Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morris, NY
October 3, 2023 12:45 AM EDT (04:45 UTC)
Sunrise 7:17AM Sunset 6:56PM Moonrise 7:55PM Moonset 11:39AM
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 030154 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 954 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue through much of this week with above normal to record and near record levels Tuesday through Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west late Friday and bring a period of unsettled and much cooler weather for the upcoming weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 952 PM EDT Monday...The forecast still remains pretty much on track this evening. Mid/high clouds to the north have been gradually eroding as they shift southward and encounter the ridge, but do expect they'll eventually make it into our region overnight. Temperatures are running a bit cooler than expected, with some spots only a couple of degrees above the forecasted low, so have bumped them down a little. No other changes were needed with this update.
Previous discussion...Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue across the North Country and Vermont for this forecast period through Tuesday night. On the synoptic scale, an expansive surface to upper level ridge over the Ohio/Mississippi Valley will be shifting eastward over the Atlantic Coast by the end of Tuesday, allowing an abnormally warm southwesterly flow to develop. 925mb warm considerably Tuesday to +16-18C supporting highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, a good 15-20 degrees above normal, and above to near record values for all of our climate sites (see climate section below). Overnight lows will be mild as well, in the low/mid 50s tonight, and mid/upper 50s Tuesday night, with dense river valley fog likely. Fog will be limited to the Connecticut River Valley tonight owing to increased low level winds, but will be much calmer again Tuesday night allowing for more widespread fog to develop.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 319 PM EDT Monday...The period of dry weather and above average temperatures will continue through this period as the center of high pressure will be almost overhead. Highs will be 15-20 degrees above average with temperatures rising well into the 80s in the valleys.
Record highs will be at risk again during the day. As the high shifts to the east overnight, southerly winds look to increase. The flow should keep the boundary layer mixed in many areas overnight.
This would prevent fog from forming and would cause low temperatures to be higher than the night before. Record high minimum temperatures are at risk for Wednesday night.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 319 PM EDT Monday...The warm and dry weather continues through Thursday, but it will not last long as an abrupt pattern change will occur this weekend. A significant cold front will move through and areas of low pressure will develop along it. Ensemble means generally have 1-2 inches of rain across the region by the start of next week. It also looks like we will be stuck under an upper level low during the beginning of next week so there will be plenty of clouds and shower chances. The cold front will also knock temperatures well below average. GEFS and Euro ensembles have probabilities of 850mb temperatures going below freezing at 50-70 percent at the start of next week. This would generally translate to temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s across most of the region.
However, this would bring temperatures down close to freezing in the higher peaks, and combined with abundant moisture from the upper level low, there could be the first snow showers of the season on the tops of the mountains.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. A few passing cirrus this evening with trend towards scattered mid clouds overnight for a brief period, then return to FEW200 after sunrise Wednesday. Winds look to pick up just off the surface overnight which will limit fog to just the Connecticut River Valley and not impact any TAF terminals. Winds will be light and variable through tonight, and trend WSW at 4-8kts tomorrow.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
CLIMATE
Daily maximum temperature record and forecast (in parentheses) Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 10-03 82(83)|1891 82(79)|1967 83(82)|1953 85(80)|1967 86(80)|1941 10-04 82(83)|1891 80(81)|2017 82(84)|1951 82(81)|1967 80(82)|1951 10-05 82(82)|1926 82(78)|1951 85(82)|1991 80(79)|2005 83(78)|1951
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 954 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue through much of this week with above normal to record and near record levels Tuesday through Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west late Friday and bring a period of unsettled and much cooler weather for the upcoming weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 952 PM EDT Monday...The forecast still remains pretty much on track this evening. Mid/high clouds to the north have been gradually eroding as they shift southward and encounter the ridge, but do expect they'll eventually make it into our region overnight. Temperatures are running a bit cooler than expected, with some spots only a couple of degrees above the forecasted low, so have bumped them down a little. No other changes were needed with this update.
Previous discussion...Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue across the North Country and Vermont for this forecast period through Tuesday night. On the synoptic scale, an expansive surface to upper level ridge over the Ohio/Mississippi Valley will be shifting eastward over the Atlantic Coast by the end of Tuesday, allowing an abnormally warm southwesterly flow to develop. 925mb warm considerably Tuesday to +16-18C supporting highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, a good 15-20 degrees above normal, and above to near record values for all of our climate sites (see climate section below). Overnight lows will be mild as well, in the low/mid 50s tonight, and mid/upper 50s Tuesday night, with dense river valley fog likely. Fog will be limited to the Connecticut River Valley tonight owing to increased low level winds, but will be much calmer again Tuesday night allowing for more widespread fog to develop.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 319 PM EDT Monday...The period of dry weather and above average temperatures will continue through this period as the center of high pressure will be almost overhead. Highs will be 15-20 degrees above average with temperatures rising well into the 80s in the valleys.
Record highs will be at risk again during the day. As the high shifts to the east overnight, southerly winds look to increase. The flow should keep the boundary layer mixed in many areas overnight.
This would prevent fog from forming and would cause low temperatures to be higher than the night before. Record high minimum temperatures are at risk for Wednesday night.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 319 PM EDT Monday...The warm and dry weather continues through Thursday, but it will not last long as an abrupt pattern change will occur this weekend. A significant cold front will move through and areas of low pressure will develop along it. Ensemble means generally have 1-2 inches of rain across the region by the start of next week. It also looks like we will be stuck under an upper level low during the beginning of next week so there will be plenty of clouds and shower chances. The cold front will also knock temperatures well below average. GEFS and Euro ensembles have probabilities of 850mb temperatures going below freezing at 50-70 percent at the start of next week. This would generally translate to temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s across most of the region.
However, this would bring temperatures down close to freezing in the higher peaks, and combined with abundant moisture from the upper level low, there could be the first snow showers of the season on the tops of the mountains.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. A few passing cirrus this evening with trend towards scattered mid clouds overnight for a brief period, then return to FEW200 after sunrise Wednesday. Winds look to pick up just off the surface overnight which will limit fog to just the Connecticut River Valley and not impact any TAF terminals. Winds will be light and variable through tonight, and trend WSW at 4-8kts tomorrow.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
CLIMATE
Daily maximum temperature record and forecast (in parentheses) Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 10-03 82(83)|1891 82(79)|1967 83(82)|1953 85(80)|1967 86(80)|1941 10-04 82(83)|1891 80(81)|2017 82(84)|1951 82(81)|1967 80(82)|1951 10-05 82(82)|1926 82(78)|1951 85(82)|1991 80(79)|2005 83(78)|1951
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
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