Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bena, MN

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bena, MN

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 282342 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 642 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Summary: Critical and near critical fire weather conditions continue across the Northland into this evening, and are likely again Monday afternoon and evening. A chance of thunderstorms builds from west to east beginning Monday night, but especially over the much of the region Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Scattered thunderstorm chances then last into Friday.

A lake breeze can be seen on the KDLH radar moving onshore into typical parts of northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota, and bringing a cool down to those locations after temperatures have hit another day of around 80 by mid-afternoon. These of course are all thanks the continuous ridge centered over the Great Lakes and all the way to the Atlantic Seaboard. The extremely dry air mass under this ridge has combined with the warm temperatures to bottom out afternoon relative humidity down to 13% so far via surface observations in far northeast Minnesota. With winds to 15 mph and the continued dry fuels, per local land agencies, the Red Flag Warning for all of north-central and parts of northeast Minnesota covering today remains in effect.

A slight uptick in dewpoints from more southerly return flow lifts into the Brainerd Lakes area and locations further west overnight. This should help to decrease concerns there down to only near-critical fire weather conditions Monday, but locations further northward are expected to still see the current dry air hang around one more day. The enhanced gradient over the ND/MN stateline area today also moves into the Northland by tomorrow afternoon to allow for increased southerly wind speeds. These conditions prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for Itasca to central St. Louis and the interior Arrowhead northward to be issued covering Monday afternoon and evening for the third day of critical fire weather conditions.

As the ridge breaks down and shifts out of the Upper Great Lakes Monday night, much more moist air associated with a boundary that has been stalled over the northern Plains the last few days moves into our area. This brings the first chances of rain showers and thunderstorms for quite sometime that work west to east Monday night into Tuesday. Forecast model soundings indicated PWATs increasing to 1.25-1.5 inches by Tuesday afternoon for central Minnesota. A high CAPE environment with minimal organized shear aids in at least some confidence for high precipitation thunderstorm potential Tuesday afternoon and evening under diurnal conditions as a shortwave lifts into the region and may provide some additional forcing. The area with the highest potential for heavy rain Tuesday PM is highlighted well in the WPC Marginal Risk as well. Off and on rounds of thunderstorms then last into Friday, much of it being a similar high CAPE and minimal shear environment depending at least partially on daytime heating.

This pattern then may shut off next weekend again with high pressure potentially again setting up over the area.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. Light winds tonight are expected to increase throughout the day tomorrow, with highest gusts near BRD. Thunderstorms are possible later tomorrow evening and will start to be included in the TAFs on the next issuance.

MARINE
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Light east to northeast winds under 15 knots continue over the lake this afternoon. The diurnal winds drop off after sunset and will lessen wave heights, which may reach 2 feet early this evening by late this evening. Continued high pressure will keep a similar pattern in place for Monday, albeit the sustained winds at the head of the lake may be a bit stronger tomorrow afternoon. The first chance at thunderstorms in a while builds over western Lake Superior by Tuesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 49 77 50 77 / 0 0 10 50 INL 56 84 59 80 / 0 0 40 70 BRD 55 84 59 82 / 0 0 40 80 HYR 50 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 30 ASX 48 79 52 83 / 0 0 0 20

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033-034.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for MNZ010>012-018-019-026.

LS...None.

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