Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake George, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:42PM Thursday August 13, 2020 9:51 PM CDT (02:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 3:30PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake George, MN
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location: 47.08, -94.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 140143 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 843 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Severe thunderstorms continue northeast of the F-M area, up toward the northwest side of the Upper and Lower Red Lakes. These storms have not been moving too much, so heavy rain may still be an issue in some areas. Radar estimated storm total precipitation shows some heavier amounts in eastern Pennington and eastern Norman counties. Otherwise, the latest SPC discussion mentions the potential for continued development over the next few hours as the low level flow picks up.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Thunderstorms have been firing from just east of the Fargo- Moorhead area, northeast toward the Upper and Lower Red Lakes. This seems to be along the western fringe of the low level jet and in the warm sector with ample instability and moisture. The SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch that includes most of our counties along and east of the Red River Valley. With the high amount of moisture in the area, will have to keep an eye on heavy rain, or training of storms over the same area.

SHORT TERM. (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Warm front continues to work north, but so far we appear to remain capped with only elevated showers/weak storms transitioning north early this afternoon. As the surface trough continues to slide east and the CAP weakens we should see combination of low level convergence and at least some synoptic support associated with trough passage through southern Canada. This should allow thunderstorm initiation in highly unstable air mass this evening (ML CAPE already over 4000 J/KG according to SPC RAP mesoanalysis). Effective shear is shown by SPC Mesoanalysis in the 30-45 kt across northeast ND into northwest MN, and if concurrent with thunderstorm activity could help with discrete supercell potential before mergers take place and activity transitions east. Best signal is still mainly in northwest MN based on CAMs, but I wouldn't want to rule out severe potential anywhere this evening along convergence zone (may be more isolated further into eastern ND).

Stronger synoptic/mesoscale ascent arrives after 03Z as shortwave moves along the ND/SD border, with very high shear associated with LLJ and strong mid level speed max. WIth lingering high moisture/instability there will be a potential for elevated discrete cells and eventually upscale growth potential into another MCS that would then transition into eastern ND and northwest MN 4-9AM period. This period may actually have the best overall potential for severe convection in eastern ND.

Regarding impacts this evening/overnight tonight: Where supercells develop environment could support potential for hail to 2 inch, downburst potential to 75 mph and tornadoes. While activity may mainly be elevated late tonight considering the high shear/CAPE environment there is at least a conditional risk for tornadogenesis and large hail with discrete cells. If more of an upscale trend occurs then a transition to a widespread wind event may become favored.

How this potential MCS late tonight/Friday morning holds together and tracks eastward ahead of the main cold front will likely determine impacts and timing of any redevelopment during the day Friday and Friday afternoon. If this moves through quick enough, we may see a window for destabilization and another round of supercells/discrete storms ahead of the cold front in our east. If this complex lingers through the day then the tendency may be embedded pulse type convection with widespread heavy rain through the afternoon. Cold front should push east of our CWA based on current model timing by late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening with drier/more stable conditions then ending thunderstorm and severe threat.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Saturday . The upper level trough will begin to exit the CWA overnight Friday and into Saturday. A weak shortwave is expected to move across the northern part of the CWA during the afternoon on Saturday and some spotty rain showers in this area cannot be completely ruled out. Otherwise, temperatures look to stay in the upper 70s/low 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday through Thursday . Northwesterly flow will begin to dominate the upper levels and will usher in a calmer weather pattern to close the weekend and move into the beginning of the work week. Along with the upper level ridging, high pressure at the surface will persist for much of the forecast period. Calmer, cooler, and drier conditions will accompany this transition with high temperatures in the mid 70s/low 80s and dewpoints in the 50s for much of the forecast area. Towards the end of the forecast period the chance for a slightly more active weather pattern appears to emerge and could bring with it the chance for rain once again.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

With limited time due to the recent issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch, have basically gone with continuity from the previous set of TAFs. Added some definition for the first few hours, and will take a closer look beyond the first 6 hours with the next TAF issuance. As it stands right now, KTVF and KBJI look to have the best chance for storms this evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . None. MN . None.

UPDATE . Godon SHORT TERM . DJR LONG TERM . NCR/DJR AVIATION . Godon


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN14 mi58 minSE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F72°F79%1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPKD

Wind History from PKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9SE11SE9SE9SE6SE7SE7SE8E9SE9SE9SE11SE11SE14SE16
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1 day agoSE4SE4SE4SE6SE7SE4SE7SE7SE5S4S8SE8SE10E8CalmS7E8S14S11SE15SE13SE12SE6E5
2 days agoSW5CalmSW4SW4S4SW4SW5SW5SW6W6W10W11SW10W12W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.