Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Kent, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As the Noreaster to our south continues to move east offshore, winds and seas along the coast are subsiding. Will continue the high surf advisory through 8 PM tonight as seas 4 to 7 ft are still expected to be crashing into the coastline along with a threat for rip currents.

Meanwhile, a weak cold front will pass through our area tonight, bringing a few isolated showers through the region. The presentation of showers on radar will likely look better than the precipitation actually reaching the ground as low-level dry air is expected to result in evaporation. Behind the cold front, N-NW winds will pick up in response to a tightening pressure gradient. The elevated winds and increasing clouds should prevent fog from developing in most areas aside from possibly areas further south where winds will pick up later and skies will be a bit clearer.

On Wednesday, an upper-level low begins to dive south through eastern Maine bringing anomalously cool air aloft. As upper- level energy rotates around the upper-low this should aid in the development of some isolated convective showers. Rain showers are most likely but cannot rule out graupel mixing in if there is more robust convection. Some snow may also mix in at the higher elevations. Winds will be blustery Wednesday with gusts 20-30 mph. Overnight Wednesday, gusty winds and showers will continue as the upper-low moves south over the area. Snow showers are also possible Wednesday night but are unlikely to produce any accumulation. How cold temperatures drop will be key as the NBM has much of northern Maine getting to or dipping below 32 but other models show warmer solutions including the NAM which is generally a colder solution. It is possible the NBM could be underdoing the mixing from the elevated winds.



SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A closed low slowly tracks southeast from the Gulf of Maine Thursday and Thursday night. Any showers over eastern zones should tapper off from NE to SE by late Thursday night. There should be gusty NW winds Thursday with gusts up to 25-35mph Thursday and 20-30mph Thursday night. Highs on Thursday should be around 5 degrees below normal and lows Thursday night near normal.

Deep layered ridging builds in on Friday, it should be dry with decreasing cloud cover as a result. Highs on Friday should be near normal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Deep layered ridging builds in Friday night-Saturday night so it should be dry - with the possible exception of maybe a passing shower on Saturday across the North as the surface warm front passes.

The axis of the deep layered ridge exits to the east on Sunday, allowing for an increase in cloud cover. Depending on exactly how fast it moves to the east, cannot completely rule out some showers over far western zones late in the day.

The region is under SW flow aloft Sunday night, then S-SE flow aloft on Monday as a closed low negatively tilts as it approaches from the west. Models differ on the timing of when and where this system becomes negatively tilted, and hence when the associated precipitation moves into the area. The majority of ensembles delay precipitation until Monday, so have limited pops Sunday night to chance, with likely pops on Monday.

The models then continue to differ on the timing/location of the closed low Monday night and Tuesday - this will impact the timing of the end of any precipitation. For now have likely pops mainly for Monday evening then chance pops into Tuesday.

Temperatures should be near normal Thursday night, then above normal Friday-Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR through Wednesday but cigs will approach MVFR at all terminals late tonight and tomorrow morning. Chance of MVFR about 40 % for northern terminals and 20 % for southern terminals. Isolated showers also possible. Winds light and variable through this evening will increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts by Wednesday afternoon.

VFR/MVFR early Wednesday night for northern terminals, becoming MVFR late. VFR for southern terminals. NNW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts. Scattered showers also possible, especially for northern terminals.

SHORT TERM: Thursday.. MVFR or lower probable at eastern terminals and possible at southern terminals. NW winds G20-30KT likely.

Thursday night through Saturday night...Becoming VFR throughout Thursday night. NW winds G20-30KT probable Thursday night, then NW-N winds G15-25KT possible on Friday.

Sunday...Most likely VFR, with a very low chance of MVFR conditions late at far western terminals.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds have subsided below small craft advisory criteria this afternoon but seas remain elevated at 6 to 8 ft.
Seas are expected to continue to decrease through Wednesday morning and remain just above small craft advisory criteria at 4 to 6 ft through Wednesday night. Light winds tonight will increase through Wednesday night to 20 to 30 kts by Thursday morning. Sea surface water temperature are in the 53-55F range from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy and Penobscot bays.

SHORT TERM: There is a 50 percent chance for Gale gusts over the coastal ocean waters Thursday and Thursday night, so in collaboration with GYX, have issued a gale watch during this time frame. SCA conditions are likely with a small chance of gale gusts on the intra-coastal waters. At this time, the chances for gales on the intra-coastal waters is to small to mention in the HWO.

All waters should see SCA conditions on Friday, and possibly into Friday night on the coastal ocean waters. The weekend should feature sub-SCA conditions on all waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052.