Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake George, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 357 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024

Synopsis

Early morning satellite reveals upper troughing over the Dakotas into Minnesota, with embedded lobes of vorticity. At the surface, a stout cold front is sweeping through the area form the north/northwest. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the mid 30s, with teens closely following behind the front. Radar and surface observations also show areas of light rain/drizzle ahead of the front, with light snow and gusty winds over 30 mph behind the front. This along with wet roads just above freezing ahead of the crashing temperatures behind the front is leading to icy conditions, also known as flash freeze. The combination of snow showers, gusty winds, and flash freeze will lead to hazardous travel conditions this morning, impacting the morning commute. More details on this below.

This afternoon will see general decrease in overall coverage of snow showers, although some lingering widely scattered snow showers are forecast, within which may reduce visibility as low as half a mile. Gusty winds up to 45 mph will also continue through the morning into the afternoon. This combined with recent snowfall over 2 inches near the international border will promote blowing snow and drifting snow, particularly during the morning to early afternoon.

Winds temporarily decrease around this evening through tonight before another reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday, increasing winds again similarly strengthen to today's winds.
Behind this cold front, additional scattered snow showers will develop, of which may bring brief heavy snow rates, sharply and suddenly reducing visibility within snow showers. This may again bring travel impacts to the region during the day Tuesday.

Behind this cold front ushers in cold conditions starting Tuesday night lasting through Friday morning. Within this timeframe exists potential for hazardous wind chills around 30 below zero. More details on this below.

Ensemble guidance starts to push this cold air mass east around Friday as upper troughing housing the cold air propagates east, with generally zonal flow aloft replacing it over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest into this weekend. Embedded progressive shortwave troughs are depicted by ensembles during this period, which would bring periods of wintry precipitation, potentially bringing periodic winter impacts. Uncertainty exists in temperature trends within this period, with a pattern full of progressive waves introducing variable temperatures. This would influence precipitation type, of which is also uncertain.

Hazardous travel conditions this morning

Currently, area webcams and 511 DOT websites confirm wet roads exist ahead of the stout cold front as a result of yesterday's rainfall of 0.25-0.75" over much of the area. Observed road temperatures in the warm sector ahead of the front are also just above freezing. With sharply decreasing temperatures behind the front, wet roads are quickly turning icy from flash freeze of residual wetness on roads, again as confirmed on webcams and 511 websites. Light snowfall is also helping in the flash freeze process and adding a layer of light snow in addition to ice.

This along with snow showers and gusty winds between 30-45 mph behind the front will contribute to reduced visibility in the half mile to 1 mile range. Isolated/infrequent pockets of quarter to half a mile visibility under briefly heavy snow showers are also possible.

The combination of these hazards during the Monday morning commute has lead to the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory across eastern North Dakota and Red River Valley. Other areas near central Minnesota are also liable for flash freeze impacts mid to late morning.

Locations near Lake of the Woods region are forecast to accumulate an additional 1-3 inches of snowfall as one of the lobes of vorticity pivots through this region.

While temperatures remain cold and winds blustery this afternoon, coverage of snow showers are forecast to decrease.
Despite decreasing snow showers, lingering travel impacts from degraded road and travel conditions may continue beyond this morning.

Potentially hazardous wind chills Wednesday and Thursday

The seasonably cold, arctic air mass enveloping the area behind Tuesday's cold front is seasonably cold (aka not record breaking, but still anomalously cold per ECMWF's EFI values).
While the air mass is of arctic source, a lack of widespread snowpack expected over most of our area, outside of areas north of the US Highway 2 corridor, lowers confidence in how cold temperatures will actually get. As such, confidence in hazardous wind chills of -30F or colder is lowered. NBM currently offers 60% chance of achieving these values between Wednesday morning and Thursday night, which seems reasonable for areas with a better snowpack (i.e. north of US Highway 2 corridor).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1156 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024

Low stratus will eventually fill in across eastern ND and northwest MN where it hasn't already developed, and MVFR to IFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. There is a signal for a few VFR breaks during the afternoon, but there isn't a consistent signal of this prevailing. Rain/snow eventually increasing in coverage as a cold front and low pressure system move through the region after 08-11Z and winds increase from the west-northwest. This should result in additional visibility reductions, though the worst conditions should be related to snowfall combined with wind as many locations no longer have blowable snow pack. Guidance is consistent in this next area of snow exiting west to east by midday, though a few showers may linger into the afternoon.
Strongest winds and any remaining snow showers (if they do linger in the afternoon) should end with sunset.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ001>005- 007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.