and continue for most of tomorrow. Scattered showers continue throughout the day, leading to periods of reduced visibilities down to 6 miles.

MARINE. Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

A cold front is expected to move through tonight, leading to scattered showers. Winds of 5 to 10 knots will shift to the northwest overnight. Winds are expected to strengthen behind the front, as strong cold air advection occurs. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected with gusts up to 25 knots possible. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued from Sand Island to Saxon Harbor due to increased confidence in higher winds. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the remaining nearshore zones, since gusts up to 25 knots may be possible. Wind gusts are likely to calm down Wednesday night. Waves tonight are expected to be 2 feet or less before increasing to 1-3 feet tomorrow and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 42 56 39 48 / 50 60 50 10 INL 41 54 34 45 / 40 70 60 10 BRD 44 55 41 47 / 60 50 40 10 HYR 41 56 39 48 / 60 60 50 20 ASX 43 58 40 49 / 50 60 60 30

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-147-148.



SHORT TERM . Huyck LONG TERM . Huyck AVIATION . Unruh/GSF MARINE . Unruh/GSF

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI	20 mi	34 min	WNW 14 G 22	54°F			1002.4 hPa
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI	21 mi	74 min	W 4.1 G 7	55°F			1001.6 hPa (-1.0)	50°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN	29 mi	34 min	NW 6 G 12	52°F			1001.4 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI	40 mi	34 min	S 6 G 8	52°F			1001 hPa
45028 - Western Lake Superior	42 mi	34 min	NNW 21 G 25	53°F	51°F	2 ft	1002.6 hPa	48°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN	47 mi	34 min	N 16 G 18	52°F	49°F		1002.5 hPa	46°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI	25 mi	21 min	WSW 7	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	47°F	44°F	90%	1001.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN

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