Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morris, NY

KEY MESSAGES
As of 207 PM EDT Saturday...

1. A chilly overnight period tonight will be followed by quiet and dry weather well into mid week.

2. High probability of dry weather and seasonable temperatures continuing through next weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 207 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Ridging will begin to nose in this evening with the approach of an anomalously strong area of high pressure building over the Midwest. This 1037mb high will slide east tonight continuing to dry out the region, and leading to a cold start to Sunday. Tonight will be the coldest night of the forecast period as winds abate and skies become mainly clear. Contrary to previous forecasts, new guidance has trended towards slightly warmer lows for tonight, albeit still cold for this time of year. Lows in the mid to upper 20s are expected for the Adirondacks and east of the Greens with low 30s elsewhere. A weak shortwave will ride north of our area, but could bring some increased mid clouds to portions of the the Adirondacks and near the International Border, stifling strong radiational cooling. Many sites will still fall below freezing tonight regardless of cloud coverage due to ongoing advective cold processes under light west winds. Wind by tomorrow morning will turn slightly southwesterly drawing slightly warmer air into the region helping to rebound our temperatures with highs tomorrow into the mid 50s. Some light breezes around 10-15 mph in the wider valleys will be possible tomorrow as well.

Southwest flow will continue to advect some warmer air in by Monday as highs reach their peak for the week, into the upper 50s to low 60s across the area with clear skies. Through the entire near and short term period towards mid week, there is high confidence in no precipitation areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Large scale upper level ridging either upstream or overhead from Tuesday night through Saturday will bring us seasonable temperatures and mainly clear skies as low humidity and light wind dominates the period. One exception to the completely quiet weather will probably be associated with a moisture-starved cold front on Thursday, which could bring a band of clouds through the region and support a modest north wind into Friday. Our quasi- stationary weather pattern will include an ocean storm well to our south and east while Canadian/polar lows track well to our east and north, keeping any unseasonable cold locked up as well as any push of warm air from the southwest from moving in.

Note ensemble guidance does show a very low (6 hourly PoP peaking near 10%) chance of rain squeaking into southeastern portions of Windsor County early Thursday in the event, probably associated with the aforementioned ocean storm if it was to track much farther west than the strong consensus.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...Mainly a wind forecast with VFR conditions prevailing. A possible exception is for SLK, where a lake-induced cloud layer could form due to cold westerly flow off of the eastern Great Lakes. It is currently favored to arrive roughly 09Z and possibly linger at times through about 17Z; cloud bases will likely be in the MVFR range at about 1500-3000 feet if ceilings develop.
Otherwise, diurnally driven clouds early in the period will trend SKC at most sites. Gusty west to northwest winds will likewise diminish towards sunset. Overnight, light winds will trend southwesterly to southerly and increase to around 10 knots by 15-17Z at MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV, with gusts near or above 20 knots towards the end of the period favored at MSS and BTV.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.