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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 214 Pm Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Tonight..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft. Areas of fog in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed night..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Thu..S wind to 10 kt rising to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less after midnight.
Sat..SW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.

PZZ100 214 Pm Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A surface ridge remains centered east of the cascades with low pressure offshore producing weak offshore flow. The ridge will weaken through Wednesday for light winds across area waters. A weak frontal system will arrive on Thursday followed by a more vigorous system on Friday. Areas of fog are expected Tuesday and Wednesday morning over the waters.

FXUS66 KSEW 282301 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 301 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
The upper ridge slides eastward today with split upper level flow on Wednesday. Dry weather, colder overnight temperatures, and widespread morning fog will remain during this timeframe. A weak front moves across Western Washington Thursday with a more active pattern Friday into next week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Still a couple of areas of fog out there, otherwise W WA has cleared up nicely, even though there are some mid to high level clouds passing over the western portion of the CWA as per current satellite imagery.

The upper ridge responsible for the current weather pattern moves out of the area tonight, replaced by split flow aloft. This places WA between a weak ridge to the north and a shortwave trough to the south. Without any decisive weather system moving in just yet, dry and stable conditions will hold court, keeping the current weather pattern in place for one more day resulting in yet another overnight/morning period of cold temperatures and foggy conditions Wednesday morning in the same areas as this morning.

A passing frontal system will be the herald of a change in the weather pattern to a far more active one. While not terribly impressive, it will be enough to bring widespread precip to the area, albeit mostly light. While not impacting daytime highs too much, will see a slight upward swing in overnight temps as most locations will see lows remain above the freezing mark Thursday night. A stronger frontal system is expected to follow on Friday, bringing significant valley rain and mountain snow to the area, marking the beginning of a very active weekend. Snow levels will very gradually increase through the day, but remain in the 2000-3000 ft range for the bulk of the day, allowing for snow in the Cascade passes. While current forecast amounts in the Cascades appear to line up with winter weather headline criteria, will opt for wider collaboration with surrounding offices and WPC instead of jumping the gun with any headlines in the afternoon forecast issuance. 18

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
No break in the precip is expected once it starts Friday as Saturday sees an upper level low move southward into W WA keeping wet conditions in place. Enough lingering moisture from this system will remain over the area when another frontal system moves in for Saturday night and Sunday. Both deterministic and ensemble models vary on precip amounts, but just the sheer volume of activity from the near term period to this point in the weekend may give rise to hydrologic concerns. As such, QPF values and possible impacts will need to be monitored. A very weak upper level ridge Monday morning may allow for a very brief break in the action before another frontal system stemming from an upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska moves in Monday afternoon and lingers for the remainder of the forecast period. The big question with this particular system is that models continue to hint at a potential AR scenario, however neither deterministic nor ensemble models can reach a consensus on where the hose will be pointed.

If there is a bright side to any of this, it is that temperatures will warm throughout the period, with highs exceeding 50 returning to the forecast by the end of the period. This will also bolster overnight lows, nudging them up from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.
Lastly, this will also serve to keep the trend of rising snow levels in the forecast. This should transition the passes over to rain by Sunday, as snow levels there should start to exceed 4000 ft. 18

AVIATION
Morning fog concerns have mostly cleared out across terminals this afternoon. Continuing fog will linger around KBFI and KPWT through 22-00Z this afternoon. Most areas that have cleared of fog will see mostly clear/VFR skies this afternoon and evening.
However an area of MVFR clouds will remain over the Strait of Juan de Fuca (close to KCLM likely through the afternoon/evening. Fog is expected to be widespread tonight into Wednesday morning (albeit slightly move elevated than this morning) - as early as 05Z. This will regardless reduce visibilities and CIGs down to IFR/LIFR. Winds at the surface will remain light and variable, with flow aloft remaining southerly.

KSEA...Patchy fog clearing out this afternoon, revealing mostly clear/VFR skies through the evening. LIFR clouds/fog may develop as early as 05Z into the morning Wednesday. Winds light and variable.

HPR

MARINE
The flow will remain offshore through the short term with high pressure to the east, and low pressure to the west. Winds will remain light at around 5 kt through Friday. Seas will also remain benign with 4-6 ft waves. Marine fog will be possible over the Puget Sound and Northern Inland Waters Wednesday morning, given the low- level moisture available. A weak frontal system will pass through Thursday, which will be followed by a more vigorous pattern this weekend into next week. Winds 20 to 30 kt and seas building up to 10 ft or higher appear likely with this system moving through. As confidence increases, headlines will be issued.

HPR

HYDROLOGY
With the upcoming pattern change suggesting more rain in the forecast, area rivers are likely to see rises through the weekend. While extended models have had trouble at arriving at a consensus, making it difficult to get a grasp on the full potential impacts to the area, there is at least enough consistency to suggest that additional hydrologic products may be needed late in the weekend and for the start of next week. Unfortunately, the scope of these products is hard to nail down at this time. Forecasts will need to be monitored for the remainder of the week in the hopes that a singular solution will eventually emerge. 18

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.

PZ...None.

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Steilacoom
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Tue -- 07:01 AM PST     14.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:13 PM PST     7.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:24 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:44 PM PST     13.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:06 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Steilacoom, Washington, Tide feet

Balch Passage
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Tue -- 01:58 AM PST     2.10 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:26 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM PST     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:24 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:33 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:46 PM PST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:24 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:34 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:06 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:23 PM PST     -3.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Balch Passage, Washington Current, knots

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