Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake George, MN

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 4:40PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 8:07 AM CST (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:48PMMoonset 6:00AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake George, MN
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location: 47.08, -94.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 101254 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 654 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 652 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Made only a few minor tweaks to temps and clouds for the ones exiting the area. A few spots are still reporting haze or flurries (actually ice crystals lofted by overnight winds). That trend has been decreasing in the last few hours as winds decrease.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 406 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Wind chills and how to handle headlines are the main concern for the period.

Secondary cold front continues to move across our south and east, with some cloud cover and flurries with it. Continued with mention of snow for a bit longer, but think we should be clear and dry by sunrise. The center of the Arctic high is well to our west over eastern MT, and is expected to drop down through SD later today. That will keep at least a little bit of a pressure gradient for much of the day with west to southwest winds staying in the 5 to 15 mph range. Our western counties should see enough weak warm air advection to get a bit closer to the zero mark for actual temperatures and above wind chill advisory criteria this afternoon. Most of our eastern counties will be a bit colder and other than an hour or two, will stay in wind chill criteria for much of the afternoon. Another reinforcing shortwave will dig down late this afternoon and tonight with another surface high dropping into the Northern Plains. Winds will be a bit lighter tonight, but clear skies will allow temps to approach the -20 mark and wind chills will be enough to reach criteria across the whole CWA. Extended the wind chill advisory across most of the MN counties (except Wilken and Clay), and have the western portions of the CWA coming back in for another wind chill advisory starting at 03Z tonight. The cold temps and wind chills will hang on through most of Wednesday morning.

Later in the day on Wednesday, a shortwave moving into eastern MT will push some increasing clouds into our CWA. Think at this point that precip from this shortwave will stay mostly to our west before 00Z Thursday, so kept dry for now.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 406 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Main story for the long term period will be chances for snow and an additional chance for cold conditions this weekend.

Wednesday night- Thursday: A clipper is expected to move through from the northwest Wednesday night across the Dakotas and Minnesota. There are some similarities of this clipper to Sunday night's clipper which resulted presented a challenge in forecasting location highest amounts. This was mainly due to uncertainties regarding a strong mid level fgen band, but as is typical of any mesoscale forcing light frontogenesis. The upcoming clipper is suggested to develop northwest-southeast 900-700 mb frontogenetical forcing on the head of low level warm air advection driven by synoptic forcing from the parent shortwave trough. Hi res guidance is just now starting to view the beginnings of this and indeed some depict developing northwest/southeast snow band/s in central North Dakota Wednesday evening. Luckily the orientation of fgen compared to the track of the clipper suggests mesoscale forcing shouldn't linger over a particular area very long limiting the potential for locally large accumulations.

There are some differences between this and Sunday night's clipper. This clipper looks to be weaker and more compact, which should help limit the strength and depth of WAA/frontogenesis. Though its compactness may suggest its track can shift easily, thus lowering confidence even more on snowfall placement. It will also have to overcome dry air ahead of the system which may at least help delay the onset of snow. Once the column does saturate, snow production shouldn't be hard to come by given the majority of forcing within a deep, saturated DGZ. As is typical of clippers, it should be rather progressive across the area with snow exiting the CWA to the east by Thursday midday. Milder temps into the teens above zero expected Thursday. Currently the forecast reflects a general 1-2 inches across the region (owing to lack of better synoptic forcing and moisture), however given the potential for mesoscale forcing locally higher amounts are possible with no clear indication of where.

Friday - Tuesday: Hot on the heels of the mid week clipper will be another clipper to move through from the northwest Friday. Details remain fuzzy on this system, although it looks to be synoptically a bit stronger than the previous. Snow amounts and placement are unclear at this time. Some guidance suggests enough warmer air advects into the region while scouring ice nuclei to bring the whispers of freezing drizzle back into the forecast. As per usual, confidence is very low on this potential this far out. Strong CAA behind Friday's clipper does point to another shot of cold air this weekend with low temperatures dipping back below zero.

Flow aloft starts to become more zonal early next week with signs of ridging starting to show up in ensemble guidance. This would promote milder temperatures for this time of year. I cannot comment on precip chances given spread in guidance, but typically milder temps means potential for more moisture availability.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

A few airports reporting flurries or haze with 3-5SM visibility, from ice crystals that were lofted by the recent gusty winds and have yet to settle out. This will continue for another hour or two on and off before all sites become VFR. Winds will be on the northerly or southerly side of westerly for most of the period in the 8 to 12 kt range.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN . Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ003-029.

Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday for MNZ003-029.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for MNZ001-002- 004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.



UPDATE . JR SHORT TERM . JR LONG TERM . CJ AVIATION . JR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN14 mi75 minWNW 1110.00 miFair-9°F-14°F78%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPKD

Wind History from PKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N10N10NW9NW10NW10NW7NW9W8NW8W6CalmW4W6W3W3W3NW6NW8NW8W6W6NW11NW10
1 day agoN8N9N11N9N8N6N7NE9NE5NE6N9NE8
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2 days agoSE8S8S8S11S10S10S13S15S12S7S11S8S9S6SW5W5W7NW7NW8N12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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