Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ronald, WA

DISCUSSION
Saturday through Monday: An upper-level trough with a closed low is forecast to track southeastward over the PacNW bringing a stream of cold, dry air into the region this morning and through the weekend (confidence 99%). Per probabilistic guidance of the GFS, GEPS, and ECMWF ensemble guidance, analyzing the 700 and 850 mb frontogenesis, a pronounced cold air advection is forecast to move over the area this morning through the weekend into next week bringing near sub-freezing temperatures for Central Oregon and Wallowa Valley (confidence 85%). Currently, freeze warnings are in effect for those areas. Colder air is expected to remain over the area through the weekend into early next week. Breezy conditions are forecast for Sunday afternoon as this system and cold air advection progresses through bringing gusts up to 25-40 mph along the Cascades, Lower Columbia Basin and Yakima Valley (confidence 55%).

As this system pushes through the area this weekend and remains relatively stagnant over our forecast area, most of the region will see cooler than normal temperatures. Due to relatively low cloud cover and light north-northwesterly winds, Sunday and Monday morning have the potential to see sub-freezing temperatures in the low 20s.
Lower elevation areas in the area are forecast to see temperatures in the mid 20s and mid 30s (confidence 85%). Ames/01

Tuesday through Friday: Mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures will redevelop Tuesday through the remainder of the work week (confidence 55-85%). Ensemble cluster guidance favors upper level ridging building sliding into the region as the upper closed over the Great Basin pushes east. Tuesday into Wednesday, a weak shortwave will track through BC and clip the WA Cascades with isolated light showers (confidence 60-70%).
That said, about 20% of ensemble cluster members depict a stronger shortwave passage that will bring isolated showers to the northern Blue mountains/foothills and Wallowas Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday, upper level ridging will slowly move east across the PacNW while it amplifies poleward (confidence 55-65%).
This will result in dry conditions and afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across much of the forecast area by Friday afternoon. Behind the upper ridge, ensemble guidance does depict upper level troughing developing in the northeast Pacific that will slowly approach the region then slowly move inland next weekend with the next potential round of unsettled weather (confidence 40-55%). Lawhorn/82



AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will be present throughout the period. However there could be passing clouds between 4000-6000 kft. Those clouds are likely to remain in the few to scattered coverage for all airports (Confidence 85%). Visibilities are expected to remain higher than 6 SM.

Winds are currently dying down across the region, however an infrequent gust over 20 kts could occur over the next couple hours for all airports except PSC, RDM. Winds tonight and tomorrow should generally stay less than 11kts for all airports with the exception of the DLS which will see winds in the low teens tomorrow (Confidence 90%). Garty/26

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
PDT 58 32 56 33 / 0 0 10 0 ALW 58 36 57 36 / 0 0 10 0 PSC 63 35 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 61 38 60 34 / 0 20 0 0 HRI 61 34 60 34 / 0 0 10 0 ELN 55 31 56 29 / 20 30 0 0 RDM 54 23 50 22 / 0 0 10 0 LGD 54 30 51 30 / 0 0 10 10 GCD 54 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 62 39 64 37 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
OR...Freeze Warning until 10 AM PDT this morning for ORZ050-511.