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FXUS63 KFGF 080208 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 808 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Possibility of some light drizzle or maybe even freezing drizzle across our north tomorrow morning ahead of the main system.

- Accumulating snow is very likely across most of the forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning, with 40 to 80 percent probabilities of 2 inches or more across parts of northeast ND and northwest MN.

- Winds gusting to around 40 mph Friday could create reduced visibility as snow blows as it falls.

UPDATE
Issued at 807 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Light returns on radar associated with elevated WAA and positive vorticity has not actually y resulted in any precipitation reports at the surface as mid levels remain very dry (virga). I couldn't rule out a few sprinkles from this activity thorugh the evening as it transitions north, but impacts would not be anticipated with temperatures holding in the 35-42F range where it is tracking. Colder temperatures tonight will remain dependent on clearing, but where clouds linger temperatures should remain above freezing.

There is a signal for increasing low level saturation in southeast BL flow that "could" produce pockets of drizzle by Friday morning, with a lack of deeper moisture lowering potential for ice introduction aloft until the afternoon when the main system moves east. "If" saturation is deep enough (profiles are marginal) "and" it is cold enough we may see a few reports of freezing drizzle during the morning commute. Based on temperatures and where outliers in the HRRR actually try to resolve a limited freezing drizzle signal the best chance for that may remain along and north of highway 2. There ins't a lot of new information to act on at this point, with such a low probability of occurrence and we will need to continue to monitor trends through the night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Tonight and Friday morning...Even with southeasterly winds ahead of the surface low deepening over the central Dakotas, there has been another day of very warm temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s, with even some low 60s in spots including Fargo. Much of the night will see increasing clouds, with some precipitation starting to move into the western Devils Lake Basin. Some of the models, including the NAM, have a signal for some very light precipitation with a lead shortwave lifting through late tonight and into Friday morning. The model soundings have some potential for drizzle or even light freezing drizzle across our northern counties, although there is a lot of uncertainty for how much saturation there will be in the low layers. There is also an unusual amount of uncertainty with temperatures (for December), with some probabilities, ranging from around 5 percent in the north to 75 percent in the south, for temperatures staying above the freezing mark overnight. Coupled with very warm surface temperatures today, it is unknown if we do get drizzle or freezing drizzle, how much of an impact it will be. Plus there will be warming temperatures above freezing during the day tomorrow, even in the more northern counties. There is about a 50 percent confidence in at least some spotty slick conditions with FZDZ in our far north, but not high enough confidence to include in advisory at this point.

Friday afternoon into Saturday...Winds will shift to the west and then northwest by the end of the day on Friday as the low pressure system wraps up over the northern Red River Valley. The surface low will be pulling into southwestern Ontario, with some cold air starting to filter into our northwestern counties late in the day. Drizzle and rain should change over to snow by afternoon in the Devils Lake Basin. Temperatures will continue to fall and winds pick up out of the northwest by Friday evening, and there should start to be some snow accumulations starting to move in. Winds will bring blowing snow, and although widespread whiteout conditions are not expected, some reductions to visibility will be ongoing as the snow falls. The snow will continue into Saturday morning before tapering off from west to east. Probabilities for 2 inches of snow or more have increased into the 50 to 90 percent range, a large jump from yesterday.
Snow totals as a whole are fairly marginal for an advisory, but in combination with the possibility of some freezing drizzle and blowing snow and sharp temperature drop, will put out an SPS highlighting the end of our December warm spell and the return to winter.

Sunday through Thursday...Pattern transitions back to northwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave moving through Manitoba and Ontario Monday will bring some reinforcing cold air to the region for the first part of the work week, but should stay near seasonal averages. By Wednesday and Thursday, upper heights start to rise as ridge builds back in. The box and whisker plots from the NBM have highs again back to around 10 to 20 degrees above average for Thursday, and the R climate percentiles are showing a warm signal. There is a cluster of ensemble members, around 17 percent of them, that show lower heights on top of the ridge, but the other clusters are pretty high on heights and warm on temperatures. Too soon to tell if we will approach the record highs we've had this week, but ensemble is signaling towards another few abnormally warm December days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Other than a brief period of possible low level wind shear over KBJI, aviation impacts are expected to be minimal through the first 6hr of the TAF period as ceilings/vis remain VFR across eastern ND and northwest MN. Eventually lower stratus (MVFR then IFR) overspreads the region Friday morning west to east as a low pressure system builds east. Ahead of this system there is a low probability (20%) for drizzle or freezing drizzle, but confidence is too low for TAF inclusion. THe main period of precipitation (light to moderate snow) builds over the Devils Lake Basin during the afternoon Friday and towards KGFK and possibly KTVF late Friday afternoon. There may also be increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon that could lead to blowing snow impacts to visibility when the snow is falling (mainly at DVL during this TAF period).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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