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FXUS63 KFGF 060431 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1031 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1030 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Light fog is still lingering in the northern Red River vAlley but vis remains 5 miles or greater, limiting impacts to aviation interests. A combination of opaque cirrus and pockets of mid clouds (and a few lingering pockets of low stratus) are resulting in mostly cloudy skies across much of our CWA. Winds have been increasing and with WAA we are already seeing reports of temps above freezing in our west. Adjustments to trends were warranted to better reflect sky/temp trends.

UPDATE Issued at 716 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

The small area of dense fog that had been lingering over Cavalier County (Langdon) has finally started scouring out with southerly flow increasing. There are still areas of lighter fog lingering in the then norther Red River Valley but other than aviation impacts, there are no longer sensible weather impacts from these reduced visibilities (3 miles or greater). Gradient is continuing to increase and the westerly LLJ upstream is starting to build into western ND (should arrive later tonight/early Tue morning in our west). WAA is increasing along with clouds and it is possible we see evening lows with increasing temps after midnight (at least across eastern ND).

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Key Message

-mid week warmth remains on track

As of mid afternoon, the low clouds look like they will finally erode out of the Grand Forks and Fargo areas. The fog/stratus continues to linger around Langdon, across portions of northwest Minnesota, and within portions of the central and northern Red River Valley. However these areas are shrinking in coverage too, so hopefully the clearing trend will continue. Despite losing this lower cloud cover, there is a lot of upstream cirrus that will spread over the area tonight. Wind speeds are also expected to slowly increase or hold in the 5 to 15 mph range tonight, so not expecting a third night of fog/stratus. The main challenge on Wednesday is how warm it will get. Positives for higher end temperatures are the warmer start to the day and the west to southwest winds (good warming direction). Negatives are how thick any Wednesday clouds may get and if the wind speeds are a little lower than anticipated.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Key Message

-there is still a system for Thursday night through Friday

Both EFI and M-climate show temps near records Thursday with ridging shifting slightly east ahead of an upper wave ejecting east out of the Rockies. As drier air begins to shift in from the southwest cloud cover will temporarily diminish along with strong southerly WAA giving a 40-50% chance of 50s once again (Thursday) across the valley and points west per NBM POE. Trends have shown a general slowing trend with the arrival of the wave Thursday night and thus increasing cloud cover is not expected to arrive until late in the afternoon after peak heating. A sfc low is expected to track to a point between Pembina and Winnipeg by 06z Fri, then northeast into southwest Ontario by 18z Fri.

Starting to see the ECMWF coming around to the other solutions now (it was stronger and further south with the track prior to 12z today). This gives more confidence to the main weather impacts staying along and north of the highway 2 corridor with this system.
This favors rain changing to snow, with precipitation amounts generally around or below a tenth of an inch. As for snow, probabilities along and north of highway 2 for amounts greater than 0.1 inches are generally 40 to 60 percent. Probabilities for amounts greater than 1 inch are 20 to 30 percent across the Devils Lake basin and northern Red River Valley. Northwest winds look to get pretty gusty again late Thursday night into Friday.

Temps fall back much closer to average starting this weekend with highs in the 20s and 30s as upper troughing remains over the Northern Plains. Large variances in clustering show little confidence in the overall evolution of the pattern past this weekend but near to slightly above temps and more active weather seems to be the general thought heading into next week.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Lower ceilings (300-400 FT AGL) are lingering in northwest MN and over Cavalier county ND. LIFR conditions lingering during the first few hours of the TAF period at KTVF before southerly flow finally scours out this stratus layer. THere are still pockets of light fog (3-6sm) lingering at KGFK but this to should show quick improvement early in the TAF period as southerly winds increase due to low pressure building to the west-northwest. VFR should eventually prevail at all terminals in eastern ND and northwest MN later this evening and continue through the end of the TAF period. There is a signal for potential low level wind shear later tonight/early Tuesday morning as a series of southerly then westerly low level jets move over the region. I left this out for now as it is isn't shown to alight over our TAF sites, but it will be worth keeping an eye on.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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