Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Junction City, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 4:28PM Sunday December 15, 2019 2:28 AM PST (10:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:19PMMoonset 11:01AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 840 pm pst Sat dec 14 2019 combined seas 7 to 9 ft. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 630 am and 630 pm Sunday. The ebb Sunday evening will be strong.
PZZ100 840 Pm Pst Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Weak flow through the weekend will lend to quieter conditions across area waters. Low level offshore flow is expected to develop early next week as surface ridging builds east of the cascades. A few organized frontal systems will likely impact the area beginning mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Junction City, WA
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location: 46.97, -123.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 150440 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 840 PM PST Sat Dec 14 2019

UPDATE. Minor adjustments have been made to the forecast this evening, mainly to the POPs tonight through tomorrow. Everything else appears to be largely on track.

Western Washington just couldn't shake off nuisance shower activity today. A glimpse at the most recent water vapor loop explains why. A shortwave trough that moved into the area from the northeastern Pacific late last night essentially got hung up over the area, with associated lift likely substantial enough for scattered shower activity. Most of the rain showers developed east of Puget Sound, tho there were some scattered snow showers in the mountains as well. Current radar shows lingering rain and snow across these areas, with an additional area of development across the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and nearby San Juan County. No notable weather impacts are anticipated tonight tho these spotty areas of rain/mountain snow showers will likely continue into the overnight. In addition to shower activity, areas of fog will likely develop with low clouds looming overhead as low level moisture remains locked in place.

A glimpse upstream in the upper levels reveals another subtle shortwave trough moving south across BC this evening. Model guidance projects this shortwave tracking across Washington from north to south overnight tonight and through the first half of the day tomorrow. As with the system currently in place, this disturbance will likely contribute to some ascent and additional development of scattered shower activity. POPs were enhanced going into tomorrow morning to account for this, mainly across northern sections of the area (particularly Whatcom and Skagit Counties). Fortunately, mid level height falls are weak with this system so not expecting much in the way of impacts. Model guidance not showing much in the way of additional snowfall accumulation across the Cascades, despite perhaps an enhancement in the snow shower coverage. This makes sense given the weak and spotty nature of this system.

A rather high-amplitude ridge will begin to build in for the latter half of the day tomorrow as a fairly robust trough develops upstream of it across the Pacific. Despite argued forcing for descent with this feature, there is a frontal system spotted in the lower levels, with 850mb WAA beginning to increase to the west late in the day. Previous discussion has been included for reference:

Kovacik

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 227 PM PST Sat Dec 14 2019/

SYNOPSIS. Scattered showers will decrease through Sunday. Weak high pressure will build over the area Monday and Tuesday but a frontal system moving into British Columbia might brush the area. Wetter weather systems will reach the area from the middle to end of next week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. A weak upper trough has kept scattered showers going today. Another weak trough will keep a few showers going on Sunday. An upper ridge will shift over the area Monday and Tuesday--but a warm front front a system passing to the north might clip the area with a little light rain in the north. Whatever remains of a front that spits will reach the area Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. This should be a wet period across Western Washington. It will likely be breezy at times and perhaps windy--more likely with the front late in the week. There are significant differences in the way the models handle the two or three frontal systems that affect the region and it is a bit too early to say anything specific, but overall the weather is likely to be seasonably wet with average temps and snow levels.

AVIATION. Ceilings this evening are generally a mix of MVFR and VFR, tho as has been the case recently, a few spots of IFR have been noted. With a disturbed atmosphere remaining in place overnight tonight combined with abundant low level moisture, think ceilings will drop down predominately to IFR and lower-end MVFR. Have inherited this trend in the TAFs this evening and plan to keep it going for the 06z update. Given low level moisture, think patchy fog will develop. All TAF sites have the potential for fog development with some reduction to vsbys-most likely to IFR & MVFR. Spotty showers will also carry with us into much of the day tomorrow so VCSH will likely prevail. Winds will remain generally light at 5 or 6 knots or less from the south.

KSEA . IFR and/or low MVFR ceilings likely overnight into at least part of Sunday. Some fog may develop overnight/early Sunday at the terminal or in its vicinity, potentially causing vsby reductions. Spotty showers will remain in the vicinity into Sunday. Winds 5-6kts out of the south.

Kovacik

MARINE . No changes were needed to the marine forecast this evening. The only headline in place remains the small craft advisory for the Coastal Waters, Grays Harbor, and the West Strait for hazardous seas. This headline is scheduled to expire at 9 PM with seas forecast to subside below 10ft. A glance at a few observations across these waters confirm that seas have come down to the 6-8 ft range. Will therefore let this product expire as intended at 9 PM. This will leave all waters headline-free through the weekend with no impacts from seas or wind expected until late Sunday/early Monday. Previous discussion follow:

The only remaining headline continues to be the small craft advisory for the Coastal Waters for hazardous seas. West swell of generally 10-12 ft should drop below 10 feet late this evening. Winds will remain under advisory levels across the waters through the weekend.

Winds will begin to approach advisory levels on Monday over the coastal waters and the west entrance to the strait as surface high pressure settles east of the Cascades and low pressure deepens over the offshore waters. A more active storm track into the region by midweek will bring the likelihood of advisory or gale force winds at times to area waters.

Kovacik/27

HYDROLOGY. There are no flooding concerns through the first half of next week. The latter part of next week will be wet--but snow levels are not likely to be high enough to put Western Washington into a river flooding situation.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 18 mi53 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 41°F 47°F1018.2 hPa
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 21 mi59 min E 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 47°F1018.5 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 26 mi29 min 48°F8 ft

Wind History for Westport, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA10 mi36 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F37°F100%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E4E5NE4E3E3E5E5E7E5E4E3CalmE3NE3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3SE3CalmS10S9N8E6E8E6E6E4N5CalmE6NE3CalmE3E3E3CalmE5CalmCalmE3
2 days agoS7S11S12S12S12S13S8S12S11S15S15W12W11SW10SW12SW11SW8W12SW17
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Tide / Current Tables for Cosmopolis, Chehalis River, Grays Harbor, Washington
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Cosmopolis
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Sun -- 04:02 AM PST     10.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:13 AM PST     4.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:00 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:02 PM PST     12.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:26 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:19 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:53 PM PST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.36.68.59.910.59.98.56.75.24.44.86.68.910.611.712.111.610.17.54.61.9-0-0.70.3

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:10 AM PST     2.61 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:43 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:26 AM PST     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:55 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:01 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:44 AM PST     1.97 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:45 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:27 PM PST     -3.85 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:01 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.51.91-0.4-1.6-2.1-2.1-1.4-0.211.81.91.50.8-0.3-1.7-3.1-3.8-3.8-3.1-1.8-01.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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