Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cliffdell, WA
March 28, 2024 9:26 AM PDT (16:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:45 AM Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 10:37 PM Moonset 7:00 AM |
PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 613 Am Pdt Thu Mar 28 2024
Today - S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight - S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri - S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night - N wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sat - N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night - N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Sun - N wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Mon - Light wind becoming sw to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 613 Am Pdt Thu Mar 28 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A surface low continues to churn over the offshore waters. Winds will remain breezy at times as this disturbance tracks closer to the region through Friday. High pressure will then form in its wake for the weekend and beginning of next week.
Area Discussion for - Pendleton, OR
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FXUS66 KPDT 281616 AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 916 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SHORT TERM UPDATE
It will be another day of rain and mountain showers as the forecast area lies under a broad cyclonic flow that extends from the eastern Pacific across the western U.S. Mid-lapse rates are currently 7.5C/km, based on SPC Mesoscale Analysis. Due to more instability today, there is a slightly better chance for thunderstorms compared to yesterday. SBCAPES from CAMs are around 150-200 J/kg along with 30kts of shear between 0-6km. However, the composite reflectivity progs from the HRRR members are not impressive and the probability of lightning is only around 20%.
Some of these showers could bring brief periods of moderate precipitation, and this includes the snow in the mountains. This was observed yesterday with showers that developed over the northern Blues and the foothills. Special weather statements may be required if heavy showers develop. Wister/85
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 449 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
Updated Aviation Discussion.
SHORT TERM
Today through Saturday night
A deep, closed upper-level low continues to churn in the Pacific, currently centered at roughly 47N, 131W, about 350 miles offshore. Isolated light shower activity is evident on radar, but most areas will remain dry into morning. Ensemble and deterministic NWP guidance are in excellent agreement that the upper low will remain stalled offshore through the day with the forecast area under a west to southwest flow aloft. The main talking point for today's forecast is another round of showers for the forecast area, focused mostly on the mountains with 75-100% PoPs for the Cascades, 55-85% PoPs for the Blues, with lower chances for the foothills and lower elevations (mostly 25-50% PoPs). With steepening low- and mid- level lapse rates this afternoon, and 00Z HRRR-advertised MUCAPE of roughly 200-400 J/kg, have opted to include a slight chance mention of thunder with afternoon and evening shower activity for the Blue Mountains and adjacent foothills. Soundings suggest shallow convection with echo tops of 20-25 kft, and NBM probabilities are low (10-20%) for thunder at any given location.
Friday, confidence is high (>95% chance) that the upper-level low offshore will fill and weaken while a secondary vorticity max sliding down from the northwest prompts the development of a new circulation off the California coast. Another round of isolated afternoon showers is forecast for the mountains and foothills with drier conditions (aside from a 5-15% chance of isolated showers in the mountains on Saturday afternoon) returning for Friday night through Saturday night. Plunkett/86
LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday
The extended period is characterized by an upper level ridge building through Monday before a pair of shortwaves midweek bring a return to rain and high elevation mountain snow chances to the area. The ridge will bring a quick warming trend through Tuesday as high temperatures may break into the low to mid-70s across lower elevations of the Basin. The primary weather concern during this period resides with elevated winds across Central Oregon and the Grande Ronde Valley Sunday, with breezy conditions returning Wednesday along the Columbia Basin, Eastern Gorge, and the Kittitas Valley.
Deterministic models and 51% of ensemble members highlight an upper level shortwave diving south early Sunday, ahead of the building upper level ridge that encroaches into the Pacific Northwest from the west late Sunday into Monday. This synoptic feature will bring breezy north winds across the area, but will also produce a pressure gradient across Blue Mountains. The GFS showcases a 4.15 mb difference between Meacham and Baker City Sunday afternoon, which correlates to gusts of 25-30 mph.
Confidence in these wind gusts are moderate to high (60-80%) as the NBM highlights an 82% and 85% chance of 25 mph gusts at John Day and La Grande, respectively. Elevated winds may also extend further west, as the NBM suggests a 55-60% chance of 25 mph wind gusts reaching the Bend/Redmond area Sunday afternoon.
Ensembles are in good agreement regarding the upper level ridge building in from the west Sunday afternoon through Monday. This will relate to high temperatures reaching into the 70s for lower elevations of the Basin Monday and Tuesday before the ridge shifts east and weakens. Models and ensemble members are also in agreement that Tuesday will be the warmest day, as the NBM suggests 76 degrees in the Tri-Cities, 74 in Hermiston, and 73 for Yakima and Pendleton - which is 10-13 degrees above normal.
Confidence in these high temperatures are moderate to high (75-90%) as the ECMWF EFI showcases above climatological high temperatures across the area, and the NBM highlights a 85-95% chance of highs reaching 70 degrees or above across the Basin.
The upper level ridge weakens and slides east as a weak shortwave passes to our north late Tuesday ahead of a stronger shortwave poised to move onshore Wednesday afternoon. The first shortwave will allow for a chance (15-40%) of precipitation over our mountain zones Tuesday afternoon before chances sneak down to lower elevations of the foothills and east slopes on Wednesday with the arrival of the stronger shortwave. Limited moisture will be present with either feature, with the main impact being elevated winds through the Basin, Gorge, and Kittitas Valley.
Gusts of 30-40 mph out of the west will be possible as the NBM suggests a 50-70% chance of wind gusts of 40 mph or greater across the Simcoe Highlands, Eastern Gorge, Blue Mountain foothills, and the Yakima/Kittitas Valleys. Confidence in these wind gusts is moderate (50-60%) as the GFS highlights a 12 mb pressure gradient setting up between Portland and Spokane and ECMWF ensembles suggest a 6-hour max gust of 38 mph at the Dalles Wednesday afternoon/early evening.
The uncertainty is timing and strength of the ridge and subsequent shortwaves, as the ECMWF brings a much more substantial shortwave through midweek along with a weaker ridge early in the period.
This would relate to cooler and windier conditions with the ECMWF than the GFS. Current analysis between deterministic and ensemble solutions do align more with the ECMWF result via the cluster phase space. Thus, the NBM was utilized through the extended period to provide an applicably weighted scenario. 75
AVIATION
12Z TAFS
VFR Conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Light showers will linger through the morning for KALW and extend into the early evening. Light showers will also be possible for KPDT and KDLS through the afternoon before dissipating into the early evening.
These showers will drop ceilings to between 5kft-7kft, but will improve to 10kft toward the end of the period. Winds will increase in the afternoon for KRDM/KBDN/KYKM to 20-25kts out of the southwest, and will linger through much of the evening for KYKM. 75
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 54 33 54 32 / 40 30 20 0 ALW 56 37 57 34 / 50 40 40 10 PSC 61 39 61 36 / 20 10 0 0 YKM 56 33 59 30 / 20 10 10 0 HRI 60 35 59 34 / 20 20 10 0 ELN 53 31 56 30 / 30 20 10 0 RDM 50 30 52 27 / 30 20 10 10 LGD 50 31 51 31 / 60 60 40 10 GCD 48 29 50 29 / 60 40 40 10 DLS 56 38 59 37 / 60 30 10 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 916 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SHORT TERM UPDATE
It will be another day of rain and mountain showers as the forecast area lies under a broad cyclonic flow that extends from the eastern Pacific across the western U.S. Mid-lapse rates are currently 7.5C/km, based on SPC Mesoscale Analysis. Due to more instability today, there is a slightly better chance for thunderstorms compared to yesterday. SBCAPES from CAMs are around 150-200 J/kg along with 30kts of shear between 0-6km. However, the composite reflectivity progs from the HRRR members are not impressive and the probability of lightning is only around 20%.
Some of these showers could bring brief periods of moderate precipitation, and this includes the snow in the mountains. This was observed yesterday with showers that developed over the northern Blues and the foothills. Special weather statements may be required if heavy showers develop. Wister/85
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 449 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
Updated Aviation Discussion.
SHORT TERM
Today through Saturday night
A deep, closed upper-level low continues to churn in the Pacific, currently centered at roughly 47N, 131W, about 350 miles offshore. Isolated light shower activity is evident on radar, but most areas will remain dry into morning. Ensemble and deterministic NWP guidance are in excellent agreement that the upper low will remain stalled offshore through the day with the forecast area under a west to southwest flow aloft. The main talking point for today's forecast is another round of showers for the forecast area, focused mostly on the mountains with 75-100% PoPs for the Cascades, 55-85% PoPs for the Blues, with lower chances for the foothills and lower elevations (mostly 25-50% PoPs). With steepening low- and mid- level lapse rates this afternoon, and 00Z HRRR-advertised MUCAPE of roughly 200-400 J/kg, have opted to include a slight chance mention of thunder with afternoon and evening shower activity for the Blue Mountains and adjacent foothills. Soundings suggest shallow convection with echo tops of 20-25 kft, and NBM probabilities are low (10-20%) for thunder at any given location.
Friday, confidence is high (>95% chance) that the upper-level low offshore will fill and weaken while a secondary vorticity max sliding down from the northwest prompts the development of a new circulation off the California coast. Another round of isolated afternoon showers is forecast for the mountains and foothills with drier conditions (aside from a 5-15% chance of isolated showers in the mountains on Saturday afternoon) returning for Friday night through Saturday night. Plunkett/86
LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday
The extended period is characterized by an upper level ridge building through Monday before a pair of shortwaves midweek bring a return to rain and high elevation mountain snow chances to the area. The ridge will bring a quick warming trend through Tuesday as high temperatures may break into the low to mid-70s across lower elevations of the Basin. The primary weather concern during this period resides with elevated winds across Central Oregon and the Grande Ronde Valley Sunday, with breezy conditions returning Wednesday along the Columbia Basin, Eastern Gorge, and the Kittitas Valley.
Deterministic models and 51% of ensemble members highlight an upper level shortwave diving south early Sunday, ahead of the building upper level ridge that encroaches into the Pacific Northwest from the west late Sunday into Monday. This synoptic feature will bring breezy north winds across the area, but will also produce a pressure gradient across Blue Mountains. The GFS showcases a 4.15 mb difference between Meacham and Baker City Sunday afternoon, which correlates to gusts of 25-30 mph.
Confidence in these wind gusts are moderate to high (60-80%) as the NBM highlights an 82% and 85% chance of 25 mph gusts at John Day and La Grande, respectively. Elevated winds may also extend further west, as the NBM suggests a 55-60% chance of 25 mph wind gusts reaching the Bend/Redmond area Sunday afternoon.
Ensembles are in good agreement regarding the upper level ridge building in from the west Sunday afternoon through Monday. This will relate to high temperatures reaching into the 70s for lower elevations of the Basin Monday and Tuesday before the ridge shifts east and weakens. Models and ensemble members are also in agreement that Tuesday will be the warmest day, as the NBM suggests 76 degrees in the Tri-Cities, 74 in Hermiston, and 73 for Yakima and Pendleton - which is 10-13 degrees above normal.
Confidence in these high temperatures are moderate to high (75-90%) as the ECMWF EFI showcases above climatological high temperatures across the area, and the NBM highlights a 85-95% chance of highs reaching 70 degrees or above across the Basin.
The upper level ridge weakens and slides east as a weak shortwave passes to our north late Tuesday ahead of a stronger shortwave poised to move onshore Wednesday afternoon. The first shortwave will allow for a chance (15-40%) of precipitation over our mountain zones Tuesday afternoon before chances sneak down to lower elevations of the foothills and east slopes on Wednesday with the arrival of the stronger shortwave. Limited moisture will be present with either feature, with the main impact being elevated winds through the Basin, Gorge, and Kittitas Valley.
Gusts of 30-40 mph out of the west will be possible as the NBM suggests a 50-70% chance of wind gusts of 40 mph or greater across the Simcoe Highlands, Eastern Gorge, Blue Mountain foothills, and the Yakima/Kittitas Valleys. Confidence in these wind gusts is moderate (50-60%) as the GFS highlights a 12 mb pressure gradient setting up between Portland and Spokane and ECMWF ensembles suggest a 6-hour max gust of 38 mph at the Dalles Wednesday afternoon/early evening.
The uncertainty is timing and strength of the ridge and subsequent shortwaves, as the ECMWF brings a much more substantial shortwave through midweek along with a weaker ridge early in the period.
This would relate to cooler and windier conditions with the ECMWF than the GFS. Current analysis between deterministic and ensemble solutions do align more with the ECMWF result via the cluster phase space. Thus, the NBM was utilized through the extended period to provide an applicably weighted scenario. 75
AVIATION
12Z TAFS
VFR Conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Light showers will linger through the morning for KALW and extend into the early evening. Light showers will also be possible for KPDT and KDLS through the afternoon before dissipating into the early evening.
These showers will drop ceilings to between 5kft-7kft, but will improve to 10kft toward the end of the period. Winds will increase in the afternoon for KRDM/KBDN/KYKM to 20-25kts out of the southwest, and will linger through much of the evening for KYKM. 75
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 54 33 54 32 / 40 30 20 0 ALW 56 37 57 34 / 50 40 40 10 PSC 61 39 61 36 / 20 10 0 0 YKM 56 33 59 30 / 20 10 10 0 HRI 60 35 59 34 / 20 20 10 0 ELN 53 31 56 30 / 30 20 10 0 RDM 50 30 52 27 / 30 20 10 10 LGD 50 31 51 31 / 60 60 40 10 GCD 48 29 50 29 / 60 40 40 10 DLS 56 38 59 37 / 60 30 10 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA | 67 mi | 56 min | ENE 1G | 45°F | ||||
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA | 67 mi | 56 min | 49°F | 29.74 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Des Moines
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:30 AM PDT 4.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM PDT 10.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 AM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:55 PM PDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:34 PM PDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:40 PM PDT 10.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:43 PM PDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:30 AM PDT 4.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM PDT 10.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 AM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:55 PM PDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:34 PM PDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:40 PM PDT 10.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:43 PM PDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Des Moines, Washington, Tide feet
12 am |
5.9 |
1 am |
5 |
2 am |
5 |
3 am |
5.9 |
4 am |
7.5 |
5 am |
9.1 |
6 am |
10.4 |
7 am |
10.9 |
8 am |
10.5 |
9 am |
9.1 |
10 am |
7 |
11 am |
4.7 |
12 pm |
2.5 |
1 pm |
0.9 |
2 pm |
0.4 |
3 pm |
1.1 |
4 pm |
2.9 |
5 pm |
5.1 |
6 pm |
7.5 |
7 pm |
9.3 |
8 pm |
10.4 |
9 pm |
10.6 |
10 pm |
10 |
11 pm |
8.8 |
Tacoma
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:30 AM PDT 4.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM PDT 11.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 AM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:55 PM PDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:34 PM PDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:42 PM PDT 10.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:43 PM PDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:30 AM PDT 4.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM PDT 11.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 AM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:55 PM PDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:34 PM PDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:42 PM PDT 10.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:43 PM PDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tacoma, Commencement Bay, Washington, Tide feet
12 am |
5.9 |
1 am |
5 |
2 am |
5 |
3 am |
5.9 |
4 am |
7.5 |
5 am |
9.2 |
6 am |
10.5 |
7 am |
11.1 |
8 am |
10.6 |
9 am |
9.2 |
10 am |
7.2 |
11 am |
4.8 |
12 pm |
2.5 |
1 pm |
0.9 |
2 pm |
0.4 |
3 pm |
1.1 |
4 pm |
2.9 |
5 pm |
5.2 |
6 pm |
7.5 |
7 pm |
9.4 |
8 pm |
10.5 |
9 pm |
10.7 |
10 pm |
10.1 |
11 pm |
8.9 |
Seattle/Tacoma, WA,
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