Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eagle Lake, ME
March 29, 2024 9:49 AM EDT (13:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 7:09 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 7:55 AM |
Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KCAR 291343 AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 943 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will intensify and track north toward Nova Scotia today. The low will continue north through the Maritimes tonight into Saturday. High pressure will build over the area Sunday into Monday then move east on Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the Midwest on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:43AM Update...Water vapor imagery shows a rapidly negatively tilted trof at 500mb helping to strengthen the upper level divergence above a surface low pressure system. This low will be rapidly deepening as it tracks into the Gulf of Maine today.
Low pressure is located SE of Cape Cod this morning and continuing to surge light to moderate rainfall northward. As surface lift strengthens this morning expecting a band of moderate to heavy rain develop over the Downeast extending back to the I-95 corridor. Rainfall rates may be high enough combined with snowpack melt to cause rapid rises on small rivers, creeks and streams posing a flooding risk. Rainfall totals over the last 24-36hrs have ranged 1-3 inches in these areas where the Flood Watch remains in effect. Did make a trimming to the Flood Watch and removed Northern and Central Piscataquis County because temperatures are falling below freezing and less rainfall. Minor tweaks with rain changing to snow in the Moosehead Region into the North Woods. Expect the rain/snow line to slowly shift east through the day.
Previous Discussion...
A corridor of moderate steady rain will continue lifting north through our area today, supported by lift north of a negatively tilted trough digging off the Mid-Atlantic coast. As the trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted it will intensify low pressure well east of Cape Cod. This low will track north toward Nova Scotia later today into this evening and pull colder air into its circulation changing rain over to snow across eastern area late this afternoon. Precipitation will taper off across the west. Snow over eastern areas will continue overnight with a few inches likely across Aroostook and parts of northern Penobscot Counties where a winter weather advisory will be issued. Snow will begin to taper off early Saturday morning as the low moves away through the Maritimes. Strong gusty northwesterly winds will pick up behind the system late tonight which may be strong enough cause some blowing snow even though the snow will wet.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Accumulating snfl will msly wrap up by late Sat Morn ovr Ern areas as strong low pres moves NNE from NS Prov into the Nrn Can Maritimes. Patchy blsn will cont ovr NE ptns of the FA as WNW winds gust at and just abv 40 mph, spcly across high trrn. Temps rising abv freezing and wind gusts dmnshg below 35 mph will keep sn from blowing durg the Aftn. Otherwise, sct sn shwrs will end SW to NE across the FA Sat Aftn. High temps will be slightly below avg.
Winds will dmnsh as skies clr Sat Ngt with seasonal low temps as sfc high pres from the NW builds toward the FA. Sun and Sun Ngt look to fair with lgt winds and contd near seasonal temps.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mon thru Mon Ngt conts to look fair with milder temps as sfc high pres holds ovr the FA. Clds will begin to increase from the S and W as another strong low pres system from the Midwest begins to apch. High temps will be seasonally mild.
Aftwrds, long range models vary both from each other and run to run with the tmg of the Midwest low. Latest models have slowed the onset of this system by at least 6 to 12 hrs from advertised in Ystdy's day shift, and in fact blended model onset PoPs for Tue into Wed were delayed by this margin. Blocking of high pres across Cntrl QB and the Nrn Can Maritimes will slow the onset of precip from SW to NE across our FA late Tue Ngt into Wed (with a slightly inverted high temps noted for Wed Aftn), with downsloping ENE winds from the Gaspe and Nrn NB highlands really slowing down precip arrival to NE ptns of the FA as a triple point secondary low deepens ovr the Gulf of ME. With this in mind, we weight the highest likely PoPs Wed Ngt into Thu with sig precip reaching far Nrn areas last late Wed Ngt into Thu Morn, before tapering to shwrs Thu Aftn or Eve.
Precip types will be challenging with this system, spcly ovr Downeast areas. For now, we let type be somewhat be dictated by diurnal/noctural trends of temps, which is a fair first guess for systems in the long range where there is uncertainty where mdt to heavy precip banding and tmg relative to ngt for accurate snfl projections, but it should be noted that this system will likely be capable of producing sig ovrngt to morn snfl Wed Ngt into Thu where banding sets up. For now, we keep temps near seasonal norms Wed thru Thu.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: LIFR conditions are expected today followed by IFR conditions tonight. Winds increasing from the north today, then increasing from the northwest tonight becoming strong and gusty overnight.
SHORT TERM: Sat Morn...Nrn TAF sites IFR clgs/vsbys in lgt sn/blsn. MVFR sites MVFR clgs/ocnl vsbys in sct sn shwrs. Very strong NW winds.
Sat Aftn...Nrn TAF sites MVFR clgs/ocnl vsbys in sct sn shwrs.
Downeast sites low VFR clgs. Strong NW winds.
Sat Ngt...all TAF sites VFR. Mdt NW winds, becmg lgt after mdngt.
Sun - Tue Morn...all TAF sites VFR with lgt winds.
Tue Aftn...all TAF sites MVFR clgs. Lgt to mdt E winds.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A gale warning will be up later today through tonight for northwesterly winds gusting up to 40 kt. Seas will build up to 8 to 10 ft overnight in response to the gale.
SHORT TERM: Gale force winds on Sat will dmnsh to SCA by late in the day with winds and seas slowly dmnshg below SCA on Sun.
Winds and seas will then remain below SCA Mon and Tue before increasing to SCA and possibly abv Tue Ngt thru Wed. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of a short fetch 3 to 5 sec and longer swell like 9 to 11 sec groups.
HYDROLOGY
Moderate to heavy rain will continue accelerate snowmelt over the area. The snowpack is rapidly ripening. Heavy rainfall and very saturated soils and standing water could be an issue before water enters the main stem rivers. In the north, main stem rivers will mostly be able to absorb the additional input.
However, the Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk for reaching minor flood level late this week into the weekend. The Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some points on the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far north, the additional water input may be enough to finally move the ice on the St. John river. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Central Highlands (including Baxter & Moosehead Region) into interior Downeast through the day Friday.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ001-002-005-006.
Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ005-006-011- 015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 943 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will intensify and track north toward Nova Scotia today. The low will continue north through the Maritimes tonight into Saturday. High pressure will build over the area Sunday into Monday then move east on Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the Midwest on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:43AM Update...Water vapor imagery shows a rapidly negatively tilted trof at 500mb helping to strengthen the upper level divergence above a surface low pressure system. This low will be rapidly deepening as it tracks into the Gulf of Maine today.
Low pressure is located SE of Cape Cod this morning and continuing to surge light to moderate rainfall northward. As surface lift strengthens this morning expecting a band of moderate to heavy rain develop over the Downeast extending back to the I-95 corridor. Rainfall rates may be high enough combined with snowpack melt to cause rapid rises on small rivers, creeks and streams posing a flooding risk. Rainfall totals over the last 24-36hrs have ranged 1-3 inches in these areas where the Flood Watch remains in effect. Did make a trimming to the Flood Watch and removed Northern and Central Piscataquis County because temperatures are falling below freezing and less rainfall. Minor tweaks with rain changing to snow in the Moosehead Region into the North Woods. Expect the rain/snow line to slowly shift east through the day.
Previous Discussion...
A corridor of moderate steady rain will continue lifting north through our area today, supported by lift north of a negatively tilted trough digging off the Mid-Atlantic coast. As the trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted it will intensify low pressure well east of Cape Cod. This low will track north toward Nova Scotia later today into this evening and pull colder air into its circulation changing rain over to snow across eastern area late this afternoon. Precipitation will taper off across the west. Snow over eastern areas will continue overnight with a few inches likely across Aroostook and parts of northern Penobscot Counties where a winter weather advisory will be issued. Snow will begin to taper off early Saturday morning as the low moves away through the Maritimes. Strong gusty northwesterly winds will pick up behind the system late tonight which may be strong enough cause some blowing snow even though the snow will wet.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Accumulating snfl will msly wrap up by late Sat Morn ovr Ern areas as strong low pres moves NNE from NS Prov into the Nrn Can Maritimes. Patchy blsn will cont ovr NE ptns of the FA as WNW winds gust at and just abv 40 mph, spcly across high trrn. Temps rising abv freezing and wind gusts dmnshg below 35 mph will keep sn from blowing durg the Aftn. Otherwise, sct sn shwrs will end SW to NE across the FA Sat Aftn. High temps will be slightly below avg.
Winds will dmnsh as skies clr Sat Ngt with seasonal low temps as sfc high pres from the NW builds toward the FA. Sun and Sun Ngt look to fair with lgt winds and contd near seasonal temps.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mon thru Mon Ngt conts to look fair with milder temps as sfc high pres holds ovr the FA. Clds will begin to increase from the S and W as another strong low pres system from the Midwest begins to apch. High temps will be seasonally mild.
Aftwrds, long range models vary both from each other and run to run with the tmg of the Midwest low. Latest models have slowed the onset of this system by at least 6 to 12 hrs from advertised in Ystdy's day shift, and in fact blended model onset PoPs for Tue into Wed were delayed by this margin. Blocking of high pres across Cntrl QB and the Nrn Can Maritimes will slow the onset of precip from SW to NE across our FA late Tue Ngt into Wed (with a slightly inverted high temps noted for Wed Aftn), with downsloping ENE winds from the Gaspe and Nrn NB highlands really slowing down precip arrival to NE ptns of the FA as a triple point secondary low deepens ovr the Gulf of ME. With this in mind, we weight the highest likely PoPs Wed Ngt into Thu with sig precip reaching far Nrn areas last late Wed Ngt into Thu Morn, before tapering to shwrs Thu Aftn or Eve.
Precip types will be challenging with this system, spcly ovr Downeast areas. For now, we let type be somewhat be dictated by diurnal/noctural trends of temps, which is a fair first guess for systems in the long range where there is uncertainty where mdt to heavy precip banding and tmg relative to ngt for accurate snfl projections, but it should be noted that this system will likely be capable of producing sig ovrngt to morn snfl Wed Ngt into Thu where banding sets up. For now, we keep temps near seasonal norms Wed thru Thu.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: LIFR conditions are expected today followed by IFR conditions tonight. Winds increasing from the north today, then increasing from the northwest tonight becoming strong and gusty overnight.
SHORT TERM: Sat Morn...Nrn TAF sites IFR clgs/vsbys in lgt sn/blsn. MVFR sites MVFR clgs/ocnl vsbys in sct sn shwrs. Very strong NW winds.
Sat Aftn...Nrn TAF sites MVFR clgs/ocnl vsbys in sct sn shwrs.
Downeast sites low VFR clgs. Strong NW winds.
Sat Ngt...all TAF sites VFR. Mdt NW winds, becmg lgt after mdngt.
Sun - Tue Morn...all TAF sites VFR with lgt winds.
Tue Aftn...all TAF sites MVFR clgs. Lgt to mdt E winds.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A gale warning will be up later today through tonight for northwesterly winds gusting up to 40 kt. Seas will build up to 8 to 10 ft overnight in response to the gale.
SHORT TERM: Gale force winds on Sat will dmnsh to SCA by late in the day with winds and seas slowly dmnshg below SCA on Sun.
Winds and seas will then remain below SCA Mon and Tue before increasing to SCA and possibly abv Tue Ngt thru Wed. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of a short fetch 3 to 5 sec and longer swell like 9 to 11 sec groups.
HYDROLOGY
Moderate to heavy rain will continue accelerate snowmelt over the area. The snowpack is rapidly ripening. Heavy rainfall and very saturated soils and standing water could be an issue before water enters the main stem rivers. In the north, main stem rivers will mostly be able to absorb the additional input.
However, the Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk for reaching minor flood level late this week into the weekend. The Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some points on the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far north, the additional water input may be enough to finally move the ice on the St. John river. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Central Highlands (including Baxter & Moosehead Region) into interior Downeast through the day Friday.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ001-002-005-006.
Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ005-006-011- 015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Bonsecours
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:24 AM EDT 1.23 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 08:18 AM EDT 4.73 meters High Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT 1.01 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:49 PM EDT 4.28 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:24 AM EDT 1.23 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 08:18 AM EDT 4.73 meters High Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT 1.01 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:49 PM EDT 4.28 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bonsecours, Quebec, Tide feet
12 am |
2.3 |
1 am |
1.7 |
2 am |
1.3 |
3 am |
1.3 |
4 am |
1.9 |
5 am |
2.8 |
6 am |
3.7 |
7 am |
4.3 |
8 am |
4.7 |
9 am |
4.6 |
10 am |
4 |
11 am |
3.2 |
12 pm |
2.5 |
1 pm |
1.8 |
2 pm |
1.2 |
3 pm |
1 |
4 pm |
1.3 |
5 pm |
2.1 |
6 pm |
2.9 |
7 pm |
3.6 |
8 pm |
4.1 |
9 pm |
4.3 |
10 pm |
3.9 |
11 pm |
3.3 |
St-Jean-Port-Joli
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM EDT 0.85 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 06:24 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM EDT 5.40 meters High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT 0.70 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT 4.64 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM EDT 0.85 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 06:24 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM EDT 5.40 meters High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT 0.70 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT 4.64 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
St-Jean-Port-Joli, Quebec, Tide feet
12 am |
1.9 |
1 am |
1.1 |
2 am |
0.9 |
3 am |
1.3 |
4 am |
2.4 |
5 am |
3.5 |
6 am |
4.5 |
7 am |
5.2 |
8 am |
5.4 |
9 am |
5 |
10 am |
4.2 |
11 am |
3.2 |
12 pm |
2.2 |
1 pm |
1.3 |
2 pm |
0.7 |
3 pm |
0.8 |
4 pm |
1.6 |
5 pm |
2.5 |
6 pm |
3.5 |
7 pm |
4.2 |
8 pm |
4.6 |
9 pm |
4.5 |
10 pm |
3.9 |
11 pm |
3.1 |
Caribou, ME,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE