Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Kent, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Update...
High pressure will build across the region this afternoon with mostly/partly sunny skies. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper teens north, through the 20s Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
This evening will begin clear enough to see the crescent moon before clouds begin to increase overnight ahead of a small clipper low sliding in from the west northwest. The air will cool quickly through the evening with lows from near zero in some of the colder northern valleys to the teens Downeast likely being reached by around midnight. Increasing clouds will begin to limit cooling after midnight.

Some light snow will begin to push into western areas around midnight then reach the north in the predawn hours on Sunday. By dawn Sunday snow amounts may be approaching 2 inches in parts of Southern Piscataquis, southern Penobscot and Hancock counties with a dusting of light snow over the north. With very cold air in place, snow is expected all the way down to the coast although a bit of rain or sleet may begin to mix in along the immediate shoreline by around sunrise.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Sunday features a fast-moving clipper system that will deliver snow across the area. It is a warm advection situation with limited moisture. The highest QPF will be Downeast while ratios will be fairly high in northern zones. The net result will be widespread amounts in the 2 to 3 inch range. Will go for 3 to 4 inch totals Downeast due to the higher QPF, better lift and track of the surface low. Might be a need for an advisory Downeast, but it is a little early and too close to call now.

The low will quickly proceed into the Maritimes where it will intensify. Snow will wind down in the midday hours for most of the area, perhaps lingering into the afternoon for eastern Aroostook County.

High pressure quickly builds Sunday night with clearing skies.
Cold air advection is not too notable, but fresh snow cover should produce single digits and teens across the area and much of the guidance may be too warm.

The high persists Monday with some rare December sunshine, but clouds will increase in the afternoon ahead of a weakening occlusion. The occlusion will be fighting a strengthening high pressure centered in Labrador and a lot of dry air. CAD is expected to set up. Upper level support also diminishes quickly Monday night and the parent low fills as it moves towards James Bay. This means very limited QPF Monday night and less than an inch of snow is likely.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The weakening occlusion stalls over the area Tuesday and Tuesday night as CAD slowly erodes. A strong frontal inversion will set up as temperatures warm aloft. Highs will be some 5 to 8 degrees warmer than Monday, but thick low clouds will blanket the area all day. These clouds will ensure little decrease in temperatures Tuesday night and some fog may start to develop towards the coast and in upslope terrain such as Piscataquis County.

A cold front stalled to the west of the area Tuesday will see a strong low develop in the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday as a powerful upper trough digs into Texas and the Gulf of Mexico.
This feature and a strengthening subtropical high will draw deep moisture northward Tuesday night into Wednesday night. The surface low is expected to track well west of the area, putting the forecast area in a strong push of warm air reaching the 50s into Wednesday night.

As precip commences later Tuesday, there may be enough cold air remaining at the surface to generate freezing rain, mostly inland as Downeast and the Bangor area should be safely above the freezing mark
After that, rain
heavy at times...will be the story for Wednesday and Wednesday night. All major models are currently showing the warm solution except UKMET. We maintain categorical PoPs in this timeframe for the 3rd straight forecast cycle.

In addition to putting a beating on the the nascent snow cover in the area. This storm offers a variety of hazards in addition to heavy rain. These include high winds for Downeast and potential for coastal flooding issues.

For the rain, while the area has been in a drought, the frozen ground will produce quick runoff and threaten to break up existing river ice. With QPF measured in inches, hydro concerns cannot be ignored.

In terms of winds, the Downeast coast is most threatened by the current prognosis as a low level jet with a magnitude over 70 kts traverses the coast later Wednesday. Such a magnitude is usually associated with power outages.

Astronomical tides are not particularly high...especially Wednesday evening...and that is good news after all of the events that did pair high astro tides and winds last winter.
However, wave runup could be an issue for locations such as the newly renewed Seawall Rd on MDI.

Since the event is still over 5 days out, there is still hope for a more favorable storm track. For example, if the low tracks north across the state rather than west of the state, the worst of the winds/rain/coastal flooding may be east of the forecast area.

There will be strong cold air advection behind the system.
Moisture will freeze up Thursday night, but does not look like a flash freeze at this point. Expect gusty winds and snow showers Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will drop below normal by Friday.

AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this afternoon through early tonight.
MVFR/IFR conditions then develop later tonight with developing snow. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming west/southwest 5 to 10 knots today. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast/east tonight.

SHORT TERM: Sunday...IFR tempo LIFR in snow for all sites. Light winds.
Conditions improving in the afternoon.

Sunday night into Monday...VFR with light winds.

Monday night into Tuesday...Trending towards IFR due to cigs and snow. Chance of freezing rain late. Light winds.

Tuesday night...IFR trending to LIFR or VLIFR likely with a good chance of freezing rain for all sites except the coast. Fog is expected to develop.

Wednesday...IFR to LIFR due to cigs and vis. Heavy rain possible. LLWS increasingly likely as day progresses.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 4 PM for most of the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters. Conditions could then begin to approach small craft advisory levels again later tonight. Light snow developing later tonight.

SHORT TERM: Expect a Small Craft Advisory for Sunday into Sunday evening due to southwesterly winds and seas increasing to as much as 6 to 7 feet. A brief SCA may be needed Tuesday as a prelude to a strong gale
or even storm conditions
Wednesday into Wednesday night. These will be southerly winds and seas could conceivably build towards 15 to 20 feet. After a cold frontal passage Wednesday night, winds turn westerly with speeds slowly diminishing Thursday into Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050- 051.