Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 9:48 PM   Moonset 5:37 AM

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FXUS63 KDLH 252128 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 428 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet conditions tonight and not as cold with increasing clouds.

- A more active pattern sets up starting Friday with two Colorado lows affecting the region for the weekend and into early next week.

- Rain chances persist into midweek along with warmer temperatures.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 428 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A large area of high pressure was centered over the lower Great Lakes this afternoon and stretched from the Ohio Valley to Hudson Bay. A developing area of low pressure was over eastern Colorado and will be the focus for rainfall affecting the Upper Midwest for Friday into Saturday. Mainly clear skies will continue into this evening before clouds ahead of the low start spreading in overnight. With southerly flow bringing warmer air into the region and increasing clouds, lows will be warmer tonight in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Showers will begin overspreading the region around daybreak Friday starting in the Brainerd Lakes area and reaching the Minnesota Arrowhead by midday. Global models and hi-res CAMs have come into better agreement on the onset timing of the rainfall over the last few packages. Following an initial round of showers with perhaps some embedded thunder, there may be a break through the afternoon and evening before more showers with embedded thunder arrive as the low continues to slowly approach the area. The low tracks from southern Minnesota to Upper Michigan through the day Saturday with additional rounds of showers and storms expected. There may be enough shear for a few stronger organized storms across northwest Wisconsin and the SPC has areas east of a Birchwood to Odanah line outlined in a marginal risk for severe storms. However, with the low looking to track right through this area around midday, the threat may end up more to the south and east our our northwestern Wisconsin zones.

As the first low departs to the northeast Saturday night, a dry period looks likely before more showers and embedded storms arrive with another Colorado low moving out of the Central Plains on Sunday. The 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are fairly close in both the track and speed of the second low and takes it along a similar path as the first one. This second low looks to have a stronger Gulf connection which will lead to heavier rainfall during the Sunday and Sunday night time frame. Part of the warm sector may clip parts of northwestern Wisconsin, so a few stronger storms may be possible Sunday evening, but the timing of the warm front will greatly play into this and if the front doesn't arrive until Sunday night, that will greatly lower any severe threat. Rain lingers into Monday before tapering off Monday afternoon into Monday night. Total rainfall amounts for the two systems are in the 1 to 2+ inch range now with PWATS remaining above the 90th percentile through the weekend. We continue to have parts of the CWA outlined by the WPC for a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Friday into Friday night and again on Sunday. Given the long duration of the event and antecedent dry conditions, flooding is not a high concern currently, but heavier showers and storms may lead to short term minor flooding issues.

Looking ahead to mid next week, the pattern remains active with additional chances for rainfall. Temperatures do look to trend warmer with highs in the 60s away from Lake Superior. This will be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late April/early May.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

High pressure has shifted east of the region early this afternoon and winds speeds are beginning to pick up as a result.
Clouds will begin moving in overnight ahead of our next system.
Any ceiling restrictions will hold off until Friday afternoon, except for BRD where showers will begin by mid to late morning.
These showers will bring MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Low level wind shear will spread across the region tonight and linger into Friday morning as the low begins to move closer to the region. As mixing increases by mid to late Friday morning, LLWS is expected to end.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 428 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

High pressure will continue to shift off to the east tonight.
Low pressure will develop over eastern Colorado and move towards western Lake Superior tomorrow. This will lead to increasing easterly winds at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 23 knots. As the low approaches the region Friday night into Saturday, winds will further increase out of the east to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 32 knots. Winds will weaken a bit Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as the low passes before increasing once again Sunday morning from the east with gales possible for Sunday. A period of conditions hazardous to small craft is expected for late Friday into Saturday. Rain and occasional thunderstorms will accompany the winds as well through the weekend and into early next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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