Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neihart, MT

DISCUSSION

- Meteorological Overview:

Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring isolated showers into the overnight hours. As these showers wind down early Friday morning, dry and warm weather settle in for the day Friday. There is a low end chance for patchy fog to develop across North-Central MT Friday morning in areas that got some moisture from showers and where better clearing in the clouds occur. Another shortwave trough moving through Friday evening through Saturday afternoon will bring another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, primarily to North-Central MT.

As this shortwave exits, drier and warmer conditions settle in Sunday into at least the first half of next week as upper-level ridging builds in. This ridge will break down at times, particular late Sunday into Monday. This will bring breezy winds, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. Models start to diverge by mid-week. The GFS keeps the ridging and warm weather across the region, and keeps chances for precipitation in Southwest MT. The European models has a better synoptic system mid week, bringing cooler temperatures and broader chances for precipitation.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Today's showers and isolated thunderstorms look to be the typical spring time showers. Areas that get a few moderate showers can get 0.05" to 0.10" of moisture. Showers and thunderstorms will also be capable of producing gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph.

The ridge break down late Sunday into Monday morning brings a mid-level jet in. So far the strength of this jet and the timing being during the overnight hours lessens the concern for high winds at this time. -Wilson

AVIATION
08/06Z TAF Period

The primary concern will be widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity slowly diminishing and ending over central/north-central MT through 08/12Z. Another shortwave trough brings more scattered showers and storms, generally after 08/20Z. VFR conditions will generally prevail for much of the period, but there will be some patchy fog over the river valleys between 08/09 and 08/16Z and MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration increase over central/north- central MT after 09/06Z when the aforementioned shower/thunder activity becomes more widespread heading towards Saturday morning. - RCG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 66 43 76 50 / 60 30 0 30 CTB 65 40 74 46 / 20 40 0 50 HLN 64 41 76 46 / 50 10 0 20 BZN 67 37 73 41 / 20 20 0 20 WYS 64 31 68 35 / 20 0 0 10 DLN 70 38 72 40 / 10 0 0 10 HVR 72 39 79 46 / 20 0 0 70 LWT 63 39 72 44 / 50 10 0 70

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.