Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Raft Island, WA

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions will continue this weekend with clouds slowly dissipating rest of Saturday into Sunday. An upper level low offshore will eventually spin a couple of fronts through the region with the chance of showers. The best chance of showers will be Tuesday into Wednesday, and Friday through Saturday. Temperatures will remain around normal this weekend through all of next week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper level low remains centered off the shore of B.C. with a trough just offshore, and southwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure remains offshore with higher heights, keeping the flow cool with onshore flow providing some marine air over the region.

Much of the cloud coverage from this morning remains over the region, particularly in the Cascades and over the Olympics/Pacific Coast/South Interior. The clouds are scattering out in Puget Sound, and areas along the interior water coastline es this afternoon. The clearing will expand to most of the region through the afternoon and evening (with some clouds lingering in the mountains and the coastline). Temps this afternoon have reached the mid and upper 60s in urban areas (cools down to low 60s and 50s in the mountains and coast). The clearing will continue into the overnight/Sunday (will be the sunniest period in the forecast regionwide, and also the warmest day with highs peaking in the mid 70s in Puget Sound/South Interior).

Clouds will increase going into Monday across the region (with some clearing taking place late). By late Monday/Tuesday, a weak frontal system is expected to approach the coast. Models have been pushing the arrival of the front back a few times - it appears the best chance of showers with this front will come Tuesday for the coast (with PoPs greater ranging from 50-70%). There will still be a chance for showers further inland (20-40%), but the chance will increase going into Wednesday as the front progresses through slowly.

Temperatures will remain hold pretty steady around average through the weekend into next week (average for Seattle is 70 degrees as example). Highs will be warmest Sunday with highs approaching mid 70s in Cascade Valleys, Puget Sound and South Interior areas. This will drop down to upper 60s to low 70s Monday and Tuesday. The mountains and coastal areas will be cooler with highs peaking in the 50s to low 60s. The lows will remain in the 40s to low 50s, with the coolest lows Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The front from Tuesday is expected to continue inland across the region Wednesday. PoPs will increase for most remaining areas to 40-60% (with 70-80% chance up in the north Cascades). The showers are not expected to be widespread at this point (as well as amounts of precipitation), but if showers do get convective enough, they may produce some downpours/enhanced rainfall. Best chance for this is up in the north Cascades. The threat for thunder remains under 10% with this system.

Thursday's chances for PoPs are significantly lower (20-30%) and will mostly linger in the morning for any post-frontal activity.
Ensembles track the upper level low finally coming inland on Friday over Washington. This will keep the precipitation chances going through Friday into next weekend. PoPs again appear light at this point (but may change once higher resolution guidance becomes available), and thunder chances remain too low to add to the forecast at this time.

HPR

AVIATION
Southwest flow aloft will continue into Sunday with ridging across the interior Pacific Northwest and weak troughing offshore. VFR conditions for most areas this evening with continued clouds across portions of the Olympic Peninsula and generally east of Puget Sound. Stratus may become more widespread again later tonight into Sunday morning with increased onshore flow at the surface, although confidence is lower in regards to the extent of lower cigs. Generally MVFR and low-end VFR are expected for portions of the area Sunday AM, with the best potential for MVFR cigs along the coast, as well as for OLM and PWT. Localized LIFR/IFR cigs may develop as well, mainly along the coast. VFR conditions are expected by Sunday afternoon. N/NW surface winds will become lighter tonight before increasing again midday Sunday.

KSEA...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. There remains a brief period of potential MVFR Sunday morning, mainly between 12 to 16z, with lower probabilities around 20%. VFR conditions otherwise on Sunday. N/NW surface winds this evening will transition more NE tonight before increasing from the NW midday Sunday. JD

MARINE
Broad high pressure over the northeast Pacific will remain in place through this weekend, maintaining northwesterly flow across the coastal waters. Diurnally driven pushes of westerlies down the Strait of Juan de Fuca will occur each evening with varying degrees of strength. The westerly push this afternoon/tonight will be strong and a Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for the central and east portions of the Strait through early Sunday morning, where frequent gusts of 25-30 kt are possible.

A more active pattern begins on Monday. A weak front will traverse the waters Monday and Tuesday, with additional weak systems expected throughout the week.

Seas are expected to remain below 10 ft into next week. As for the weekend, seas will be 4 to 5 ft and will increase slightly to 5 to 7 ft on Monday, before decreasing once again to 4 to 6 ft.

29/62

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.