Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nevis, MN

UPDATE
Issued at 735 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The 500 mb wave circulation went from just north of Bismarck thru Devils Lake area to Cavalier. Main deformation zone precip was just west of the upper low where rain then snow fell with pocket of heavy snow Rugby to Rolla and northern Towner county ND and northwest Cavalier county ND. 6 inches northeast of Rolla. That band of precip is moving out, with lingering rain showers to the south and east of the upper low in the north valley and far NW MN moving out midday. Thinking any snow risk is now in Canada.

UPDATE Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Rain showers starting to move into the western Devils Lake Basin as the next shortwave approaches. Also getting a few weak thunderstorms in the southern Red River Valley that are not handled well by CAMs but are with around 250 J/kg of MU CAPE.
This activity will continue to push eastward across our area overnight, and many of the ensemble members transition at least part of the precipitation in northeastern ND and northwestern MN over to snow. 00Z HRRR has 40 to 50 percent chances for an inch or more of snow, although fairly warm pavement temps will mute the impact. Will keep the SPS going as advisory level impacts seem less than 20 percent.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Synopsis

Broad upper troughing will remain in place over much of the West to Northern Plains this week. This will house numerous shortwave troughs moving through the exit region of the broader upper trough, with this upper trough's axis finally shifting eastward through the central CONUS late this week. This synoptic pattern will provide intervals of precipitation today and Tuesday, as well as Friday to Saturday. This includes potential for snow and associated winter impacts both Tuesday and later this week. More details on this below.

With the upper trough passage through our area around Friday to Saturday increasing chances for precipitation, there is a scenario where increasing instability works its way into Minnesota and/or eastern Dakotas to allow for thunderstorms. At this time, it remains unclear if this will occur as there is much uncertainty in numerous preceding shortwave trough passages through the Plains and Midwest that will dictate this buoyant air mass's location.

The upper troughing will be oriented in such a way that above average temperatures will overspread our portion of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with highs in the 60s and 70s currently forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

With the incoming upper trough passage late this week, a cooler, more seasonable air mass will envelope Northern Plains into Upper Midwest.

Potential winter impacts Tuesday morning

There is high confidence in an area of precipitation moving generally southwest to northeast across our area north of I-94 corridor. A large subset of high resolution guidance reveals temperatures in northeast ND into far northwest MN will be close enough to freezing to allow some of this precipitation to fall as snow. In fact, relatively strong ascent with rich moisture feeding into the ascent will allow for heavy snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour. Given the relatively fast forward movement of this precipitation, the time for heavy snow rates to reside over any particular location in these areas will be brief (i.e. 1-3 hours at any location).

While majority of high resolution guidance depicts this scenario, there are still differences in where exactly this occurs within these region as the areas potentially impacted by snow will likely be quite narrow. Additionally, there is anticipation of relatively warm surface temperatures leading to melting on contact. Although, these higher snow rates will likely overcome warm surfaces to allow for at least some accumulation on non-grassy surfaces. Anywhere from 1-5 inches is liable to fall, with more than 3 inches more likely to be on grassy surfaces.

Heavy snow rates will greatly reduce visibility, and may lead to slippery roads from a slushy accumulation. And with this occuring during the morning commute, we've amplified messaging of this potential via graphical messaging as well as issuing a Special Weather Statement.

Late week winter impact potential

Ensemble guidance continues to cluster toward a scenario that features heavy snow in one or two more consolidated systems' deformation zones. However, most guidance favors majority of this snow to remain in Canada. There is still a subset of guidance that brings snow into our area, mainly north of Highway 200. This includes snow accumulation up to 5 inches. Snow may also coincide with gusty winds to introduce impacts from blowing snow and reduced visibility into this scenario.

Additionally, ensembles now reveal a potential scenario that brings a second wave of precipitation and snow through the region on Saturday. This widens the window of when winter impacts may occur from solely Friday to now Friday into Saturday.

Ensemble guidance has also trended some what down on potential for warning level impacts from 6 or more inches of snow to be less than 10%. However, the chance for advisory level winter impacts remains at around 30%.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 735 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A mess this morning with aviation with some partly cloudy pockets, mixed in with VFR clouds and areas of IFR fog and low clouds. Upper low in far northeast ND currently will move northeast and winds turning north-northwest all areas today 5-15 kts. Sky cover may remain chaotic in terms of height above the ground, but for the most part settle into the MVFR range going toward noon and afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.