Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laporte, MN
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 7:15 PM Moonset 3:57 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laporte, MN
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FXUS63 KFGF 120208 AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 908 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for critical fire weather in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota this afternoon through Monday evening
- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions continue for Tuesday.
- Widespread rain Wednesday though Friday with a low (<5%)
chance for severe weather.
UPDATE
Issued at 908 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
The wind advisory was expired as scheduled with the strongest wind gusts ending. Winds remain breezy and RH values continue in to be very low (18 to 22) across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. There is improvement in the Devils Lake Basin where the Red Flag Warning is scheduled to expire at 10 pm (on track). Other locations will struggle to recover and even when they improve above 25% they are likely to remain below 40% which is a problem for recovery. The timing of the current Red Flag Warnings are on track, so no changes were made.
UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
The greatest impacts from blowing dust though some minor visibility reductions may still be ongoing until sunset. There are still occasional gusts to 45 mph, so the wind advisory continues. Our highs ended up near the 75th/90th percentile of guidance with daily records broken at our main climate sites.
Very low RH values continue (10-15%) and critical fire weather conditions will continue through the evening hours.
Very deep dry mixed layer is limiting instability locally over much of our CWA, though there is enough elevated instability to potentially support high based showers/storms holding together as a weak wave moves to our northwest. Isolated dry thunderstorms may move over the Devils Lake Basin through the evening hours, with localized gusts and dry lightning the main threats. Adjustments to near term trends the main focus of this update.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
Synopsis
As a cutoff low central over Louisiana progresses east as it weakens under the influence of central CONUS ridging to the north/west our dominant upper riding across the northern plains will transition to SW flow aloft. PNW troughing then migrates into the northern Rockies with southerly moisture return building into the upper great lakes states though westward is uncertain and may keep the critical fire conditions in place further into the mid week that originally expected. With the development of a surface low in the Dakotas by mid day Wednesday rain is then forecast to overspread the region Wednesday night through Friday with intermittent breaks/waves of precipitation.
- Tuesday/Wednesday Thunderstorm Threat
In association with the incoming mid week system an EML atop sfc frontal features will provide the ingredients for a low end severe threat in the form of wind and hail. MLCAPE ~1000 J/kg and eff-shore of 15-20kts atop what is likely to be deeply mixed boundary layer (sfc to 850mb+). Overall with no SPC outlook thus far and the parameter space would think it may be limited to a few marginally severe storms. As for the general rain potential there is strong signal for a widespread 0.25 to 0.50 (80% and 50% chance respectively). With the inclusion of likley thunderstorms totals exceeding 1.00 are entirely reasonable especially in more central areas of North Dakota.
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DISCUSSION
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, with the main uncertainty related to blowing dust impacts during periods of stronger daytime winds through this evening and again Monday when southerly winds increase once again. Source regions will vary and we will monitor/amend based on trends. Currently earlier dust impacts have improved so I left mention of our TAFs for now. Wind shear is still expected again tonight as a strong LLJ once again redevelops.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025
- Today/Tonight
RH currently is sitting widely below 15% in the Red River Valley this afternoon as predicted and previously messaged.
Winds similarly while maybe a tad lower than expected are currently 20-25mph for most with a few upper 20s in southeast North Dakota.
Gusts have frequently been in the 30-40 range with a few over 40mph leading to patchy blowing dust out there as evidenced by area webcams presenting yet another hazard with the dry and windy conditions. As the mixed layer continues to mix this afternoon RH wont drop all that much more but could see another 2-3 points drop before recover into the 30-40 percent range overnight. With winds not dropping overnight it has been coordinated to maintain the Red Flag Warning through the overnight despite the RH recovery as fuels will remain dry and very susceptible to fire. RFW in effect through 15z Monday for this evening and poor overnight RH recovery.
- Monday
RH will begin the diurnal drop around 15/16z on Monday with a daily min RH in the 15-20 percent range and winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph more than capable of meeting critical fire weather criteria through the evening. RFW in effect for 15z to 02z as RH falls below 20% and winds exceed 20mph with gusts frequently over 30 mph.
- Tuesday
As the upper ridging begins to shift east the thermal ridging becomes more diffuse allowing the PGF to relax reducing winds slightly and seeing RH only bottom out in the lower 20s. Overall considering critical fire weather conditions to still be on the table but in a reduce spatial and temporal scale for Tuesday.
surrounding near critical messaging will also be needed across the region. One thing to keep a close eye tuesday evening/night will be an inverted trough that will 1) be the focus for some thunderstorm activity in North Dakota but also 2) a wind shift as winds back from the south to northeast/north in north central North Dakota.
Finally on Wednesday more widespread precipitation is expected to overspread the region suppressing the fire threat for the near term thereafter.
CLIMATE
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025
Record High Temperatures:
May 12 (Monday): NWS FGF/UND: 95/1900 KGFK: 91/1977 KFAR: 96/1900 KPKD: 89/1906 KBDE: 85/1991
May 13 (Tuesday): NWS FGF/UND: 92/1932 KGFK: 93/1977 KFAR: 95/1894 KPKD: 91/1900 KBDE: 88/1932
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for NDZ008-016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006-007- 014-015.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for MNZ001>009-013>017- 022>024-027>032-040.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 908 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for critical fire weather in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota this afternoon through Monday evening
- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions continue for Tuesday.
- Widespread rain Wednesday though Friday with a low (<5%)
chance for severe weather.
UPDATE
Issued at 908 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
The wind advisory was expired as scheduled with the strongest wind gusts ending. Winds remain breezy and RH values continue in to be very low (18 to 22) across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. There is improvement in the Devils Lake Basin where the Red Flag Warning is scheduled to expire at 10 pm (on track). Other locations will struggle to recover and even when they improve above 25% they are likely to remain below 40% which is a problem for recovery. The timing of the current Red Flag Warnings are on track, so no changes were made.
UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
The greatest impacts from blowing dust though some minor visibility reductions may still be ongoing until sunset. There are still occasional gusts to 45 mph, so the wind advisory continues. Our highs ended up near the 75th/90th percentile of guidance with daily records broken at our main climate sites.
Very low RH values continue (10-15%) and critical fire weather conditions will continue through the evening hours.
Very deep dry mixed layer is limiting instability locally over much of our CWA, though there is enough elevated instability to potentially support high based showers/storms holding together as a weak wave moves to our northwest. Isolated dry thunderstorms may move over the Devils Lake Basin through the evening hours, with localized gusts and dry lightning the main threats. Adjustments to near term trends the main focus of this update.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
Synopsis
As a cutoff low central over Louisiana progresses east as it weakens under the influence of central CONUS ridging to the north/west our dominant upper riding across the northern plains will transition to SW flow aloft. PNW troughing then migrates into the northern Rockies with southerly moisture return building into the upper great lakes states though westward is uncertain and may keep the critical fire conditions in place further into the mid week that originally expected. With the development of a surface low in the Dakotas by mid day Wednesday rain is then forecast to overspread the region Wednesday night through Friday with intermittent breaks/waves of precipitation.
- Tuesday/Wednesday Thunderstorm Threat
In association with the incoming mid week system an EML atop sfc frontal features will provide the ingredients for a low end severe threat in the form of wind and hail. MLCAPE ~1000 J/kg and eff-shore of 15-20kts atop what is likely to be deeply mixed boundary layer (sfc to 850mb+). Overall with no SPC outlook thus far and the parameter space would think it may be limited to a few marginally severe storms. As for the general rain potential there is strong signal for a widespread 0.25 to 0.50 (80% and 50% chance respectively). With the inclusion of likley thunderstorms totals exceeding 1.00 are entirely reasonable especially in more central areas of North Dakota.
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DISCUSSION
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, with the main uncertainty related to blowing dust impacts during periods of stronger daytime winds through this evening and again Monday when southerly winds increase once again. Source regions will vary and we will monitor/amend based on trends. Currently earlier dust impacts have improved so I left mention of our TAFs for now. Wind shear is still expected again tonight as a strong LLJ once again redevelops.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025
- Today/Tonight
RH currently is sitting widely below 15% in the Red River Valley this afternoon as predicted and previously messaged.
Winds similarly while maybe a tad lower than expected are currently 20-25mph for most with a few upper 20s in southeast North Dakota.
Gusts have frequently been in the 30-40 range with a few over 40mph leading to patchy blowing dust out there as evidenced by area webcams presenting yet another hazard with the dry and windy conditions. As the mixed layer continues to mix this afternoon RH wont drop all that much more but could see another 2-3 points drop before recover into the 30-40 percent range overnight. With winds not dropping overnight it has been coordinated to maintain the Red Flag Warning through the overnight despite the RH recovery as fuels will remain dry and very susceptible to fire. RFW in effect through 15z Monday for this evening and poor overnight RH recovery.
- Monday
RH will begin the diurnal drop around 15/16z on Monday with a daily min RH in the 15-20 percent range and winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph more than capable of meeting critical fire weather criteria through the evening. RFW in effect for 15z to 02z as RH falls below 20% and winds exceed 20mph with gusts frequently over 30 mph.
- Tuesday
As the upper ridging begins to shift east the thermal ridging becomes more diffuse allowing the PGF to relax reducing winds slightly and seeing RH only bottom out in the lower 20s. Overall considering critical fire weather conditions to still be on the table but in a reduce spatial and temporal scale for Tuesday.
surrounding near critical messaging will also be needed across the region. One thing to keep a close eye tuesday evening/night will be an inverted trough that will 1) be the focus for some thunderstorm activity in North Dakota but also 2) a wind shift as winds back from the south to northeast/north in north central North Dakota.
Finally on Wednesday more widespread precipitation is expected to overspread the region suppressing the fire threat for the near term thereafter.
CLIMATE
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025
Record High Temperatures:
May 12 (Monday): NWS FGF/UND: 95/1900 KGFK: 91/1977 KFAR: 96/1900 KPKD: 89/1906 KBDE: 85/1991
May 13 (Tuesday): NWS FGF/UND: 92/1932 KGFK: 93/1977 KFAR: 95/1894 KPKD: 91/1900 KBDE: 88/1932
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for NDZ008-016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006-007- 014-015.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for MNZ001>009-013>017- 022>024-027>032-040.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBJI
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBJI
Wind History Graph: BJI
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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