Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morris, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 126 AM EDT Friday...Only a few minor adjustments needed to the forecast with this update. Patchy mist and fog have begun to develop across the region, with some areas of reduced visibilities.
Temperatures continue to remain mild, with most locations in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Previous Discussion...Mainly pinprick showers have developed along lines of HRRR guidance. A larger cluster has formed over Rutland County and has anchored to terrain with limited motion.
About 2/3rds of an inch have fallen over various sites around the storms, but where there has likely been the most over Clark and Bird Mountains where radar is estimating 1.25" has fallen, there are no sites to provide ground truth, unfortunately. With shear only around 10, no synoptic forcing, and poor lapse rates, any storms will remain garden variety with erratic motions that could result in additional precipitation bulls-eyes. Activity will diminish slowly tonight. There's still some elevated instability lingering. However, there's no mid- level warm advection or increasing southerly flow. Convective activity could sporadically increase at times overnight, but the trend will be decreasing coverage. Unfortunately, another humid night in the mid 50s to mid 60s is expected.

Friday continues to appear more active with better convective parameters across the board with upper 70s to lower 80s and 60s dewpoints. Another trough will provide marginal synoptic forcing. Forecast skew-Ts still suggest tall, skinny CAPE profiles with low shear across the region. It will take until mid-afternoon for the region to destabilize. So the best chances for showers and storms will be in our climatological 1-10 PM window. Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be the main concern for Friday. The trough will depart after midnight, but increasing warm advection behind it and present of a nocturnal LLJ may allow for a few pinprick showers or storms to linger overnight. Little change to warmth and humidity will keep overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s another night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...An upper level low slowly makes its way into the region over the weekend, pushing through a few fronts/troughs on Saturday. There look to be broken rounds of showers and thunderstorms associated with these features, with some gaps in between. The first round should move into northern New York in the early morning and Vermont in the late morning.
It does not look like a significant amount of instability will develop before this round comes through, so any storms should be under severe levels. There looks to be at least a partial gap in the afternoon before another broken line comes through later in the day. Adequate shear should be in place, but it will be relatively weakly forced and there are questions on how much instability will develop. If adequate clearing can occur between the lines, there is a low severe chance for the second line, and the SPC has therefore placed the region in the Marginal risk. East of the Greens, southeast flow will keep a cooler marine modified airmass in place and may prevent any thunderstorms from forming at all. There will be favorable conditions for heavy rain with any storms that develop, though there looks to be decent storm motion so any consistently training looks unlikely. However, the threat of flash flooding cannot be completely ruled out. As the low passes overhead and to the east, moist northwest flow develops on the backside for Sunday. There will be upslope showers throughout much of the day. Temperatures will also be much cooler, with highs in the 50s and low 60s for most places. The low looks to slow down once it moves off the coast so these showers may continue into Monday, especially across eastern areas. Conditions will still be too warm for snow at any of the high peaks.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...A much cooler pattern will continue for next week as northerly cyclonic flow looks to dominate. A few showers are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple weak shortwaves look to pivot around the upper low to the east, but it should remain mostly dry. A slow moving nor'easter will make a run at the region for mid and late week, and while its exact track and speed are still uncertain, there is again the potential for an extended period of steady rain. Temperatures may be cold enough during it that the highest peaks see a little bit of snow. If the wetter solutions verify, highs may be in the 50s for most areas. Even if this surface low misses to the east, there will be a cold upper level low on the western side so there will likely be some afternoon showers regardless. The cooler and unsettled weather looks to continue into the weekend, though it will likely not be a consistent steady rain.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06Z SATURDAY...VFR conditions are currently prevailing across the region at this hour, with calm or light terrain- driven winds. Despite the VFR conditions, patchy mist and fog developing across the region will bring some reduced visibilities, which continue through about 12Z with conditions rapidly improving after sunrise. Given the patchiness of the fog and uncertainty in persistence, TEMPO groups were utilized in the forecast. Once the fog dissipates towards 12Z, VFR conditions should prevail once again. Shower activity will increase throughout the afternoon, with some possible embedded thunderstorms, with some heavier showers possibly bringing reduced flight conditions at times. Winds will generally be southerly between 5 and 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.