Nevis, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nevis, MN

June 16, 2024 5:18 AM CDT (10:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 9:25 PM
Moonrise 2:56 PM   Moonset 1:12 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 160913 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 413 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in the southern Red River Valley and west-central Minnesota this evening and overnight. Quarter sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts are possible; however, heavy rain and flash flooding could cause more substantial impacts late Sunday night through Tuesday.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Monday evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. Large hail and torrential rainfall will be the primary threats; however, isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are possible.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Synopsis

Active weather prevails through much of the forecast period as southwest flow dominates the H5 pattern across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the middle of next week. Moisture flow into the region streams along an 850 to 700 mb jet with a source region in southeast Texas. As such, PW values are expected to climb into the 90th to 98th percentile across the forecast area today through Tuesday ahead of an approaching theta-e gradient boundary.
H5 ridging over the Atlantic Coastal Plain will keep the overall flow pattern moving very slowly, thus causing continued exposure to southwest flow across the central and northern CONUS.


Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Today

Remnant strong storms will continue to weaken this morning along a line moving from west to east, mainly north of Highway 2. Additional storms could form along this line later this morning or early afternoon in the northern Red River Valley and northwest and west- central Minnesota, bringing another chance for large hail and isolated gusty winds. MUCAPE will climb into the 1500 to 2200 J/Kg range, with 0-3Km shear up to 25 knots. Deep layer shear will generally be around 40 knots. Hail up to the size of quarters will be the primary threat. Most of this thunderstorm activity looks to be east of the area by mid-afternoon as the theta-e gradient boundary moves into central Minnesota by around 03Z.

...Scattered Severe T-Storms and Flash Flooding Mon and Tue...

Heading into Monday, another shortwave rides northeastward along southwest H5 flow into the Northern Plains. Antecedent moisture remains draped across the area with PW values well over the 90th percentile. Storm development is expected during the evening hours and into the overnight period into Tuesday morning. Looking at CAPE and MUCAPE, the main concern will be elevated hail producing severe thunderstorms and torrential rainfall. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible; however, this threat will likely occur very early during the developmental stage of the strongest storms. Mean storm motion along the boundary will support the training of storms along the same area over a long period of time, perhaps several hours. As such, flash flooding is a concern through much of the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning.

Heavy rain continues eastward through the day Tuesday, with most activity leaving the forecast area by mid afternoon.


Active Pattern Continues with More Rain Possible

Another trough traverses the flow heading into late next week. Early indications allow for the mention of additional moderate to heavy rain late Thursday through Friday. Details will become more clear as we get closer, but pattern support remains somewhat strong for impactful weather late next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Low level clouds are moving into the Red River Valley and through BJI this evening. MVFR conditions persist for GFK, FAR, and TVF this evening through 12-14z. BJI is experiencing IFR conditions and we are expecting improvements around 15-17z.
Thunderstorms will be moving into the DVL area overnight around 08-12z, with frequent lightning and potential for erratic wind changes. Conditions are expected to clear out by 12-15z, with winds turning from the south toward the west. DVL, GFK, FAR, and TVF will see higher wind potential in the late morning through early afternoon hours. Gusts up to 30kts will be possible in DVL tomorrow afternoon and up to 25kts for TVF, FAR, and GFK.
Secondary system moves in end of the TAF period, with a BKN cloud deck and further precipitation chances post TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPKD PARK RAPIDS MUNIKONSHOK FIELD,MN 15 sm8 minSSE 103/4 smOvercast Mist 63°F61°F94%29.58
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