Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ogdensburg, NY

Version 3.4
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 4:19PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 12:43 AM EST (05:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:40PMMoonset 5:49AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ogdensburg, NY
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location: 46.95, -78.02     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1236 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Occasional showers with areas of patchy fog will persist overnight with temperatures holding steady in the upper 30s to mid 40s. After a warm start on Tuesday, a cold front will sweep across the region and bring cooler temperatures and scattered mountain snow showers. Temperatures start in the mid 40s to near 50, but drop back into the 30s by evening. Scattered snow showers and much cooler temperatures will prevail on Wednesday with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1228 AM EST Tuesday . The steadiest rain has exited our forecast area for now, but seeing additional showers just upstream across NY. These should move eastward across portions of the North Country through the early morning hours. Otherwise, windy and mild conditions continue; temperatures are currently in the mid and upper 40s in most locations. Expect temperatures to hold steady or rise slightly through daybreak or so ahead of an incoming cold front. The forecast has this all pretty much covered, so just made some minor tweaks to PoPs and sky cover to match the latest radar and satellite trends with this update.

Previous Discussion . Water vapor shows progressive southwest flow aloft prevailing with enhanced deeper moisture advecting ahead of s/w energy from the Ohio Valley into the NE Conus. Radar shows expanding light rain showers acrs most of the fa, but as 925mb to 850mb wind fields continue to strengthen again this evening, expect downslope shadowing to prevail acrs the cpv. NAM 3km shows 925mb winds increasing to 40 to 50 knots with enhanced channeling in the valley, while 850mb low level jet couplet of 55 to 70 knots angles acrs central/southern VT btwn 21z- 03z. Soundings show much greater stability this evening, with limited mixing potential, so a few localized gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range is possible. The combination of snow pack and precip will limit mixing. Next question will bl stay well enough mixed to limit fog development as warm/moist air moves over relatively cold snow pack. Soundings profiles show more stratus type profiles over northern NY with 1000 to 2000 feet winds of 25 to 35 knots, while shallow inversion and saturated bl conditions will help with areas of fog/br development in central/eastern and northern VT zones. Lows generally remain steady or rise overnight with readings upper 30s to mid 40s most locations. Some locations in the CPV and SLV could be near 50f overnight into early Tues. QPF ranges from 0.10 PBG/BTV to 0.75 high peaks into eastern upslope regions of the central/southern Greens.

Tuesday . Sharp cold front will be approaching the SLV by 12z, as deeper 850 to 500mb moisture fields are shifting into eastern New England. Any lingering showers should be confined mainly to our eastern CWA in the morning, with a brief period of scattered rain showers associated with fropa btwn 15z-21z Tues. Areal coverage/intensity of precip will be limited on Tues, due to the lack of deep moisture profiles. Temps will start out mild with readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s, but fall sharply during the aftn hours as moderate low level caa develops on brisk westerly winds. Sounding indicating better mixing profiles, especially slv, so have placed mention of localized gusts up to 30 knots in fcst, especially in favorable aligned flow. Tues night llvl caa continues with some trrn focused snow showers. Temps drop back into the teens and 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 PM EST Monday . An upper level short wave will pass the North Country on Wednesday, manifesting in a surface low to the north. As the low passes to the north, a weak cold front will cross the region during the afternoon and winds will shift from southerly to westerly - becoming favorable for lake effect snow. Though little synoptic ascent is present with this system, the surface front paired with lake moisture will support the development of snow showers during the afternoon and evening. Some high-res models indicate a narrow band of frontogenesis along with weak instability (CAPE values of 30-50 J/kg) across northern NY and some portions of northern VT. Therefore, snow squalls are a possibility late Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially across northern NY, with snow accumulations of 1-3 inches. Chances of precipitation will dwindle overnight as winds become northerly and cold, dry air moves in early Thursday morning ahead of an approaching surface high. High temperatures on Wednesday will be near 30 with overnight lows dropping to the teens and single digits.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Monday . A surface high will settle across the region on Thursday allowing for some sunshine, though temperatures will remain chilly with highs in the teens and 20s, and overnight lows dropping to single digits in some places. Friday morning, winds will increase and become southwesterly with the approach of a surface low from the west. The subsequent warm air advection will increase cloudiness and bump high temperatures up to the low 30s, but conditions will remain dry.

A coastal low pressure system approaches the Northeast on Saturday, bringing the potential for numerous hazards. Widespread precip will begin as snow Saturday morning, but as temperatures increase throughout the day, accumulating mixed precipitation and rain are possible. Precipitation will continue through Sunday, becoming more scattered, though the threat of mixed precip remains. Downslope winds are also a concern along the western side of the Green Mountains on Saturday as breezy easterly winds are expected ahead of the approaching low. Because of the duration of the event, hydro-related concerns also exist for the weekend, and will be monitored more closely as the weekend approaches. Uncertainty remains regarding precip type for the weekend event and will be reassessed through the coming week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Through 06Z Wednesday . Low level wind shear will continue to be an issue through 12z-15z with south winds at 2000 feet in the 35 to 45 knot range. Winds at the surface will be around 10 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Areal coverage of precipitation is decreasing quickly across the area, but expect additional showers to move into northern NY and southern VT through early morning, then decreasing again after 12z or so. Visibility generally VFR, but MVFR/IFR in any precipitation. Ceilings will generally be in the MVFR category, but lower into the IFR category from time to time through 12z. After 12z ceilings will mainly be in the MVFR and VFR categories. Look for a wind shift to the west after 16z as a cold front moves across the area. Could see some 20 to 30 knot gusts after 18z, mainly across northern New York.

Outlook .

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN.

MARINE. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through at least Tuesday morning. South winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt will continue through Tuesday morning, subsiding just a bit to 15-20 kt and switching to the west in the afternoon. Waves will be 3 to 5 feet.


SYNOPSIS . Taber NEAR TERM . Hastings/Taber SHORT TERM . Hammond LONG TERM . Hammond AVIATION . Evenson/Hastings MARINE .

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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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