Wednesday, April14, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ogdensburg, NY

Version 3.4
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:01PM Wednesday April 14, 2021 7:21 AM EDT (11:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:44AMMoonset 9:46PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ogdensburg, NY
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 406 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

SYNOPSIS. A few rain showers will be possible this afternoon, but overall expect a dry day as our region remains trapped between two upper level lows. The westerly upper low will move into our region Thursday bringing our next chance for rain across the North Country. The rain will change over to snow at higher elevations overnight Thursday night and Friday with some accumulation possible. Drier conditions will return over the weekend as high pressure builds in over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday . Ridging remains in place today, but upper low pressure will begin to approach from the west tonight and tomorrow, bringing widespread precipitation as we head into the second half of the week. Today, although forcing is weak with little flow, increasing moisture ahead of the incoming low along with daytime heating and orographic effects will result in isolated to scattered shower development this afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain. The showers that do pop up will drift north to northeastward before quickly decaying. Once the sunsets and daytime heating is lost, showers will wane in coverage and intensity. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 60s to around 70.

Steadier precipitation begins to spread northward overnight tonight into Thursday as the aforementioned upper low pinwheels from the upper Great Lakes into western NY. Meanwhile, surface low pressure will develop off the Delmarva coast and lift northward along the coast, with a trough extending back into eastern Ontario. The resultant southeast flow will bring an influx of moisture, and increasing dynamic forcing will result in a swath of precipitation that will spread across the North Country from southwest to northeast late Wednesday night into Thursday. Tonight's lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, so the precipitation will start out as rain. It will remain so for most areas through the day Thursday, but as the cold pool aloft moves in late in the day, the higher elevations will see the rain mix with and eventually change over to snow, mainly above 2000 ft. The highest peaks could see an inch or two of accumulation by evening, but overall little to no accumulation is expected through the daylight hours.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday . Overall little change made to the previous forecast in regard to precipitation chances, but confidence is increasing that we'll see a moderate QPF/snow event across central/southern portions of the area Thursday night through Friday. As the aforementioned upper low becomes more negatively tilted and taps into increased moisture associated with a developing surface low off the southern New England coast, we should see precipitation become more widespread across the forecast area through the night with some banding possible across central/southern VT. Through the night thermal profiles support a changeover to snow above 1000 feet with a rain/snow mix in the broader valleys, but as the boundary layer warms during the day Friday snow will be more confined above 1500- 2000 feet before tapering off Friday night as the system become more vertically stacked and shifts offshore.

The 00Z NWP suite continued on with yesterdays northward trend of higher QPF with 24-hour 50th percentile probabilistic amounts of 0.57-1" south of I-89 and over portions of the eastern Adirondacks, with 0.5-0.75" northward albeit slightly higher on the eastern upslope regions of the northern Greens. Snow density is expected to be quite low given the amount of QPF and warm boundary layer temps, with mean SLR's of 8-10:1 yielding very elevationally dependent snow amounts. Below 1000 feet our initial thinking is a dusting to perhaps an inch of very wet snow, with 3-6" up to 2000 feet, and 6- 10" up to the summit peaks. Given the greatest accumulations will be limited to the highest elevations, overall impacts will be low outside of hazardous travel over the several gap roads through the state forest such as Lincoln Gap and Routes 125 and 73. But, given the uncertainty still at play with 75th percentile probabilistic snowfall amounts above warning criteria, we'll hoist a winter storm watch for the high terrain of eastern Addison, eastern Rutland and western Windsor counties of Vermont.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday . The weekend outlook continues to look generally dry with perhaps some lingering showers early Saturday morning. Temps remain seasonally cool on Saturday under modest northerly flow, but return to normal or slightly above for Sunday with some weak ridging building in aloft. Early next week chances for rain showers return as another upper low dropping southward from James Bay will drag a frontal boundary into the Great Lakes and Northeast states. Temps remain seasonally warm with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Through 06Z Thursday . VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the next 24 hours with scattered-broken ceilings AOA 5000 ft. Winds will be light and variable becoming northerly again tomorrow at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers will develop Wednesday afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain. Mostly likely affected terminals will be KRUT, KSLK, and KMPV, but given the lack of extensive coverage, have stayed with just VCSH for now.

Outlook .

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Definite SN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for VTZ012-018-019. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Hastings NEAR TERM . Hastings SHORT TERM . Lahiff LONG TERM . Lahiff AVIATION . Hastings

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