Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:07PM Friday August 23, 2019 5:46 PM CDT (22:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:59PMMoonset 1:18PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ146 Expires:201908201330;;930312 Fzus73 Kdlh 201308 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 808 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019 Lsz144>146-162-201330- 808 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019
.a strong Thunderstorm over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 807 am cdt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots, small hail, and frequent cloud to water lightning. This strong Thunderstorm was located near french river, or 12 nm east of duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 40 knots towards port wing. Locations impacted include... Brule point, herbster, and bayfield peninsula sea caves. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...cloud to water lightning strikes...small hail...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4678 9191 4693 9187 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4671 9163
LSZ146


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 232036
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
336 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019

Short term (this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 336 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
upper level ridging and surface high pressure over the northland
this afternoon will slowly move eastward on Saturday. Look for
clear mainly clear skies tonight and a gradual increase in cloud
cover for Saturday. No precipitation is expected. Lows tonight
will be in the middle 30s along the higher terrain of the north
shore and penokee hills in northwest wisconsin. Highs on Saturday
will reach the upper 60s near grand marais to the upper 70s in
north-central minnesota with low and middle 70s elsewhere. Cloud
cover will gradually increase Saturday night in response to an
approaching upper-level trough and surface cold front. Storms may
fire over the dakotas and southern canadian prairies Saturday
afternoon with cirrus spreading into our area. There is a slight
chance of a shower moving into north-central minnesota before 12z
Sunday. Lows Saturday night won’t be as cool with readings in
the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 336 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
wet fall like pattern through much of the extended. There will be
chances of showers on most days with thunderstorms possible on
Sunday, Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Cooling trend expected for
temperatures.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east
Sunday and Sunday night. This is a result of a shortwave embedded
within a larger trough lifting from the northern plains into the
upper mississippi river valley. There will be strong southerly
warm air advection, which will bring mild temperatures. There will
be broad ascent as the 250 hpa jet digs into the northern plains
from the pacific northwest. The strong ascent coupled with to mild
temperatures could bring some thunderstorms on Sunday. An
isolated severe storm or two isn't out of the question at deep
layer shear approaches 20-30 knots late on Sunday across north
central minnesota. This matches up with spcs current day 3 outlook
well. Expect the mildest temperatures in the extended on Sunday
with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.

The jet will continue digging into the northern plains on upper
midwest on Monday. This will become negatively tilted over the
region. At the surface low pressure will develop somewhere in
southern manitoba or western ontario. Anticipate widespread rain
ahead of the cold front associated with the low. There is an
opportunity where strong to severe storms will be possible. Warm,
moist air will continue to advect in due to southwesterly flow and
deep layer shear will be sufficient for severe storms. The
question at this point in time is the instability. Models show
500-1500 j kg of cape, but am a be skeptical of these values given
the amount of cloud cover expected. Will need to see how things
evolve as we get closer to Monday, but will be worth watching. At
this point in time looks like there will be a good chance for
heavy rain with totals of 1-1.5 inches from Sunday through Monday.

Suspect there will be some isolated 2 inch totals where
thunderstorms move through. Lowered precipitation totals from the
previous forecast as they seemed too high based on yesterdays and
todays QPF from deterministic and wpc guidance.

The cold front will slide through the northland late on Monday
into early Tuesday. The low will cutoff over ontario and rotate
north of the region through the rest of the extended. Expect cold
northwesterly flow through much of Tuesday and into Wednesday.

This setup typically brings scattered rain showers and suspect
there will be some instability on Tuesday which could bring a few
rumbles of thunder. The cutoff will begin lifting northwards
toward hudson bay on Wednesday. This will still bring scattered
rain showers, but it does not appear there will be sufficient
instability at this time for any thunder. Expect generally dry
conditions at this point in time on Thursday as the cutoff lifts
into hudson bay and high pressure builds into the mid mississippi
river valley. Expect the coolest readings on Wednesday and
Thursday with highs generally in the 60s.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1247 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
vfr conditions expected this afternoon and into this evening as
high pressure nudges in from lake superior. Diurnally driven
cumulus has developed with ceilings between 2.5 to 4kft per
observations. Suspect that if any MVFR ceilings develop it will be
short lived as the mixed layer grows and ceilings lift. Winds may
gust up to 15 knots this afternoon before the mixed layer
decouples this evening.

Diurnally driven cumulus will dissipate this evening as the sun
sets. Skies will generally be clear overnight with light winds.

This will result in radiation fog formation as was the case early
this morning. Utilized persistence coupled with the latest mos
guidance for a handle on timing and potentially the lowest
visibilities tonight. Expecting MVFR ifr conditions, but have
held off from lifr at this point in time as winds should be
slightly higher than last night with the high center further away.

This is not to say it isn't out of the question, but not
confident enough at this point to hone in on the best chance of
lifr. Expect fog to lift between 12z and 14z and conditions become
vfr again. There is an outside possibility that MVFR cumulus
develops mid to late in the morning before lifting above MVFR
limits like today.

Marine
Issued at 336 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
high pressure will remain firmly in place over the central great
lakes tonight. The high will slowly slide eastward into the
eastern great lakes by late on Saturday. Borderline small craft
advisory conditions will be present across the western tip of lake
superior early this evening. Northeast winds will diminish as the
night progresses. Expect east to northeast winds for much of
Saturday with speeds of 5-10 knots. Winds will shift to a
southerly direction late on Saturday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 49 74 54 75 0 0 0 10
inl 48 78 57 75 0 0 20 60
brd 53 78 58 75 0 0 0 30
hyr 44 75 52 76 0 0 0 10
asx 46 77 54 78 0 0 0 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement until 7 pm cdt this evening for wiz001.

Mn... Beach hazards statement until 7 pm cdt this evening for mnz037.

Ls... None.

Short term... Huyck
long term... Wl
aviation... Wl
marine... Wl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi47 min E 9.9 G 11 64°F 1025.5 hPa (-0.4)50°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi67 min NE 15 G 18 68°F 1023.7 hPa
45028 - Western Lake Superior 42 mi17 min ENE 16 G 16 63°F 66°F3 ft1024.1 hPa60°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi54 minN 1010.00 miFair69°F52°F55%1025.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASX

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7--NE4------Calm------CalmCalmSW3Calm--CalmCalm4N8N9N12N11NE10N10
1 day agoNW7NW4N4Calm--N7NW4--W3Calm--W3CalmW3N4N6NE7E8E5NE9N12NE8NE10NE10
2 days agoW6NW4N4----N5------SW6--W4W3SW5----W8W7NW10NW10W11--W10
G16
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.