Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 4:05 PM   Moonset 4:18 AM

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FXUS63 KFGF 200848 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 348 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Need to monitor relative humidity values this afternoon and Sunday afternoon but RH values less than 25 percent in Minnesota forecast area. Sunday has highest chance of this (70 percent).

DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Clearing of the clouds is working south-southeast steadily early this morning and clearing will continue to progress thru mid morning with all areas anticipated to see the lower clouds out of the area. There is some patchy high and mid clouds behind the clearing. Upstream in clear area in central Saskatchewan Friday there was no CU as airmass is drying as it clears. So will stick with idea of limited sky cover for midday and afternoon and into Sunday as well. NW winds will remain breezy, esp in E ND, with winds 15-25 mph today. Drier airmass moving in will bring in dew pts in the mid teens to low 20s, and with highs mid 40s to around 50 look for minimum RH values of 28-35 percent across the area. Using a NBM/Conshort blend for dew pts yield the 28-33 percent lowest RH values in NW/WC MN not quite low enough for SPS for near critical fire weather conditions. Per MIFC need min RH at or below 25 pct.

Sunday with warmer temps (about 10 degrees warmer) RH values do lower into the low 20s. Winds are west and less mostly 10-15 mph. But SPS for near critical fire weather may be needed on later shifts for Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday rain chances have lowered from 24 hours ago with trends in the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF ensembles to have progressive 500 mb low move into southern Saskatchewan Monday with a 850 mb trough/sfc trough extending southeast from it moving into MN.
850 mb moisture return is more focused to our east/southeast and drier 850 mb winds will be over the area ahead of the upper low, which will drop southeast into northern MN Mon night/Tues. Some light rain is anticipated with this system mainly north of upper low track which favors S Manitoba into southern parts of NW Ontario and far northern fcst area. Amounts of rain forecast from WPC are less as well with NBM 4.1 probs for more than 0.25 inch 10 pct in the far north fcst area to less than 5 percent south.

Thu-Fri will see next system bringing chances for rain to the area. Ensembles indicate GEFS stronger with system and taking a more organized upper low and surface low northeast toward the western Great Lakes vs other models which indicate a bit less amplified pattern and slightly weaker system. NBM 4.1 probs for more than 0.25 inch are 40-50 percent in west central MN to 20-30 percent northwest fcst area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR conditions prevail across much of the area tonight, with VFR CIGs expected to develop at KDVL, KFAR and KGFK. For KBJI and KTVF, low clouds could keep MVFR ceilings in place through around mid morning Saturday. Isolated snow showers continue to diminish across the area. All sites should see VFR conditions by midday Saturday as skies clear from west to east. Winds become westerly by Saturday afternoon, with wind speeds generally in the 10 to 15 knot range through much of the day.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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