Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rosedale, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Light post-frontal shower activity continues this morning across much of western Washington in the wake of an approaching atmospheric river storm system. South to southwesterly winds will continue to pick up this morning, with widespread moderate to heavy rain filling in along the coast by mid morning, and across most of western Washington by the afternoon.

Conditions will become wetter throughout the day today as a strong atmospheric river moves into the Pacific Northwest. This system will impact the region through Wednesday, with a series of impacts through the week. The key messages regarding this system are highlighted below:

* HEAVY RAIN: A strong atmospheric river will move into the Pacific Northwest today, bringing extended periods of moderate to heavy rain to western Washington through Wednesday. Latest forecast models have remained fairly consistent, with the heaviest rainfall arriving today. The moisture plume still looks to briefly shift southward on Tuesday for a lull in activity for some areas before lifting back northward late Tuesday through Wednesday. While areas east of the Olympics will likely see some shadowing at the onset of precipitation, conditions across all of western Washington will be very wet through Wednesday. Areas generally south of Seattle will see 3 to 6 inches of rainfall through Thursday morning in a 72 hour period, with the Olympics and Cascades on track to see 6 to 10 inches of rain in this timeframe. Locally higher amounts are possible over the southern and central Cascades, where amounts could reach 12 inches or more in 72 hours. This is expected to bring significant river flooding to western Washington, with many area rivers forecast to reach moderate or major flood stage by mid-week. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of western Washington through Friday morning.
For more details, see the HYDROLOGY section below.

* WIND: Conditions will be windy area-wide today, with southwesterly winds picking up throughout the day. Winds will peak this evening, with the strongest gusts along the Pacific Coast reaching 50-55 mph. Gusts elsewhere across the interior will reach 40-45 mph at times. Winds will gradually ease into Tuesday, but conditions will remain breezy at times.

* COASTAL FLOODING: Minor coastal flooding remains possible along the Salish Sea coastlines through the first half of the week with high astronomical tides. While the tides will generally remain below or nearing thresholds, heightened river flows or wind effects could exacerbate inundation in some areas around high tide.

In addition, snow levels will briefly lower to near 3500-4000 feet over the mountains Tuesday as the track of the atmospheric river shifts southward, resulting in accumulating snow generally above 4500 feet. The higher mountain passes, including Stevens Pass and White Pass, will likely see a few inches of snow accumulation throughout the day Tuesday which could cause brief slippery travel conditions.

Incoming moist air from the central Pacific will also maintain warmer temperatures across the region through the week.
Temperatures will peak well above normal most days this week, with temperatures in the low to upper 50s across the lowlands.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Unsettled conditions are favored to continue into the weekend, though precipitation amounts will start to taper across western Washington by Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to show potential for a brief break in precipitation for some areas towards the weekend, showing ridging along the western US coast nudging the atmospheric river northward. However, the track of this system remains somewhat uncertain this far out. Forecast models continue to indicate a series of additional systems over the weekend and beyond bringing in additional precipitation and breezy winds to the region, though these systems look much weaker than what we will see early this week.

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AVIATION
Strong westerly aloft is expected over Western Washington as a warm front lifts northward across the area today with a trailing cold front crossing the region late tonight. Predominant low MVFR ceilings in increasing rain are expected into this afternoon.
Further deterioration in ceilings and visibility is expected with the arrival of the warm front...leading to areas of IFR/LIFR ceilings and surface visibility reduced to 2 to 4 statute miles in moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Surface winds will increase by afternoon with south to southwest winds of 20 to 30 knots at times with locally higher gusts. Low level wind shear will also be a consideration...especially 18Z through around 05Z tonight. Heavy rain will lighten up later tonight with another round expected late Tuesday through midweek. Winds will also decrease tonight out of the south 5-10 kt, with another round of gusty winds expected late Tuesday. IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue into Tuesday with slight improvements to upper-end MVFR through the day.

KSEA...Low MVFR in increasing rain expected this morning. Conditions are expected to deteriorate further by late afternoon with occasional IFR and surface visibility reduced to 2-4SM in moderate to locally heavy rain. Surface winds southerly 10 to 15 knots early becoming S/SW 15 to 25 knots by 18Z with gusts 30 to 40 knots expected 21Z through 04Z. Expect rain showers to lighten up as early as 10-12Z with winds decreasing to 5-10 kt at around the same time.
MVFR/IFR ceilings likely to continue into Tuesday with improvements to upper-end MVFR. 27/HPR

MARINE
A warm front will lift northward across the waters today with a trailing cold front arriving tonight. This will lead to gales across much of the waters this afternoon into tonight. High pressure briefly builds into the coastal waters early Tuesday before a secondary frontal system arrives late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The parent low with this system will remain well north of the region, but it will still generate headlines for all waters. The pattern will remain rather active into the second half of the week as a series of fronts move across the area.

Seas will build to 13 to 16 feet today and remain in double digits through midweek before subsiding below 10 feet late Thursday into Friday. 27


HYDROLOGY
A strong atmospheric atmospheric will move through the Pacific Northwest Monday through Wednesday, bringing significant heavy rainfall across the area. 72-hour precipitation amounts between Monday morning and Thursday morning will likely reach 2 to 6 inches across the lowlands, with 6 to 10 inches over the Olympics and Cascades with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches over the central and southern Cascades. Rivers will start to sharply rise on Monday, with many area rivers reaching flood stage by later this evening. Confidence remains high that a widespread significant river flooding event will commence late Monday and continue through much of the week.

Many rivers flowing off the Cascades and the Olympics are forecast to reach Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stage between this evening and Tuesday, where many of them are forecast to remain through Thursday. While some uncertainty does still remain in regards to the exact flood levels and stages through the next week, it will be critical to monitor the forecasts now and through the next seven days. Additional precipitation is also possible Thursday into Friday, which may keep rivers elevated heading into the weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect across all of western Washington through Friday.

With the wet antecedent soil conditions, the landslide threat across the region will increase with this system. Potential has also increased for debris flows over area burn scars, which will continue to be monitored.

Urban and small stream flooding, as well as areas with poor drainage, should be alert to the potential for localized nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. Low water crossings may become impacted or impassable.

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SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County- Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties- Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties- Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast- Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca- Willapa and Black Hills.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST today for Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties- Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for City of Seattle- Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County- Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast- Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County- Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.