Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gorst, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A little more marine influence and morning high cloud cover has resulted in cooler temperatures around the region as of early this afternoon.
Onshore flow will increase further today and this will result in a few more degrees of cooling for Sunday with temperatures right around average for the time of year. The synoptic pattern remains fairly static through the early portion of the coming week with zonal flow aloft and light to moderate onshore flow.
This will keep temperatures close to seasonal norms with varying amounts of stratus spreading inland from the coast each night and morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
The pattern turns a little more uncertain toward midweek. A number of the ensembles attempt to amplify upper ridging over the eastern Gulf of Alaska with a downstream trough moving through British Columbia around midweek. More than half of the solutions generate some shower and/or thunderstorm activity over the North Cascades Wednesday or Thursday with non-wetting rain amounts. The potential for lightning is obviously not an optimum forecast from a fire weather forecast perspective, but it will hold temperatures down a bit. Thereafter, there's better agreement amongst the ensembles that upper ridging will rebuild over the region. Probabilistic heatrisk paints much of the interior lowlands with a 40-60% chance of Moderate HeatRisk by Friday and Saturday with widespread high temperatures well into the 80s.

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AVIATION
Westerly flow aloft prevails into Sunday as an upper ridge over the interior West weakens somewhat. The low level flow is onshore. This will pull some IFR stratus partway inland from the coast late night into Sunday morning, but remain mainly west of Puget Sound terminals. The marine is expected to burn back to near the coast Sunday midday with VFR continuing for the remainder of the region.

KSEA...Mostly clear skies will continue into tonight.
Probabilities for stratus reaching the terminal remain fairly low on Sunday morning, but it's gotten close the previous two mornings. Will likely include at least a scattered low layer for a few hours after 12Z Sunday. Surface winds W/NW 7 knots or less this afternoon and evening will back to light S/SW again overnight.

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MARINE
Broad surface high pressure will remain centered over the offshore waters with lower pressure east of the Cascades into next week. This will maintain onshore flow over the next several days and bring diurnally driven small craft advisory strength westerlies to the central and east Strait of Juan de Fuca daily. The push tonight will be a bit stronger with gusts reaching gales at times this evening into tonight.

A series of weak systems passing to the north of the area next week will strengthen onshore flow at times for additional risks of gales along the central and eastern Strait.

Seas across the coastal waters will primarily persist at 4-6 ft into early next week and may become steep at times this weekend under locally driven winds. Seas will then subside to 2-4 ft by Tuesday, before increasing back to 4-6 ft by midweek.

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FIRE WEATHER
Onshore flow has kicked into full gear as marine air funnels in across western Washington. Very isolated areas of critical min RHs are possible in the Cascade zones this afternoon but widespread concerns are not expected - alleviating the threat for elevated fire weather concerns. More benign fire weather conditions will emerge on Sunday and lead into the middle next week. Cooler temperatures and increased moisture with much better humidity recoveries are expected across the region. We're keeping an eye on an upper-trough entering the region around Wednesday-Thursday. Guidance has it positioned mainly towards our north and east but slight (15-20%) PoPs are emerging across the North Cascades and can't rule out a the probability for a few strikes of lightning.

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SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.