Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Portland, ND

UPDATE
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Mainly high clouds continue across the region (some pockets of mid level clouds have filled in across the north). There are some breaks and thinner transient spots for aurora viewing, though these don't always last very long. Winds have increased with the 925MB CAA behind the front moving into the northern RRV (some gusts around 30 mph). Overall, forecast remains on track, with near term adjustments made.

UPDATE Issued at 717 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

There is a signal for strong CAA at 925 mb immediately behind the approaching front and gusts 20-27kt have been reported at times upstream from our CWA In addition, while the initial push of CAA will have passed, the shift to northerly winds in the valley may support continued breezy conditions into the night. I made some adjustment to better reflect wind timing and periods of breezy winds this evening/overnight.

There is a lot of interest in the potential for clearing tonight due to the potential for active aurora as forecast from NOAA Space Weather. Current high based clouds upstream will tend to fill in then transition east, but upstream a more definite period of clearing with subsident behind the leading mid level wave should support clearing northwest to east, but at least some cloud cover may stubbornly hold in our east during potential aurora viewing later tonight. Better chances for clearing will tend to be in northeast ND after 1-3 AM CDT based on current trends.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Synopsis

The upper level ridge starts to break down and a weak low pressure system moves through this weekend to bring us a slight chance for precipitation. During the work week a ridging pattern will set back up to keep us dry during the week.

The upper level ridge will break down this evening and begin to flatten. The Northern Plains will be in a brief dry westerly flow for Friday before a weak low pressure system gives us a slight chance for precipitation this weekend. NBM paints a 30 percent chance for exceeding 0.25 inches over Northwest Minnesota and the Angle Inlet area. If this system takes a more southern path then chances would increase further south in the upper portions of West Central Minnesota. However, the dry air from Friday and the weaker forcing may prevent any precipitation from reaching ground or may have a brief shower overnight when the air becomes more saturated. I wouldn't be surprised if the Northern portion of the Lake of the Woods area gets a few hundredths.

After this weekend a stronger ridge is setting up over the Northern Plains. This area of high pressure will give us our chances for widespread frost/freeze potential in the morning.
Temperatures look to be in the upper 20's and low 30's as a colder airmass starts to make its way down from Canada. With the high pressure in place radiational cooling will be pretty efficient giving us a higher chance to see those lower temperatures and greater frost freeze potential into the overnight hours.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN. Mid level clouds will track near the US/Canada border with a few high based showers (mainly virga) as the mid level wave passes early in the TAF period.

Winds are already increase from the north-northwest behind the front in northeast that is now moving into northwest MN around across southeast ND, with a chance for periodic gusts 25-30kt immediately behind the front. All locations should see decreasing winds during the day Friday as surface high pressure builds east, becoming calm (or light and variable) Friday evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.