Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Portland, ND
July 3, 2024 12:32 AM CDT (05:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:33 AM Sunset 9:32 PM Moonrise 2:02 AM Moonset 7:08 PM |
Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 030456 AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Wednesday looks like a repeat of today, with morning heating resulting in increasing northwest winds, cloud cover, and a few showers and storms.
- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through the weekend. The first round over the 4th of July is not expected to bring severe weather.
UPDATE
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Most convection has diminished with the loss of daytime heating. There still may be some areas of brief showers as mentioned in previous update. No impacts expected from hazardous weather, nor any changes made to the forecast through tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 712 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Widely scattered showers and weak thunderstorms extend from the southern Red River Valley into Minnesota as of 7 PM. This activity will continue through 9 PM as they push generally toward the east. Not expecting any hazardous weather except for some lighting.
Showers and thunderstorms in western ND also continues east- southeast. This activity is forecast by guidance to generally wane as it nears eastern ND, although some weak convection may survive into the early evening here; again no hazardous weather expected from this.
Otherwise, areas of brief showers may develop tonight as forcing from the upper wave in mb may help force weak convection to life.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis
The 500mb low over central Manitoba will track slowly eastward tonight, reaching central Ontario by 1 pm Wednesday. Another spoke of shortwave energy looks to set up along the Canadian border on Wednesday afternoon along with the continued cool temperatures aloft. The next wave is still on track for Thursday into Thursday night, although the strongest portion is still expected to remain south of this FA (over South Dakota into southern Minnesota). Beyond that, there are additional weaker waves to keep an eye on as well.
Wednesday
Similar ingredients (to today) come into play once again Wednesday after some morning heating. Shortwave energy looks to set up a little further northward than today, this time more so along the Canadian border. Morning sunshine will cause afternoon CAPE values to increase, but 0-6km shear values again will remain on the weak side. 500mb temperatures may even be a degree or two cooler than today. So shower and storm coverage will pick up through the late morning and continue through the afternoon (mainly isolated in coverage along the Canadian border).
Cloud cover is also expected to increase during the peak heating period as will northwest winds.
Several rounds of showers and storms
An active weather pattern remains in place for the end of the week into the weekend. This is due to northwesterly flow aloft, which will have several embedded shortwaves that will propagate through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Each wave will bring a chance for showers, storms. The first wave arrives for the 4th of July on Thursday. Recent guidance has kept the track of the low pressure further south, and as a result kept the heavier rainfall in SD and southern MN. This has reduced rainfall totals for this FA, particularly across the northern half. Probabilities for more then half of an inch of rainfall are about 50% across the south, tapering to less then five percent across the north. One additional problem for evening fireworks may be pop up showers and storms on the evening of the 4th. Afternoon heating will cause steepening lapse rates which when combined with cyclonic flow over the region should be just enough to force showers to develop. Something to monitor as the holiday approaches.
Another wave over the weekend looks to bring more storms and rain on Saturday. CSU machine learning is highlighting our southeastern FA for severe potential. While a cold front will advance to the south and east with about 1000 J/Kg of CAPE in the environment ahead of it, shear looks to be on the weak side. Add in the uncertainty in the timing of the front, there are plenty of unknowns. This leaves a big question mark as to how widespread any showers or thunderstorms may be, not to mention their potential severity. More wrap around showers and weak storms from cyclonic flow remain possible Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, there are hints of a quieter weather pattern into earlier next week due to western US ridging. How quiet it will be depends on the strength of the ridge. If ridging can propagate eastward, we may finally see warmer and drier weather next week. If the ridge remains a bit further off to the west, we would remain in northwest flow, in turn keeping us more active due to the higher likelihood of shortwaves passing through.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Mostly clear skies are forecast over TAF sites through the evening. No impacts to aviation are expected from hazardous weather. Winds will be light under 10 kt out of the west- northwest this evening.
Wednesday will hold another chance (30%) for showers and thunderstorms, highest chances in northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota during the mid to late afternoon (between 20-03Z). At this time, left out of TAFs due to low confidence in any potential thunderstorm impacting a site.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Wednesday looks like a repeat of today, with morning heating resulting in increasing northwest winds, cloud cover, and a few showers and storms.
- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through the weekend. The first round over the 4th of July is not expected to bring severe weather.
UPDATE
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Most convection has diminished with the loss of daytime heating. There still may be some areas of brief showers as mentioned in previous update. No impacts expected from hazardous weather, nor any changes made to the forecast through tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 712 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Widely scattered showers and weak thunderstorms extend from the southern Red River Valley into Minnesota as of 7 PM. This activity will continue through 9 PM as they push generally toward the east. Not expecting any hazardous weather except for some lighting.
Showers and thunderstorms in western ND also continues east- southeast. This activity is forecast by guidance to generally wane as it nears eastern ND, although some weak convection may survive into the early evening here; again no hazardous weather expected from this.
Otherwise, areas of brief showers may develop tonight as forcing from the upper wave in mb may help force weak convection to life.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis
The 500mb low over central Manitoba will track slowly eastward tonight, reaching central Ontario by 1 pm Wednesday. Another spoke of shortwave energy looks to set up along the Canadian border on Wednesday afternoon along with the continued cool temperatures aloft. The next wave is still on track for Thursday into Thursday night, although the strongest portion is still expected to remain south of this FA (over South Dakota into southern Minnesota). Beyond that, there are additional weaker waves to keep an eye on as well.
Wednesday
Similar ingredients (to today) come into play once again Wednesday after some morning heating. Shortwave energy looks to set up a little further northward than today, this time more so along the Canadian border. Morning sunshine will cause afternoon CAPE values to increase, but 0-6km shear values again will remain on the weak side. 500mb temperatures may even be a degree or two cooler than today. So shower and storm coverage will pick up through the late morning and continue through the afternoon (mainly isolated in coverage along the Canadian border).
Cloud cover is also expected to increase during the peak heating period as will northwest winds.
Several rounds of showers and storms
An active weather pattern remains in place for the end of the week into the weekend. This is due to northwesterly flow aloft, which will have several embedded shortwaves that will propagate through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Each wave will bring a chance for showers, storms. The first wave arrives for the 4th of July on Thursday. Recent guidance has kept the track of the low pressure further south, and as a result kept the heavier rainfall in SD and southern MN. This has reduced rainfall totals for this FA, particularly across the northern half. Probabilities for more then half of an inch of rainfall are about 50% across the south, tapering to less then five percent across the north. One additional problem for evening fireworks may be pop up showers and storms on the evening of the 4th. Afternoon heating will cause steepening lapse rates which when combined with cyclonic flow over the region should be just enough to force showers to develop. Something to monitor as the holiday approaches.
Another wave over the weekend looks to bring more storms and rain on Saturday. CSU machine learning is highlighting our southeastern FA for severe potential. While a cold front will advance to the south and east with about 1000 J/Kg of CAPE in the environment ahead of it, shear looks to be on the weak side. Add in the uncertainty in the timing of the front, there are plenty of unknowns. This leaves a big question mark as to how widespread any showers or thunderstorms may be, not to mention their potential severity. More wrap around showers and weak storms from cyclonic flow remain possible Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, there are hints of a quieter weather pattern into earlier next week due to western US ridging. How quiet it will be depends on the strength of the ridge. If ridging can propagate eastward, we may finally see warmer and drier weather next week. If the ridge remains a bit further off to the west, we would remain in northwest flow, in turn keeping us more active due to the higher likelihood of shortwaves passing through.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Mostly clear skies are forecast over TAF sites through the evening. No impacts to aviation are expected from hazardous weather. Winds will be light under 10 kt out of the west- northwest this evening.
Wednesday will hold another chance (30%) for showers and thunderstorms, highest chances in northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota during the mid to late afternoon (between 20-03Z). At this time, left out of TAFs due to low confidence in any potential thunderstorm impacting a site.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KGFK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGFK
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGFK
Wind History graph: GFK
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Fargo, ND,
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