Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Portland, ND

UPDATE
Issued at 718 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Models were correct in showing the rapid development of t-storms from southwest into northeast ND and far northwest MN overnight.
Few hailers as well. Now a blob of numerous storms from Bismarck area to Grand Forks and even to Valley City. Short term models do indicate though this afternoon there should be enough sun and differntial heating to re-intensify the surface boundary roughly Roseau-Hillsboro-Valley City axis and therefore keep the severe threat as forecast for late today and evening.



DISCUSSION
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Synopsis

The upper level ridge axis extends across our region, with SW beginning to build over the western Dakotas ahead of a deepening upper level trough in the Northern Rockies/Pacific NW. This trough passage and the associated front will bring the next round of organized showers and thunderstorms (and severe risk) to our region Monday, but may also draw in additional smoke aloft and potentially a brief period of surface level smoke behind the cold front. This trough becomes a more dominate feature for our region through the week as it stalls and deepens in Canada, and flattens the larger scale ridging. This will support temperatures in seasonal ranges for most days next week (+/1 1 standard deviation of normal), and a break from the much hotter temperatures in the 90+ range through next weekend. The tendency for at most very weak mid level waves in mid/upper level westerly or weak northwest flow lowers predictability for any periods when measurable precipitation may occur and any thunderstorm impacts after Monday.

Severe Weather Risk Tonight/Monday Morning

Initially strong capping in the 850-700MB layer and the lack of organized forcing should limit the potential for thunderstorm initiation through this evening. Better signal for thunderstorm arrives as forcing increases as the cold front moves into the region while a LLJ/elevated WAA remain in place Monday morning (generally 6am-10am). Elevated instability and increasing effective shear could support a large hail/damaging wind threat with thunderstorms that develop Monday morning.

Severe Weather Risk Monday Afternoon/Evening

CAMs continue to show ongoing elevated shower and thunderstorms through Monday afternoon as the main trough moves across the region.
If smoke aloft is too thick or mid level clouds/elevated storms linger, severe threats may remain isolated/marginal in nature with stronger capping in place. However where there is more clearing, CAMs are showing a signal for EML development ahead of the front with strongly sheared turning hodographs supportive of supercells.
There should be enough forcing with the trough and front in that scenario for the CAP to be eroded near the frontal zone, and a more organized severe threat in the afternoon/evening. CAMs do show the stronger UH tracks/supercell type signal with some showing bowing type MCS clusters and this reflects the higher level scenario that is conditional on better surface based destabilization.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 718 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Main zone of thunderstorms will remain from Bismarck area up to Grand Forks to Roseau. TRF and DVL affected as well. In this zone variable conditions with ocnl ceilings into MVFR range with scattered t-storms. A few showers or t-storms into Fargo area look increasingly likely by mid morning but clears out this aftn before chance of storms return Fargo area late today.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.