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FXUS63 KDLH 041144 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 544 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

DISCUSSION
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Key Messages:

1) Low chances (10-30%) for light snow through Tuesday with weak low pressure system moving through to our southwest. Limited to no accumulations are expected.

2) Sharp warming trend for the second half of the week, with temperatures rising to 10 or more degrees above normal.

3) Another low pressure system is poised to affect the Upper Midwest Thursday into next weekend. Warmer temperatures would support a rain/snow mix for the Northland with this system.

Now - Tuesday:

Regional satellite imagery and observations early this morning depicts an tongue of low stratus/fog over much of the western half of Minnesota, with some of this fog nudging into the Brainerd Lakes region. The denser fog is expected to remain southwest of our CWA, but temperatures below freezing could lead to some patchy freezing fog in the Brainerd Lakes vicinity for the first half of the morning.

Weak southeast to south winds off of Lake Superior are expected to lead to transient flurries/light snow across higher terrain portions of the North Shore today, particularly in Lake and Cook counties. Limited to no accumulations and travel impacts are expected. At the same time, a weakly-forced low pressure system currently located over far southern Saskatchewan will dive southeast across the Dakotas and through SW Minnesota today, and into eastern Iowa tonight. As a result, additional light snow and flurries--and very light rain/snow mix in lower elevations near Lake Superior--are expected to develop towards sunset and into tonight across the eastern reaches of the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. I've also kept some lingering light lake- effect precipitation from Bayfield into Iron County into Tuesday as winds turn northwesterly and the temperature difference between the lake surface temperature and 850 mb will be marginally enough to support this lake-effect precipitation. Any additional snow accumulations would be a dusting to a few tenths of an inch at best, with travel impacts remaining minimal to none as well with high temperatures rising into the low to mid 30s both days.

Wednesday:

A 500-mb ridge begins to push into our region on Wednesday, though a clipper system moving across central Manitoba and far NW Ontario will drag a warm front through the Northland, which could bring a few light showers (20-40% chance) predominately to the Borderlands and the Arrowhead daytime Wednesday. High temperatures in the 30s, with a few 40s over central MN should lead to this being a light wintry mix, mainly in the form of rain and snow.
Little to no accumulations are expected.

Thursday - Next Weekend:

The warming trend reaches its climax late this week as the axis of the 500-mb ridge pushes through the Northland on Thursday.
Widespread temperatures of 10 or more degrees above average are expected from Wednesday night through Friday as the ridge swings through, with overnight lows in the mid to upper-20s Thursday morning and upper-20s to low-30s on Friday morning, which could be near-record warm low temperatures. High temperatures on Thursday will reach the low to mid-40s, warmest across central MN and NW WI portions of the CWA, which will also be close to record high temperatures for a few locations (namely, Hayward, WI).
High temperatures cool slightly into the mid-30s to low-40s on Friday.

Global ensembles are in fairly good agreement on an upper-level trough and attendant surface low pushing eastward across the Canadian border with the Dakotas and Minnesota Thursday night and into Hudson Bay by mid to late Saturday, with a cold front sliding through the Northland Friday into Friday night. There is still some small spread in the low track location as it moves through, but largely looks to favor tracking north of the Canadian border.
PWATs with this system are forecast to be 0.25-0.40 inches as this system moves through (roughly 50-80th percentile relative to sounding climatology), so there should be enough moisture to produce light showers as it moves through. Precipitation should start as rain Thursday across north-central MN late Thursday before transition to a rain/snow mix for Friday as precipitation spreads into the Northland and then to all snow by Saturday as cooler air begins to move into the region behind the cold front.
Still too soon to tell regarding specific snow amounts and locations given initial onset of a liquid precipitation type, though NBM 72-hour probabilities of >1" of snow for Thursday- Saturday are only 10-25%.

Cyclonic flow aloft behind this system and temperature differences between Lake Superior and 850mb temperatures around 15-20 degC should lead to lingering lake-effect snow over portions of the South Shore through the remainder of the weekend and possibly into next Monday.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Mainly MVFR ceilings for the main terminals, though there is some spotty VFR conditions near the MN and WI border. One exception is LIFR ceilings and IFR visibilities that have move into BRD as a result of a low stratus and fog layer. Expect improvement back to MVFR conditions at BRD this afternoon. Widespread IFR ceilings return to the region later this evening through the end of the TAF period, with some LIFR ceilings possible, with the highest confidence at HYR as a low pressure system passes southwest of the area. Occasional very light snow may be possible at DLH into northwest Wisconsin this evening into portions of tonight, but confidence was too low to include mention in the DLH TAF, but did include VCSH at HYR where confidence in seeing flurries or snow is slightly higher.

Winds remain light through the TAF period, starting out of the south today before switching to north to northwesterly later this evening and tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 336 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Quiet weather continues over western Lake Superior for today and Tuesday. Light southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 knots develop during the daytime hours today with occasional afternoon gusts to 15 knots. Waves will be less than 2 feet. Winds turn northwesterly for tonight and Tuesday, at 10 to 15 knots during the daytime hours.

Breezier southerly winds on Wednesday and westerly winds on Friday could lead to hazardous conditions over western Lake Superior, particularly for small craft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 35 24 33 18 / 10 20 0 0 INL 33 19 30 17 / 10 0 0 0 BRD 34 21 33 19 / 10 10 0 0 HYR 37 26 37 17 / 10 20 10 0 ASX 39 26 37 20 / 10 20 20 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.

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