NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 951 PM EDT Sunday...No changes needed with this update.
Clear skies abound across the region, as this should be the rule overnight. The exception will be patchy valley fog, which may not be quite as extensive as the past couple of nights owing to a 25 kt low-level jet. Lows will range from the upper 40s to the upper 50s. The forecast has this all covered and remains on track.

Previous discussion...Another beautiful afternoon acrs the fa with plenty of sunshine and temps warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s. We have reached 85F here as of 3 PM, as some slightly drier air aloft has mixed toward the sfc resulting in dwpts 2 to 8 degrees lower today. This wl result in a delay for fog/br development acrs our climo favored valleys tonight.
Expect fog between 06-12z in valleys as temps cool back into the mid/upper 40s SLK/NEK to near 60F CPV and parts of the SLV. For Monday, mid/upper lvl ridge remains overhead, along with plenty of dry air. Sounding profiles suggest mixing of dry air near 850mb toward the sfc again, so have trended toward the 10% NBM dwpts btwn 17-21z Monday. Aftn min rh's range from the mid 30s to mid 40s depending upon location/elevation. This dry air should help for our temps to overachieve slightly, so have trended toward the 75% NBM for highs. This is supported by progged 925mb temps near 20C, supporting highs upper 70s to mid 80s. I have 86F here at BTV. Little change on Monday night with mostly clear skies and light winds, should allow for fog develop by 06z acrs many of our climo favored valleys. Lows slightly warmer, given the warmer daytime highs with values in the upper 40s/lower 50s to lower/mid 60s CPV/urban heat islands.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...While high pressure remains over the area, Tuesday will see a slow creep of higher level clouds from the low pressure system currently off the coast of the Carolinas. The high pressure will continue to win out as we'll have another mostly sunny day with some thin could coverage overnight which looks to lead to another night of favorable fog conditions.

Daytime highs for Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...The aforementioned low pressure down by the Carolinas will will move inland and north towards Southern New England Wednesday into Thursday, bringing some slight chances for showers for Southern and Central Vermont during the overnight hours.
Models are indicating that the low will try to battle the ridging over our area for a couple days, but right now, it looks like the ridge will win out and continue to keep most of the CWA dry during the back half of the week. Some models hint at a backdoor front on Friday, but right now the moisture with it does not look impressive but could bring some weak showers during the day.

While temperaturewise we will continue to remain unseasonably warm, we will see a cooling trend with highs in the low to mid 80s mid week, dropping to the mid to upper 70s by the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the 60s to start and trending to the mid 40s to mid 50s by the weekend.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Tuesday...Tricky forecast overnight/early Monday with respect to potential extent of fog. VFR conditions will prevail under clear skies through 06z, then expect patchy valley fog to develop thereafter. South low-level jet AOB 1000 ft will limit fog potential to mainly the climatologically favored sites of KSLK/KMPV. Still, have delayed the start time for any vis/ceiling restrictions at these two terminals, though still anticipate IFR/LIFR periodically after 07z, and prevailing 09z-12z.
Elsewhere, fog will be more transient at KEFK/KMSS, with periods of MVFR/IFR possible 08z-12z. No fog is expected at KBTV/KPBG/KRUT. Outside of fog, SKC-FEW sky conditions with VFR to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Light and mainly terrain driven winds overnight, except SE 5-10 kt at KRUT through 14z. Light and variable winds continue at all terminals thereafter except KPBG/KBTV, where SE/S winds 8-10 kt are expected, respectively.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.