Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 5:58AM||Sunset 8:34PM||Monday August 10, 2020 11:59 AM EDT (15:59 UTC)||Moonrise 10:45PM||Moonset 12:05PM||Illumination 59%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ogdensburg, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBTV 101416 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1016 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020
SYNOPSIS. The warming trend continues today as highs are expected to warm into the lower to upper 80s across the North Country. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon and should largely be confined to northern New York. Tuesday will be the most oppressive day as highs warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices of 90 to 95 degrees look likely on Tuesday given the increasing temperatures and dewpoints. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the region on Tuesday in response the heat and humidity but should wane as we head into the evening and overnight hours. A cold front will swing through the region on Wednesday with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of the front. Quieter weather is then expected through the remainder of the week as we see high pressure build into the region from the west.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1015 AM EDT Monday . No changes needed to the forecast for today at this time. Previously mentioned below, upstream weak shortwave energy is already producing some elevated convection north of Lake Ontario this morning and as it tracks through the region this afternoon expect to see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. A quick perusal of the incoming 12Z guidance focuses on convection initiation across the central/southern Adirondacks, then drifting into central/southern Vermont this afternoon. Shouldn't see any strong storms, but frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours will be likely in anything that does form.
Previous Discussion . It's been a foggy start to much of the North Country following a cluster of showers that moves through the region yesterday afternoon and evening. We will see this fog lift shortly after sunrise with mostly sunny skies then prevailing through the morning hours. A shortwave that has influenced convection over Lake Michigan will track through the region this afternoon. This feature was unfortunately poorly initialized on the 00Z runs which gives a certain uncertainty to the area coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Based on upstream trends and forecast soundings, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms appears yo occur over northern New York where instability will be maximized. Further east in Vermont, soundings show a nice capping inversion based on when the shortwave is expected to move into the region. Nevertheless, we could see some showers during the later afternoon and early evening hours today in Vermont. QUieter weather looks to be in store for tonight although we could see a few lingering showers prior to midnight. Overnight lows are going to be quite warm tonight with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s as we continue to see a very warm and moist air mass advect into the region.
Tuesday is going to be a warm and humid day as we see temperatures warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints near 70 degrees. There is some uncertainty to the temperature forecast, however, as we could see debris cloud from nocturnal convection ahead of an approaching cold front move through the region. This increase in cloud cover could stifle our temperatures slightly but looking at the strength of the warm air advection in the 925 mb and 850 mb layers we should be able to warm efficiently even under decent cloud cover. Afternoon RH values will also be a little tricky as both the NAM and GFS soundings show LCL values of 7000 to 9000 ft. This should allow efficient mixing of drier air down to the surface during the afternoon hours which should drop dewpoints from around 70 degrees into the lower to mid 60s. A quick look at our apparent temperatures shows RH values between 90 and 96 degrees across the North Country with the highest values across the Champlain Valley in New York and Vermont. As of 1012 AM EDT Monday. Nevertheless, it's going to be hot and humid on Tuesday.
Another thing to be on the watch for on Tuesday will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The 00Z guidance is in good agreement with a low amplitude shortwave moving into the region around 21Z on Tuesday which will act as a trigger for convection. Model soundings show very impressive signatures for wet microbursts but the lack of wind shear (10-15 knots) will likely inhibit storms from becoming organized. Even with the lack of shear, the potential for wet microbursts exist with any storms that can get a sustained updraft going. The thunderstorm coverage shouldn't be anything impressive given the lack of shear and significant surface forcing mechanism but we will need to watch for brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning with any thunderstorms that do develop.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 326 AM EDT Monday . A cold front will move southeastward through northern NY early Wednesday night, then progress to Vermont by Wednesday morning. This frontal passage will be marked by a line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms given some elevated instability remaining into the overnight hours. CIN increases overnight however, so potential for thunderstorms will decrease as the night progresses. No severe threat with the frontal passage overnight given elevated nature of instability and very weak deep layer shear. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.
Models continue to hint that the front may become stalled over eastern VT or NH during the day Wednesday, halted from further eastward progress by strong ridging over the western Atlantic. Depending where exactly the front stalls, could see shower and thunderstorm activity reinvigorated Wednesday over eastern VT. Deep layer shear remains weak, and instability will be somewhat limited by morning cloud cover, so not looking like any severe threat. Highs Wednesday will be in the 80s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 326 AM EDT Monday . The stalled front will finally drop to our south Wednesday night as Atlantic ridging breaks down and a Canadian high pressure system strengthens to our north. The remainder of the week will see very quiet weather while the area remains under the influence of the Canadian high. Conditions look mainly dry through Saturday. Precipitation chances begin to ramp up Sunday as the high shifts to the Canadian Maritimes and return southerly flow develops over the northeastern US. Temperatures from Thursday on will gradually cool a few degrees each day . with highs starting in the mid to upper 80s Thursday and lowering to the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday. Lows each day will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Humidity levels will be noticeably lower than the first half of the week . so overall looking like a great end to the week for those looking to spend some time outdoors.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Through 12Z Tuesday . Widespread VLIFR and LIFR fog has been observed this morning and it looks like it'll take until 13Z for the fog to mix out of the river valleys of eastern Vermont. Across New York, we have already seen some improvement but we could see some IFR ceilings linger around until 14Z or so. After 15Z, ceilings should trend back to VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon but the areal coverage will be limited and only mention VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Light southwest winds will continue through the forecast period.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.
SYNOPSIS . Clay NEAR TERM . Clay/Lahiff SHORT TERM . Duell LONG TERM . Duell AVIATION . Clay
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